oleocene.org

Rystad Says Global Recoverable Oil Reserves Hold Steady

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone Staff | Tuesday, July 30, 2024

In a release sent to Rigzone recently, Rystad Energy said its latest research shows that global recoverable oil reserves “held largely steady at around 1,500 billion barrels”.

This figure was “down some 52 billion barrels” from Rystad’s 2023 analysis, the company highlighted in the release, noting that, “of this year over year decrease, 30 billion barrels are due to one year of production, and 22 billion barrels are mostly due to downward adjustments of contingent resources in discoveries”.

“This total recoverable oil resource of 1,500 billion barrels gives an upper limit of how much oil can be produced over the next 100 years or more,” Rystad stated in the release.

“Of course, this upper limit is only realistic and economical if oil demand is not impacted by the energy transition, meaning oil prices would rise far above $100 per barrel,” it added.

“In this theoretical ‘high case’, total oil production would peak around 2035 at 120 million barrels per day, then decline steeply to 85 million barrels per day in 2050,” it continued.

The company stated in the release that, in a more realistic outlook for oil production, total output would peak in 2030 at 108 million barrels per day and decline to 55 million barrels per day in 2050, with oil prices staying around $50 per barrel in real terms.

“Under this scenario, about one-third of the world’s recoverable oil, 500 billion barrels, would become stranded due to unprofitable developments,” Rystad said.

“Such an aggressive energy transition scenario would theoretically limit global warming to 1.9 degrees, but given the current trajectory of oil demand, this path seems unlikely,” it added.

In the release, Rystad reported proven oil reserves at 449 billion barrels, “according to recognized standards”. This provides a lower limit for remaining oil reserves if no new development projects were to be approved and all exploration activities were stopped, the release stated.

Head of Analysis at Rystad Energy Per Magnus Nysveen, said in the release, “the world’s remaining oil reserves are insufficient to support oil demand if there is no transition to electric vehicles”.

“Attempts to limit the supply of oil will have hardly any effect on limiting global warming. Instead, the only feasible way of keeping global temperatures rising less than 2.0 degrees Celsius is to ensure fast electrification of road transportation,” he added.

Rystad highlighted in the release that its estimates of total recoverable oil resources have fallen by 700 billion barrels since 2019 due to reduced exploration activities.

“Exploration has fallen as investors fear new discoveries will remain stranded due to the ongoing electrification of vehicles and the expected slump in both oil demand and crude prices,” Rystad said in the release.


Country Analysis

Rystad pointed out in its release that Saudi Arabia was the country with the most recoverable oil at 247 billion barrels.

The U.S. ranked second with 156 billion barrels, Russia was third with 143 billion barrels, Canada was fourth with 122 billion barrels, and Iraq was fifth with 105 billion barrels, according to the release.

“The largest downward revisions are seen in Saudi Arabia, where development priorities have shifted from offshore capacity expansions to onshore infill drilling,” Rystad stated in the release.

“The only country with any significant increase in 2024 is Argentina, with a gain of four billion barrels thanks to the derisking of shale projects in the Vaca Muerta formation,” it added.

According to the Energy Institute’s (EI) 2024 statistical review of world energy, Saudi Arabia produced 9.60 million barrels of crude oil and condensate per day in 2023. The U.S. produced 12.92 million barrels per day, Russia produced 10.55 million barrels per day, Canada produced 4.93 million barrels per day, and Iraq produced 4.27 million barrels per day, the review showed.

The top crude oil and condensate producer last year was the U.S., followed by Russia, Saudi Arabia, Canada, and Iraq, according to the review, which showed that total world crude oil and condensate output was 82.75 million barrels per day in 2023. That figure was 1.7 percent year on year, the review highlighted.

The EI’s review outlined that, in 2023, Saudi Arabia produced 11.38 million barrels of oil per day, the U.S. produced 19.35 million barrels of oil per day, Russia produced 11.07 million barrels of oil per day, Canada produced 5.65 million barrels of oil per day, and Iraq produced 4.35 million barrels of oil per day.

EI’s review showed that the top oil producer last year was the U.S., followed by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, and Iran. Total global oil production in 2023 was 96.37 million barrels per day, according to the review, which revealed that this was up 2.2 percent year on year.

Recoverable oil reserve/resource figures in Rystad’s release include crude oil and lease condensate. The EI review’s crude oil and condensate figures include crude oil, shale/tight oil, oil sands, lease condensate or gas condensates that require further refining. They exclude liquid fuels from other sources such as biomass and synthetic derivatives of coal and natural gas.

The review’s oil production figures include crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, condensates (lease condensate or gas condensates that require further refining) and NGLs (natural gas liquids – ethane, LPG and naphtha separated from the production of natural gas).

They exclude liquid fuels from other sources such as biofuels and synthetic derivatives of coal and natural gas and liquid fuel adjustment factors such as refinery processing gain. They also excludes oil shales/kerogen extracted in solid form.

mobar a écrit : ↑

17 juil. 2023, 08:06

La demande ne faiblit pas, la production suit,

les réserves mondiales de pétrole -prouvées- étaient de 1383 milliards de barils fin 2010, selon la BP Statistical Review

En 1970, les réserves de pétrole, publiées par les compagnies pétrolières (y compris les compagnies d’état, voire plus bas), représentaient 30 fois la consommation annuelle du moment, laquelle était de l’ordre de 2,4 milliards de tonnes d’or noir par an. Les réserves publiées valaient donc environ 72 milliards de tonnes de pétrole cette année-là (ou encore 530 milliards de barils).

