par energy_isere » 04 mai 2025, 11:14
Il va falloir beaucoup de temps pour que l' accord sur les minéraux porte ses fruits :
US, Ukraine may wait decade or more to see revenue from minerals deal
Reuters | May 2, 2025
The financial payoff from a new minerals deal between Ukraine and the US is likely to take a decade or longer as investors face many hurdles to getting new mines into production in the war-ravaged country.
Developing mines that produce strategically important minerals in countries with established mining sectors such as Canada and Australia can take 10 to 20 years, mining consultants said on Thursday.
But most mineral deposits in Ukraine have scant data to confirm they are economically viable. Investors may also baulk at funnelling money into a country where infrastructure such as power and transport has been devastated by Russia’s three-year-old full-scale invasion and future security is not guaranteed.
“If anyone’s thinking suddenly all these minerals are going to be flying out of Ukraine, they’re dreaming,” said Adam Webb, head of minerals at consultancy Benchmark Minerals Intelligence.
“The reality is it’s going to be difficult for people to justify investing money there when there are options to invest in critical minerals in countries that are not at war.”
While the financial benefits from the deal are uncertain, officials in Ukraine hailed it as a political breakthrough: They believe it will help shore up US support for Kyiv that has faltered under President Donald Trump.
Ukraine needs US support – especially weapons and cash – to withstand Russia’s military invasion.
On the US side, Trump heavily promoted the deal, especially the access it provides to Ukraine’s deposits of rare earth elements which are used in everything from cellphones to cars. So government policy could hasten investment.
The US does not produce significant amounts of rare earths and has ramped up a trade war with China, the world’s top supplier.
The text of the deal signed in Washington showed that revenues for the reconstruction fund would come from royalties, licence fees and production-sharing agreements.
The text mentions no financial terms, saying that the two sides still have to hammer out a limited partnership agreement between the US International Development Finance Corp and Ukraine’s State Organization Agency on Support for Public-Private Partnership.
The text details 55 minerals plus oil, natural gas and other hydrocarbons. According to Ukrainian data, the country has deposits of 22 of the 34 minerals identified by the European Union as critical, including rare earths, lithium and nickel.
“The transition from a discovered resource to an economically viable reserve requires significant time and investment, both of which have been constrained, not only since the onset of the war but even prior to it,” said Willis Thomas at consultancy CRU.
Ukrainian finance ministry data showed that in 2024, the Ukrainian state earned 47.7 billion hryvnias, or around $1 billion, in royalties and other fees related to natural resources exploitation.
But the joint fund created under the deal will only get revenue from new licences, permits and production-sharing agreements concluded after the accord comes into force.
Slow pace of mining licences
Ukraine was slow to issue new natural resources licenses before Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion. From 2012 to 2020, about 20 licences were issued for oil and gas, one for graphite, one for gold, two for manganese and one for copper, according to the Ukrainian geological service. There are 3,482 existing licenses in total.
Since the agreement creates a limited partnership, the two countries may be looking at direct government investment in a mining company, analysts said.
Chile, the world’s biggest copper producer and owner of state mining company Codelco, could be an example they follow, Webb said.
Another hurdle is that some potentially lucrative projects are on land occupied by Russia, and the agreement does not include any security guarantees. Washington has said the presence of US interests would deter aggressors.
Seven of 24 potential mining projects identified by Benchmark are in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine and include lithium, graphite, rare earth elements, nickel and manganese.
An official of a small Ukrainian company that holds the licence for the Polokhivske lithium deposit, one of the largest in Europe, told Reuters in February it would be tough to develop without Western security guarantees.
“The deal ties the US more closely into Ukraine in that now they’ve got a bit more of a vested interest in this war coming to an end so that they can develop those assets,” Webb said.
https://www.mining.com/web/us-ukraine-m ... rals-deal/
et dans le meme genre :
Column: US-Ukraine deal is heavy on symbolism, light on minerals
Reuters | May 2, 2025
US President Donald Trump’s minerals deal with Ukraine is a big symbolic win for both sides.
