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Les prix bas du lithium pèse toujours sur l'essor des projets miniers

RFI le : 27/04/2025 Par : Marie-Pierre Olphand

La société Atlantic Lithium qui opère au Ghana demande des concessions fiscales aux autorités en raison de l'évolution du marché ces deux dernières années. À l'instar de la société australienne, tous les investisseurs pâtissent de l'offre excédentaire qui a fait s'effondrer les prix de ce métal clé des batteries électriques depuis plus de deux ans. Ceux qui misent sur le continent africain ne sont pas épargnés.

Comme l'opérateur australien présent au Ghana avec le projet Ewoyaa, tous les investisseurs avaient tablé sur un boom de la demande en lithium pour alimenter la transition énergétique et accompagner le développement des véhicules électriques.

Mais rares sont ceux qui ne déchantent pas : depuis leur pic fin 2022, les prix ont chuté de plus de 80%. Ils ont atteint en avril un plus bas depuis quatre ans. Selon les projets, l'impact se ressent sur le calendrier de mise en production, voire sur la viabilité économique ou, sur les recettes, pour les mines déjà en activité.

Reprise des ventes de véhicules en Chine

Les ventes de véhicules électriques ont augmenté de 40% en Chine en un an, selon la China Passenger Car Association. Cela a joué sur la demande en lithium. Entre 2023 et 2024, elle a augmenté de près de 30%, selon les services géologiques américains (USGS) – soit 220 000 tonnes contre 170 000 tonnes en 2023.

L'offre minière a cependant encore été supérieure aux besoins en 2024 et cela ne devrait pas changer cette année, selon les analystes du cabinet CRU Group cité par l'agence Bloomberg, même si plusieurs mines en activité ont réduit leur capacité de production depuis 2023 d'environ 200 000 tonnes pour tenter de redresser les cours.

Le lithium attire toujours

Les difficultés sont les mêmes pour tous les investisseurs, et plusieurs projets dans le monde ont été retardés ou annulés l'année dernière, selon les données de l'USGS. L'année dernière, à titre d'exemple, le chinois Ganfeng, qui développe la mine de Goulamina au Mali, avait annoncé sa volonté de revoir certains de ses investissements sans spécifier lesquels.

Mais le lithium attire toujours. L'opérateur chinois Zijin Mining Group a annoncé en début d'année son intention de produire d'ici un an du lithium en République démocratique du Congo même si ce calendrier pourrait être remis en cause en raison d'un litige sur la licence d'exploration entre la société publique congolaise en co-entreprise avec Zijin et l'australien AVZ Minerals.

Le Zimbabwe, pays qui figure dans le top 5 des producteurs de lithium au niveau mondial, n'a pas levé le pied, au contraire, ses capacités de production ont augmenté l'année dernière.

Chile moves forward with lithium projects in three salt flats

Reuters | April 22, 2025

Chile’s government said it is moving forward with a simplified process to award lithium contracts in three salt flats, the mining ministry said on Tuesday.

The agency stated that it has accepted applications from Eramet in the Agua Amarga salt flat; from Eramet, Quiborax, and state-copper giant Codelco, for the Ascotan salt flat; and from the Caliche Kairos consortium for the Coipasa salt flat.

Leftist President Gabriel Boric introduced a plan to boost state control over lithium, a light metal key in electrical vehicles and the energy transition, in 2023 and form public-private partnerships to expand the industry.
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Argentina aims to boost lithium production by 75% in 2025, sees no risk from trade war

Reuters | April 8, 2025

Argentina, the world’s fifth-largest lithium producer, expects to produce 130,800 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2025, a 75% increase from 2024, the Argentine Chamber of Mining Companies (CAEM) said Tuesday.

The boost in production is expected to mostly come from new operations in Salta and expansions in Catamarca and Jujuy, the northern provinces with the largest lithium operations, according Alejandra Cardona, executive director of CAEM.

Argentina has six active lithium operations, four of which recorded production of 74,600 tons of LCE in 2024, 62% higher than in 2023, according to Cardona. South America has the world’s largest identified resource of lithium, spread between Bolivia, Argentina and Chile and is a key metal in electrical vehicles, batteries and the energy transition.

“The higher volumes (in 2024) are due to the expansion of operations at Salar de Olaroz, the Fenix mine, and the ramp-up carried out by Cauchari Olaroz,” Cardona said, adding that production also began at the Sal de Oro operation that opened in October 2024.

