par tita » 03 nov. 2025, 15:48
Il y a 5 ans, je postais ceci:
tita a écrit : ↑21 févr. 2020, 17:53
En illustration:
IN 2018 A new word entered Silicon Valley’s lexicon: the “techlash”, or the risk of a consumer and regulatory revolt against big tech. Today that threat seems empty. Even as regulators discuss new rules and activists fret about the right to privacy, the shares of the five biggest American tech firms have been on a jaw-dropping bull run over the past 12 months, rising by 52%. The increase in the firms’ combined value, of almost $2trn, is hard to get your head round: it is roughly equivalent to Germany’s entire stockmarket. Four of the five—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft—are each now worth over $1trn. (Facebook is worth a mere $620bn.) For all the talk of a techlash, fund managers in Boston, London and Singapore have shrugged and moved on. Their calculus is that nothing can stop these firms, which are destined to earn untold riches.
This surge in tech giants’ share prices raises two worries. One is whether investors have stoked a speculative bubble. The five firms, worth $5.6trn, make up almost a fifth of the value of the S&P 500 index of American shares. The last time the market was so concentrated was 20 years ago, before a crash that triggered a widespread downturn. The other, opposite concern is that investors may be right. The big tech firms’ supersized valuations suggest their profits will double or so in the next decade, causing far greater economic tremors in rich countries and an alarming concentration of economic and political power.
La suite de l'article est payant... Mais l'introduction est pessimiste. Pile on perd, une grosse bulle spéculative éclate. Face ils gagnent, la "big tech" devient si puissante qu'elle prend le contrôle politique et économique.
A l'époque, la capitalisation boursière combinée de ces 5 géants de la tech avait augmenté de 52% en 12 mois... Une augmentation de $2'000 mia. Leur valeur combinée atteignait alors $5'000 mia.
5 ans plus tard, ces mêmes 5 géants atteignent désormais $15'500 mia de capitalisation boursière, soit 3 fois plus... Mais à ces 5 se sont rajoutés Nvidia ($5'000 mia), Tesla ($1'500 mia), Broadcom ($1'700 mia) ou encore Oracle ($750 mia) Soit en tout $24'500 mia de capitalisation boursière.
C'est une concentration assez dingue, parce que ça représente 40% du S&P500 dans 9 entreprises, toutes liées à la Tech, sur les 500 de cet index. C'était 20% il y a 5 ans...
The last time the market was so concentrated was 20 years ago, before a crash that triggered a widespread downturn.
C'est ce que disait le journal "The Economist" il y a 5 ans, lorsque la concentration représentait 20%... Loin d'avoir éclaté, ce qui semblait alors être une bulle a encore plus grossi.
Il y a 5 ans, je postais ceci:
[quote=tita post_id=2296176 time=1582304005 user_id=95]
En illustration:
[img]https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/print-cover-full/print-covers/20200222_cna1280.jpg[/img]
[quote]IN 2018 A new word entered Silicon Valley’s lexicon: the “techlash”, or the risk of a consumer and regulatory revolt against big tech. Today that threat seems empty. Even as regulators discuss new rules and activists fret about the right to privacy, the shares of the five biggest American tech firms have been on a jaw-dropping bull run over the past 12 months, rising by 52%. The increase in the firms’ combined value, of almost $2trn, is hard to get your head round: it is roughly equivalent to Germany’s entire stockmarket. Four of the five—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft—are each now worth over $1trn. (Facebook is worth a mere $620bn.) For all the talk of a techlash, fund managers in Boston, London and Singapore have shrugged and moved on. Their calculus is that nothing can stop these firms, which are destined to earn untold riches.
This surge in tech giants’ share prices raises two worries. One is whether investors have stoked a speculative bubble. The five firms, worth $5.6trn, make up almost a fifth of the value of the S&P 500 index of American shares. The last time the market was so concentrated was 20 years ago, before a crash that triggered a widespread downturn. The other, opposite concern is that investors may be right. The big tech firms’ supersized valuations suggest their profits will double or so in the next decade, causing far greater economic tremors in rich countries and an alarming concentration of economic and political power.[/quote]
La suite de l'article est payant... Mais l'introduction est pessimiste. Pile on perd, une grosse bulle spéculative éclate. Face ils gagnent, la "big tech" devient si puissante qu'elle prend le contrôle politique et économique.
[/quote]
A l'époque, la capitalisation boursière combinée de ces 5 géants de la tech avait augmenté de 52% en 12 mois... Une augmentation de $2'000 mia. Leur valeur combinée atteignait alors $5'000 mia.
5 ans plus tard, ces mêmes 5 géants atteignent désormais $15'500 mia de capitalisation boursière, soit 3 fois plus... Mais à ces 5 se sont rajoutés Nvidia ($5'000 mia), Tesla ($1'500 mia), Broadcom ($1'700 mia) ou encore Oracle ($750 mia) Soit en tout $24'500 mia de capitalisation boursière.
C'est une concentration assez dingue, parce que ça représente 40% du S&P500 dans 9 entreprises, toutes liées à la Tech, sur les 500 de cet index. C'était 20% il y a 5 ans...
[quote]The last time the market was so concentrated was 20 years ago, before a crash that triggered a widespread downturn.[/quote]
C'est ce que disait le journal "The Economist" il y a 5 ans, lorsque la concentration représentait 20%... Loin d'avoir éclaté, ce qui semblait alors être une bulle a encore plus grossi.