Ukraine gets a long-term commitment for US investment in “a free, sovereign, and secure Ukraine”. The United States gets a stake in Ukraine’s future resource potential. And Trump gets to prove that he is, to quote White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt, “the great deal maker”.
Just don’t expect a Ukrainian critical minerals rush soon.
Yulia Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, posted on X that she does not expect the jointly-owned Reconstruction Investment Fund to pay out any dividends in the first 10 years.
Don’t mention the rare earths
At least everyone has stopped calling it the rare earths deal. The agreement covers all sub-soil resources, including oil, gas and a wide spectrum of metals.
Ukraine has a couple of rare earth deposits, which is not surprising given the size of the country and that rare earths are not as rare as their name suggests.
Deposits that are viable economically and technically are relatively unusual and how promising Ukraine’s are is unclear.
Even the best-mapped Novopoltavske field was last surveyed in 1982-1991. It is also inconveniently located just north of Chernihiv in Zaporizhzhia province, which is the wrong side of the front line from a Ukrainian point of view.
So are two of the touted lithium projects. Indeed, about 40% of Ukraine’s metal resources are under Russian occupation, according to estimates by Ukrainian think tanks We Build Ukraine and the National Institute of Strategic Studies.
Unlocking the full value of the minerals deal will be impossible without a definitive peace and reconciliation of Ukraine’s and Russia’s competing territorial claims.
Long road from mine to market
Ukraine has other lithium deposits and also hosts reserves of critical minerals such as uranium, titanium and graphite.
But since existing production facilities are not included in the deal and many have been closed since the start of the war anyway, Ukraine will be building a minerals production chain from scratch.
That is a long journey.
The challenge with many of the metals on everyone’s critical raw materials list is not getting them out of the ground, although that can be capital-intensive enough, but in refining them into high-purity products ready for the manufacturing process.
Rare earths’ separation and processing is notoriously tricky and dominated by Chinese operators, which is another reason why no-one’s calling it the rare earths deal any more.
Mined uranium also needs to be enriched before it can be fed into a nuclear power plant and titanium ore needs to be processed into aviation-grade alloy before it can be used to build aircraft.
It’s an inconvenient truth that Russia is one of the world’s largest titanium processors and accounted for 27% of the enriched uranium supplied to US commercial reactors in 2023.
Russia, however, is explicitly excluded from benefiting from the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Price protection
Market price is another problem.
Ukraine’s graphite deposits are both on the right side of the front line and relatively well mapped. The Balakhivske project is at the feasibility study stage, according to the Ukrainian Geological Survey.
There is a ready European market for the material needed for the anode in electric vehicle batteries.
But will mining it in Ukraine be economically viable?
Canadian miner Northern Graphite, the only producer in North America, has announced it is putting its Quebec plant on care and maintenance due to a 50% collapse in the graphite price.
China controls 70% of the global supply chain and can exert huge influence over pricing, in this case flooding the market to undermine potential competitors.
The West’s lithium ambitions are being similarly stymied by Chinese over-supply and rock-bottom market prices.
Ukraine will find that private investment will need government help to shield start-ups from price turbulence.
The United States has already understood the need for direct federal action. The Department of Defense is a strategic investor in a domestic rare earths processing project being led by Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths.
Staking the metallic future
This minerals deal is clearly going to come with a long repayment schedule.
But it is a sign of the times. As the world transitions from a fossil fuel economy to a metallic future, minerals have become the new geopolitical currency.
In this new world order China is the dominant incumbent and the West the challenger.
The United States has just made a strategic move in the great global minerals game. It will not be the last.