In a presentation by CAEM and the International Lithium Association (ILiA) in Buenos Aires, industry leaders said the Argentine mining industry will not be seriously affected by US President Donald Trump’s tariff measures.

Jorge Mora, ILiA’s representative in South America, said he does not expect a drop in consumption.

“The largest consumer of lithium is China, and the largest number of cars are produced in China, and the largest consumption of cars is in China. So, that’s outside of Trump,” Mora told Reuters, praising Argentina’s economic direction under libertarian President Javier Milei, who promoted tax benefits to attract investment.

Roberto Cacciola, president of CAEM, told Reuters that he doesn’t think Argentina will be “badly affected” by the trade war and it could potentially open up new markets for Argentina.

“The negative effects could be linked to a temporary drop in oil prices, a lower value of exports, and some difficulties for the aluminum and steel sectors,” Cacciola said, adding that in terms of energy, agriculture and mining Argentina “could face some shocks, but I don’t see any major consequences.”

Liontown begins underground production at Kathleen Valley lithium project in Australia
The development positions the mine as Australia's first underground lithium operation.

April 10, 2025

Battery minerals provider Liontown Resources has initiated underground production at the Mt Mann orebody of the Kathleen Valley lithium operation in Western Australia.

This development is a pivotal step in transitioning from open-pit to underground operations throughout fiscal year 2026 (FY26). It positions the mine as Australia’s first underground lithium operation.

The commencement of underground production at Kathleen Valley is set to offer distinct advantages over traditional open-pit operations.

This includes cleaner ore extraction by minimising ore dilution from waste contamination. It also enables higher lithia recovery and better ore fragmentation, enhancing overall throughput efficiency.

Liontown managing director and CEO Tony Ottaviano said: “The successful commencement of underground stoping at our Kathleen Valley Lithium Operation on schedule is a proud milestone for Liontown.

“This achievement was made possible by advanced planning, the dedication of our team and the support from our mining partner, Byrnecut, ensuring the first stope blast at Mt Mann proceeded as planned.”

In March, trials validated the processability of the underground ore using previously extracted development ore.

These trials revealed a head grade of approximately 1.5% lithium oxide and recoveries of more than 70%, with the potential for further enhancements through ongoing recovery improvement projects.

The company’s focus remains on advancing the mine development, which includes progressing the decline, opening additional working areas and progressively ramping up the underground operations.

The near to mid-term objective for underground operations is to safely focus on high-margin ore and optimise value.

The mill is due to be fed exclusively by underground output supplemented by stockpiles by the fourth quarter of FY26.

Ottaviano added: “As part of normal preparations and planning, we undertook underground ore trials in the March quarter, in advance of first stoping, to understand the optimal plant performance settings. The trials delivered results in line with our study work, which reinforces our confidence in transitioning to full underground operations.”

Liontown initially began lithium production at the Kathleen Valley lithium project in July 2024.

Chile’s lithium reserves are 28% higher than earlier estimates, studies reveal
Chile’s Salares Altoandinos greenfield project comprises the La Isla and Aguilar salt flats in the northern Antofagasta region.

April 8, 2025

Chilean national mining company ENAMI has revealed that its Salares Altoandinos project could increase the country’s lithium resources by 28%.

The announcement was made during CESCO Week 2025, a key event for mining sector leaders, based on data from an exploration campaign and resource estimate conducted by the consultancy Amphos 21 and reviewed by Montgomery & Associates.

The Salares Altoandinos project, comprising the La Isla and Aguilar salt flats in the northern Antofagasta region, has been confirmed to hold 3.05 million tonnes (mt) of lithium.

Salar La Isla’s resources surged by 150% to 2.13mt of lithium, while Salar Aguilar saw a 40% rise in resources to 920,000 tonnes (t).

ENAMi executive vice-president Iván Mlynarz said: “These results are important because we are moving from potential resources to certified and reviewed by a third party, and this confirms that Salares Altoandinos is a global project.”

Chile’s current lithium resources, primarily from Salar de Atacama, stand at 11mt, as per the United States Geological Survey.

The Salares Altoandinos project, which also includes the Salar Grande, is in its final phase of selecting a development partner.

Mlynarz added: “These are important data to keep in mind because we are weeks away from establishing the public-private partnership for this project that will bring lithium to the country from the Atacama Region.”

Companies from China, France, South Korea, England and Australia, including BYD Chile, Eramet Chile, Posco Holdings and Rio Tinto Mining and Exploration, are participating in the negotiations.

Additionally, CNGR Advanced Material and LG Energy Solution have shown interest in financing.

A key milestone for the Salares Altoandinos project will be the submission of a Special Operation Agreement or Contrato Especial de Operación to the Comptroller General of the Republic for approval. This follows a successful indigenous consultation process.

Près de Nancy, recherche et industrie planchent sur la valorisation du lithium

AFP le 12 avril 2025

Comment extraire le lithium, indispensable à la transition énergétique, à partir des roches issues des gisements européens? Dans une vaste usine-pilote près de Nancy, des chercheurs planchent sur ce défi aussi technique que stratégique, pour réduire la dépendance de la France aux importations du précieux métal.
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Les actions de Zinnwald Lithium augmentent alors que le gouvernement de Saxe réaffirme son soutien

Le 02 avril 2025

Le développeur européen du projet intégré de lithium de Zinnwald, en Saxe, à la frontière germano-tchèque, a également publié récemment l'étude de préfaisabilité et a indiqué que sa demande de statut stratégique n'avait pas abouti.

Zinnwald a déclaré mercredi qu'en réaffirmant son soutien au projet, le gouvernement du Land a souligné son importance stratégique pour décrocher un approvisionnement durable et indépendant en lithium.

Le ministre de l'économie de Saxe, Dirk Panter, a souligné la nécessité de "[réduire] la dépendance à l'égard des matières premières" en raison des tensions internationales croissantes, et a "confirmé que le gouvernement de Saxe soutiendra activement le projet et lui a accordé une priorité élevée".

Anton Du Plessis, directeur général de la société, a déclaré que cette nouvelle "renforce notre confiance dans la réalisation du projet de lithium de Zinnwald", ajoutant : "Nous nous réjouissons de poursuivre notre étroite collaboration avec le gouvernement de Saxe et d'autres parties prenantes : "Nous nous réjouissons de poursuivre notre étroite collaboration avec les autorités et les parties prenantes, car nous voulons devenir un fournisseur clé de lithium pour les secteurs européens des batteries et des véhicules électriques.

Lundi dernier, Zinnwald avait déjà annoncé la publication de l'étude de faisabilité, qui "confirme la viabilité technique et financière d'une exploitation minière et d'un traitement intégrés pour le projet de lithium de Zinnwald, détenu à 100 %".

L'étude donne au projet une valeur actuelle nette avant impôt de 3,3 milliards d'euros à un taux d'actualisation de 8 %, un taux de rendement interne après impôt de 23,6 % et un flux de trésorerie disponible après impôt de 12,1 milliards d'euros pour la durée de vie de la mine.

Elle a également indiqué que le projet disposait d'une première réserve de minerai de 128 tonnes métriques titrant 4 428 parties par million d'oxyde de lithium, avec une production de pointe prévue de 35 100 tonnes par an d'hydroxyde de lithium monohydraté.

Cette annonce fait suite à celle, moins positive, faite par Zinnwald le 25 mars, selon laquelle sa demande de statut stratégique au titre de la loi sur les minéraux bruts critiques (Critical Raw Minerals Act) n'a pas abouti.

La société s'est déclarée "déçue", mais a fait remarquer que "cette désignation ne confère en soi aucun avantage spécifique en termes de financement ou d'aide quantifiable spécifique ou d'accélération des délais d'obtention des permis et d'approbation des projets".

"Malgré ce résultat, Zinnwald Lithium reste optimiste quant à ses perspectives à long terme, car il s'agit de l'un des rares projets de production de lithium durables à court terme en Europe, dont les ressources sont suffisamment importantes pour contribuer de manière significative à l'approvisionnement européen", a déclaré la société.

Lithium Americas confirms Thacker Pass Phase 1 FID, closes investment from Orion
The company has completed funding for Thacker Pass Phase 1 construction, with project completion targeted for late 2027

Swagath Bandhakavi 2nd Apr 2025

Lithium Americas Corporation has confirmed the final investment decision (FID) for the first phase of its Thacker Pass lithium project in Humboldt County, Nevada.

The decision follows the closure of a $250m investment by Orion Resource Partners, finalising the equity requirements to support the project’s construction and development.

The investment from Orion Resource Partners comprises $195m in senior unsecured convertible notes and a $25m payment tied to future mineral production and gross revenue from the site.

An additional $30m in convertible notes has been committed through a delayed draw facility, contingent upon specified conditions being met.