Next up is the Democratic Republic of Congo, where another minerals-for-security deal is on the table.
https://www.mining.com/web/column-us-uk ... -minerals/Il va falloir beaucoup de temps pour que l' accord sur les minéraux porte ses fruits :
[quote] [b][size=120]US, Ukraine may wait decade or more to see revenue from minerals deal[/size][/b]
Reuters | May 2, 2025
[b]The financial payoff from a new minerals deal between Ukraine and the US is likely to take a decade or longer as investors face many hurdles to getting new mines into production in the war-ravaged country.[/b]
Developing mines that produce strategically important minerals in countries with established mining sectors such as Canada and Australia can take 10 to 20 years, mining consultants said on Thursday.
But most mineral deposits in Ukraine have scant data to confirm they are economically viable. Investors may also baulk at funnelling money into a country where infrastructure such as power and transport has been devastated by Russia’s three-year-old full-scale invasion and future security is not guaranteed.
“If anyone’s thinking suddenly all these minerals are going to be flying out of Ukraine, they’re dreaming,” said Adam Webb, head of minerals at consultancy Benchmark Minerals Intelligence.
“The reality is it’s going to be difficult for people to justify investing money there when there are options to invest in critical minerals in countries that are not at war.”
While the financial benefits from the deal are uncertain, officials in Ukraine hailed it as a political breakthrough: They believe it will help shore up US support for Kyiv that has faltered under President Donald Trump.
Ukraine needs US support – especially weapons and cash – to withstand Russia’s military invasion.
On the US side, Trump heavily promoted the deal, especially the access it provides to Ukraine’s deposits of rare earth elements which are used in everything from cellphones to cars. So government policy could hasten investment.
The US does not produce significant amounts of rare earths and has ramped up a trade war with China, the world’s top supplier.
The text of the deal signed in Washington showed that revenues for the reconstruction fund would come from royalties, licence fees and production-sharing agreements.
The text mentions no financial terms, saying that the two sides still have to hammer out a limited partnership agreement between the US International Development Finance Corp and Ukraine’s State Organization Agency on Support for Public-Private Partnership.
The text details 55 minerals plus oil, natural gas and other hydrocarbons. According to Ukrainian data, the country has deposits of 22 of the 34 minerals identified by the European Union as critical, including rare earths, lithium and nickel.
“The transition from a discovered resource to an economically viable reserve requires significant time and investment, both of which have been constrained, not only since the onset of the war but even prior to it,” said Willis Thomas at consultancy CRU.
Ukrainian finance ministry data showed that in 2024, the Ukrainian state earned 47.7 billion hryvnias, or around $1 billion, in royalties and other fees related to natural resources exploitation.
But the joint fund created under the deal will only get revenue from new licences, permits and production-sharing agreements concluded after the accord comes into force.
[b]Slow pace of mining licences[/b]
Ukraine was slow to issue new natural resources licenses before Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion. From 2012 to 2020, about 20 licences were issued for oil and gas, one for graphite, one for gold, two for manganese and one for copper, according to the Ukrainian geological service. There are 3,482 existing licenses in total.
Since the agreement creates a limited partnership, the two countries may be looking at direct government investment in a mining company, analysts said.
Chile, the world’s biggest copper producer and owner of state mining company Codelco, could be an example they follow, Webb said.
Another hurdle is that some potentially lucrative projects are on land occupied by Russia, and the agreement does not include any security guarantees. Washington has said the presence of US interests would deter aggressors.
Seven of 24 potential mining projects identified by Benchmark are in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine and include lithium, graphite, rare earth elements, nickel and manganese.
An official of a small Ukrainian company that holds the licence for the Polokhivske lithium deposit, one of the largest in Europe, told Reuters in February it would be tough to develop without Western security guarantees.
“The deal ties the US more closely into Ukraine in that now they’ve got a bit more of a vested interest in this war coming to an end so that they can develop those assets,” Webb said.
[/quote]
https://www.mining.com/web/us-ukraine-may-wait-decade-or-more-to-see-revenue-from-minerals-deal/
et dans le meme genre :
[quote][b]Column: US-Ukraine deal is heavy on symbolism, light on minerals[/b]
Reuters | May 2, 2025
US President Donald Trump’s minerals deal with Ukraine is a big symbolic win for both sides.