These funds complete the equity financing needed to satisfy the requirements under a previously announced $2.26bn loan facility extended by the US Department of Energy (DOE).

General Motors and Lithium Americas, the joint venture (JV) partners for Thacker Pass, made the FID simultaneously with the funding closure. The former contributed $100m to the joint venture, while Lithium Americas provided $192m in cash.

The financial contributions align with the terms of the equity support required to unlock the full DOE loan under the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program.

Lithium Americas president and CEO Jonathan Evans said: “Today marks another important milestone in our journey to bring Thacker Pass to production.

“With our JV Partner, GM, we announced FID for Phase 1 alongside our other exceptional partners – the US DOE and Orion. Together, we will develop a US-produced lithium supply chain to reduce American dependence on foreign suppliers for critical minerals.”

Lithium Americas has now secured full project-level and corporate-level funding for Phase 1 construction activities at Thacker Pass. The company is targeting completion of the first phase by late 2027.

Thacker Pass began initial construction in March 2023 following receipt of a Record of Decision from the US Bureau of Land Management in January 2021. The site, located at the southern edge of the McDermitt Caldera, lies approximately 96.6km northwest of Winnemucca in northern Nevada.

The project is expected to be developed over five phases, each contributing 40,000 tonnes per year of battery-grade lithium carbonate capacity.

At full scale, Thacker Pass is anticipated to achieve a nominal production rate of 160,000 tonnes per year. The total projected mine life is 85 years.

General Motors has secured an offtake agreement for all production from Phase 1 for a 20-year period. The agreement also includes 38% of Phase 2 production volumes over the same duration, along with a right of first offer on the remainder of Phase 2 output.

Rio Tinto in talks with Congo to develop lithium deposit, Bloomberg News reports

By Reuters March 28, 2025

Rio Tinto, opens new tab has held talks with the Democratic Republic of Congo about developing one of the world's biggest hard rock lithium deposits, Bloomberg News reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.
The discussions, which are in the preliminary stages, focus on Rio Tinto getting involved in transforming the Roche Dure resource into a lithium mine, the report added.

The world's largest iron-ore miner has been shifting its focus to critical minerals and battery metals like lithium, capitalizing on a price plunge caused by oversupply.

Tianqi Lithium returns to loss on prolonged battery metal rout

Bloomberg News | March 26, 2025

Tianqi Lithium Corp. warned volatility in lithium product prices and growing geopolitical risks may cloud its outlook as it swung to a first full-year loss since 2020 amid a prolonged battery metal rout.


The Chinese lithium giant posted a net loss of 7.9 billion yuan ($1.1 billion) in 2024, citing weaker prices and impairment due to changes in constructions plans, according to a filing to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. That compared with a net profit of 7.3 billion yuan the year before.

Although Tianqi’s production and sales volumes of lithium compounds and derivatives increased year-on-year in 2024, the price of lithium products experienced a “significant decline” due to market volatility, the company said in the statement. That pushed gross profit from the products sharply below 2023 levels, it added.

“The recent international environment and macro economic situation including the policy aspect did result in a bit of pressure or changes,” Tianqi chairwoman Jiang Anqi said at a briefing on Thursday. “But we think governments around the world are still supportive toward the development of the new energy vehicles and energy storage industries.”

The company’s shares closed down 0.8% in Shenzhen on Thursday.



Tianqi’s loss shows the struggle faced by the battery metals industry, with lithium prices collapsing almost 90% from a peak in 2022. The supply glut, accompanied by disappointing demand growth for electric vehicles, is driving companies worldwide to rein in spending and cut output.

Meanwhile, the company also flagged the rising trend of trade protectionism in the industry globally amid the increasing strategic importance of lithium.

“Some countries are adopting measures such as subsidies and tariff barriers to support domestic enterprises. Such actions may pose challenges to Chinese companies’ overseas investments and operations,” the company said.

In January, Tianqi halted construction of a refinery expansion in Western Australia that already cost a preliminary investment of 1.4 billion yuan, saying it wasn’t “economically viable.” The company had said at the time that it plans to keep the first phase of the Kwinana project running and called for support from the government.

Meanwhile, lower income from Tianqi’s investment in Chilean producer Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile also contributed to its steep loss. SQM earlier this month said it expects average prices in 2025 to be slightly lower than last year, while it reported a full year loss of $404 million.

Tianqi’s 2024 net loss was at 8.7 billion yuan on IFRS accounting standards due to additional impairment provisioning, it said.

Russia unveils plans to initiate large-scale lithium production in 2030
Russian Ministry of Natural Resources has granted exploration permits for three significant lithium deposits- Kolmozerskoye and Polmostundrovskoye in the Murmansk region, and Tastygskoye in the Tuva region.

Aninda Chakraborty 18th Mar 2025

Russia has announced plans to commence large-scale lithium production by the end of this decade, amid efforts to reduce its dependence on imports and strengthen its position in the electric battery market. The government intends to produce a minimum of 60,000 metric tonnes of lithium carbonate annually in 2030, Reuters reported quoting Russian Ministry of Natural Resources.

The country’s lithium ambitions align with global trends, as demand for the metal—crucial for electric vehicle (EV) batteries—continues to rise. Notably, lithium oxide and lithium carbonate are key forms of the metal, containing approximately one-third and 20% pure lithium, respectively.

According to the US Geological Survey, Russia has the world’s 14th largest lithium reserves, estimated at around 1 million tonnes in 2024.

Plans to expedite the mining of lithium deposits were backed by Russian President Vladimir Putin last month, as the country seeks to boost its domestic production of lithium batteries and EVs.

“The country has traditionally imported lithium, and it is now crucial to launch facilities swiftly and increase the extraction and processing of this strategically important resource for the economy,” the news agency quoted the ministry as saying.

The ministry has granted exploration permits for three significant lithium deposits-Kolmozerskoye and Polmostundrovskoye in the Murmansk region, and Tastygskoye in the Tuva region near Mongolia.

Kolmozerskoye, home to a quarter of Russia’s lithium reserves, is managed by Polar Lithium—a joint venture between Nornickel and Rosatom. Arctic Lithium oversees Polmostundrovskoye, while Rostech subsidiary and Elbrusmetall-Lithium holds the Tastygskoye licence.

These sites, along with their adjacent production facilities, are expected to become operational by the decade’s end.

In 2023, Russia produced 27 tonnes of lithium, extracted as a byproduct from an emerald mine in the Ural Mountains.

Bas-Rhin. Une commune s’oppose à un projet d’exploitation de lithium

15 mars 2025 Ouestfrance

Une consultation publique a eu lieu à Soufflenheim entre les habitants du village et la société Lithium de France. Dans un climat houleux…

Vent de révolte à Soufflenheim dans le Bas-Rhin. Les habitants de cette petite commune de 4 775 habitants, s’opposent à la société Lithium de France, qui a déposé une demande d’autorisation environnementale pour un site de forage « exploratoire », en vue d’une potentielle future exploitation de lithium. Ce métal, dont la demande mondiale explose, est essentiel pour la production de batteries électriques notamment.

400 personnes présentes à la consultation publique

Pétition en ligne, groupe Facebook, banderoles déployées sur le site du forage potentiel, présence en force lors de la première réunion publique, qui s’est tenue vendredi 14 mars… La mobilisation enfle, comme le rapportent France 3 Grand Est et les Dernières Nouvelles d’Alsace .

Dans un climat houleux, plus de 400 personnes ont pu faire part de leurs préoccupations lors de cette consultation publique. Au premier rang d’entre elles, la proximité immédiate du site et de certaines habitations. Avec le risque de nuisances sonores et visuelles, mais surtout de secousses sismiques liées à l’activité de géothermie. La consultation du public doit se dérouler jusqu’au 11 juin 2025.

US-backed miner TechMet seeks to develop Ukraine lithium site
Dobra project could be one of first built under minerals deal between Washington and Kyiv

March 15 2025

TechMet chief executive Brian Menell said lithium resources at the Dobra project in central Ukraine were “very significant”, and the company had been looking at the site since 2023. The US government is a shareholder.

Washington and Kyiv are working to sign a minerals deal in coming days, and representatives from the US are in Saudi Arabia this week for talks over ending the Russia-Ukraine war.

TechMet’s interest in the Dobra project was not dependent on the minerals deal, said Menell. “However, if the minerals deal were to happen, it would certainly enhance our interest, and would create a framework that would justify doing more, bigger, quicker,” he added.

TechMet’s investment partner in the Dobra lithium project is Ronald Lauder, a billionaire friend of US President Donald Trump. Lauder has also been a big advocate of US efforts to buy Greenland.

Part-owned by the US government, TechMet is a Dublin-based mining investment vehicle valued at $1.2bn, whose other investors include the Qatar Investment Authority, Mercuria and Lansdowne Partners.