Ukraine gets a long-term commitment for US investment in “a free, sovereign, and secure Ukraine”. The United States gets a stake in Ukraine’s future resource potential. And Trump gets to prove that he is, to quote White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt, “the great deal maker”.
Just don’t expect a Ukrainian critical minerals rush soon.
Yulia Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, posted on X that she does not expect the jointly-owned Reconstruction Investment Fund to pay out any dividends in the first 10 years.
Don’t mention the rare earths
At least everyone has stopped calling it the rare earths deal. The agreement covers all sub-soil resources, including oil, gas and a wide spectrum of metals.
Ukraine has a couple of rare earth deposits, which is not surprising given the size of the country and that rare earths are not as rare as their name suggests.
Deposits that are viable economically and technically are relatively unusual and how promising Ukraine’s are is unclear.
Even the best-mapped Novopoltavske field was last surveyed in 1982-1991. It is also inconveniently located just north of Chernihiv in Zaporizhzhia province, which is the wrong side of the front line from a Ukrainian point of view.
So are two of the touted lithium projects. Indeed, about 40% of Ukraine’s metal resources are under Russian occupation, according to estimates by Ukrainian think tanks We Build Ukraine and the National Institute of Strategic Studies.
Unlocking the full value of the minerals deal will be impossible without a definitive peace and reconciliation of Ukraine’s and Russia’s competing territorial claims.
Long road from mine to market
Ukraine has other lithium deposits and also hosts reserves of critical minerals such as uranium, titanium and graphite.
But since existing production facilities are not included in the deal and many have been closed since the start of the war anyway, Ukraine will be building a minerals production chain from scratch.
That is a long journey.
The challenge with many of the metals on everyone’s critical raw materials list is not getting them out of the ground, although that can be capital-intensive enough, but in refining them into high-purity products ready for the manufacturing process.
Rare earths’ separation and processing is notoriously tricky and dominated by Chinese operators, which is another reason why no-one’s calling it the rare earths deal any more.
Mined uranium also needs to be enriched before it can be fed into a nuclear power plant and titanium ore needs to be processed into aviation-grade alloy before it can be used to build aircraft.
It’s an inconvenient truth that Russia is one of the world’s largest titanium processors and accounted for 27% of the enriched uranium supplied to US commercial reactors in 2023.
Russia, however, is explicitly excluded from benefiting from the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Price protection
Market price is another problem.
Ukraine’s graphite deposits are both on the right side of the front line and relatively well mapped. The Balakhivske project is at the feasibility study stage, according to the Ukrainian Geological Survey.
There is a ready European market for the material needed for the anode in electric vehicle batteries.
But will mining it in Ukraine be economically viable?
Canadian miner Northern Graphite, the only producer in North America, has announced it is putting its Quebec plant on care and maintenance due to a 50% collapse in the graphite price.
China controls 70% of the global supply chain and can exert huge influence over pricing, in this case flooding the market to undermine potential competitors.
The West’s lithium ambitions are being similarly stymied by Chinese over-supply and rock-bottom market prices.
Ukraine will find that private investment will need government help to shield start-ups from price turbulence.
The United States has already understood the need for direct federal action. The Department of Defense is a strategic investor in a domestic rare earths processing project being led by Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths.
Staking the metallic future
This minerals deal is clearly going to come with a long repayment schedule.
But it is a sign of the times. As the world transitions from a fossil fuel economy to a metallic future, minerals have become the new geopolitical currency.
In this new world order China is the dominant incumbent and the West the challenger.
The United States has just made a strategic move in the great global minerals game. It will not be the last.
Next up is the Democratic Republic of Congo, where another minerals-for-security deal is on the table.
[/quote]
https://www.mining.com/web/column-us-ukraine-deal-is-heavy-on-symbolism-light-on-minerals/