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Surge Battery approved for expanded exploration at Nevada lithium project

Staff Writer | March 5, 2025


Nevada North lithium project. (Image: Surge Battery Metals)

Surge Battery Metals (TSXV: NILI) announced on Wednesday that its expanded exploration plans for the Nevada North lithium project (NNLP) have been approved by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). Shares of the lithium junior rose.


The approval, says Surge, represents a “significant permitting milestone” for NNLP as it expands the amount of disturbance allowed for exploration drilling and other activities to 250 acres from the current five acres. The decision allows the company to begin construction of new roads and cross-country trails and drill pads.

Exploration activities being planned drilling to expand the current resource at NNLP, as well as bulk sampling, test pitting, and hydrogeologic and geotechnical studies.

In early 2024, Surge announced an initial resource estimate for NNLP that confirmed it as “one of the highest-grade lithium clay deposits worldwide.” The inferred resource was shown to be 4.7 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) grading 2,839 parts per million (ppm) lithium. This was later expanded to 11.24 million tonnes grading 3,010 ppm lithium in September.

The current NLLP resource was based on three rounds of drilling (28 drill holes) completed between 2022 and 2024 that identified a strongly mineralized zone of lithium-bearing clays occupying a strike length of more than 4,300 metres and a known width of greater than 1,500 metres.

Based on this resource, Surge has been looking to complete a preliminary economic assessment for NNLP. To support the study, further drilling is being planned for this year, pending BLM approval of the company’s exploration plan, which has now been obtained.

“We have developed our spring/summer drill plan for 2025 and are looking forward to the drilling season and updating our mineral resource estimate later in Q4,” chief executive Greg Reimer said in a press release.

Shares of Surge Battery Metals rose 11.4% to C$0.39 apiece, near the midpoint of its 52-week range, by 11 a.m. ET following the BLM approval. The Vancouver-based explorer has a market capitalization of C$63.4 million ($44 million).

SQM cuts spending amid drawn-out lithium price slump

Cecilia Jamasmie | March 5, 2025


Operations in northern Chile. (Image courtesy of SQM LinkedIn.)

Chile’s SQM (NYSE: SQM), the world’s second-largest lithium producer, is scaling back spending this year as a prolonged weakness in prices for the battery metal continues to erode margins.


The miner, which also produces fertilizers and industrial chemicals, plans to invest $1.1 billion across its businesses in 2025, with $550 million directed toward its lithium operations in Chile. An additional $350 million will go to its iodine and plant nutrition business, while the remaining $350 million will fund international lithium ventures.

Last year, SQM allocated around $1.6 billion capital expenditures, including $1.3 billion on expansion projects across its divisions.

The Santiago-based miner delivered on Wednesday another sharp drop in earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024, with profits plunging nearly 41% to $120 million from $206 million a year earlier.

Full-year revenues from lithium and derivatives totalled $2.2 billion, marking a steep 56.7% decline from the $5.2 billion recorded in 2023.

Fourth-quarter revenues for lithium alone fell almost 33% to $532 million from $792 million recorded for the fourth quarter of 2023.

Despite the downturn, chief executive Ricardo Ramos struck an optimistic tone, citing a 25% increase in market demand in 2024. He anticipates that global demand could grow around 17% this year, driven by electric vehicles (EV) sales and increased adoption of battery energy storage systems.

“We believe that prices will remain relatively stable throughout this year, and remain optimistic about a positive trend starting in 2026,” Ramos said.

Underproduction?

SQM also expects a 15% increase in lithium sales compared to 2024, including about 10,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) from the Mt. Holland operation in Australia. Ramos highlighted progress at the Kwinana refinery, which remains on track to begin operations by mid-2025.

On the flip side, the company anticipates lower average realized lithium prices this year, with first-quarter prices slightly below those recorded in the final quarter of 2024.

BMO analyst Joel Jackson noted that SQM’s 2025 lithium guidance suggests the company will underproduce relative to its capacity, signalling potential efforts to exercise supply discipline. However, he does not expect prices to improve this year.

The lithium market has been battered by the prolonged slump, driven by weaker-than-expected demand for EVs. In response, many lithium producers have scaled back operations and slashed spending to protect margins.

The latest to take action was Sibanye-Stillwater (JSE: SSW)(NYSE: SBSW), which opted in February not to proceed with its Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron project in the US state of Nevada.