OPEC Says World’s Proven Oil Reserves Rose To 1.56 Trillion Barrels

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jul 12, 2023

Global proven crude oil reserves increased by 17 billion barrels last year, or by 1.1% compared to 2021, to hit 1.564 trillion barrels in 2022, OPEC said in its Annual Statistical Bulletin this week.

OPEC defines proven oil reserves as those quantities of crude oil which, by analysis of geoscience and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and under defined economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations.
OPEC member states hold most of the global proven crude oil reserves. OPEC’s reserves stood at 1.243 trillion barrels at the end of 2022, up by 0.1% compared to the 2021 reserves. In 2021, OPEC’s crude oil reserves had declined marginally from 2020.

OPEC’s share of the global proven crude oil reserves was 79.5% last year, down from 80.3% in 2021, the statistical bulletin showed.

The number of wells completed in OPEC member states rose by 203 year-over-year to 1,791 in 2022, while the total number of completed wells globally jumped by 8,105 to 60,029 last year.
....................

Global Oil Reserves Could Increase Global Temperatures By 0.2°C

By Rystad Energy - Jun 29, 2023,

> The total global recoverable oil reserves have increased by 52 billion barrels since last year, with their use potentially causing around 20% of future warming.
> The oil industry is actively working to reduce upstream emissions, with variation seen across different countries.
> Electric vehicle sales, which are predicted to surpass 50% of global car sales by 2030, are a significant factor in the reduction of oil demand.

Total global recoverable oil reserves now stand at 1,624 billion barrels, according to Rystad Energy research, an increase of 52 billion barrels from our last year’s estimate. In a scenario where global warming is limited to 1.9°C, this oil will contribute about 0.2°C of additional warming by 2100*. Therefore, about 20% of any additional warming will come from burning oil in cars, ships and airplanes and all other uses that lead to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Emissions from oilfield operations are estimated at 5% of all crude-related emissions. The industry is working actively to reduce the intensity of upstream emissions, which can vary from 10 kilograms of carbon dioxide per barrel of oil in Saudi Arabia to more than 100 kgCO2/kg in heavy oil fields in Venezuela.
Every year, Rystad Energy shares an update of its analysis of the global energy landscape and provides an independent, data-based evaluation of the world’s recoverable oil reserves. Recoverable oil corresponds to the industry term ‘remaining technically recoverable crude oil and lease condensate’, i.e. expected volumes, including fields, discoveries and risked future discoveries.

Since our 2022 report, 30 billion barrels of crude oil have been extracted, the same level seen in 2018 and 2019, with 84 billion barrels added in fields, discoveries and exploration prospects. Increased reserves in producing fields and approved projects in 2022 amount to 71 billion barrels, while 13 billion barrels were found in new discoveries during 2022, equaling a net total addition of 54 billion barrels.

Although 1,624 billion barrels of oil are technically recoverable, fewer than 1,300 billion barrels are likely to be economically viable before 2100 at an average Brent price of $50 per barrel. The potential longevity of proven reserves varies widely among OPEC and non-OPEC producers, ranging from fewer than five years for the UK to more than 20 years for Canada. Iran leads OPEC members with almost 13 years of proven reserves.

“The upstream sector is working hard to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from oilfields. However, even with these mitigation measures and governmental efforts, if global warming is to be successfully limited to 1.6°C, only half of the world’s recoverable reserves would be required. It’s not unreasonable to conclude that policies and technological advances can reduce oil consumption and boost the energy transition, bringing us closer to a 1.6°C scenario,” says CEO Jarand Rystad.

*Assuming one barrel of oil emits 400 kg CO2, 85% of oil is burnt and 222 GtCO2 emitted leads to 0.1°C warming, ref IPCC AR6 SPM D.1.1: "best estimate for TCRE is 0.45 degree per 1000 GtCO2". Methane emissions are disregarded.

One key driver of waning oil demand is the surge in electric vehicle (EV) sales. We estimate EV sales will continue to accelerate and pass 50% of global car sales by 2030, leading to peak oil demand of 105 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2026 before tapering at above 100 million bpd until 2032.

Saudi Arabia unsurprisingly leads the way in total recoverable oil with 271 billion barrels. The US follows with 192 billion barrels, Russia with 143 billion barrels and Canada with 127 billion barrels. Iraq and Iran round out the top six with 107 and 88 billion barrels, respectively. China saw a significant jump from last year due to the de-risking of technically recoverable shale resources, with total reserves now estimated at 75 billion barrels. New estimates on Daqing producing fields and recent developments in Xinjiang province and in the Tarim petroleum basin have together boosted the Asian giant’s resources.

Rystad Energy estimates reserves and resources according to the widely recognized standard called PRMS. The PRMS standard distinguishes between three classes of likelihood (P1, P2 and P3) and three classes of development maturity (Producing plus Approved, Discovered and Undiscovered). The table below groups remaining recoverable crude oil resources into five main categories: Proved, Probable, Expected, Contingent and Prospective.

The timestamp of Rystad Energy’s newest resource assessment is 1 January 2023. In other words, our analysis illustrates where the remaining recoverable resources of each country stood at the beginning of this year.

Total Global Recoverable Oil Reserves Are Falling At An Alarming Rate

By Rystad Energy - Jul 03, 2022,

> According to Rystad Energy analysis, global recoverable oil now totals an estimated 1,572 billion barrels.

> Global recoverable oil reserves fell by 152 billion barrels compared to 2021.

> The drop in reserves is driven by the 30 billion barrels of oil produced last year, plus a significant reduction in undiscovered resources.


Following publication of BP’s annual Statistical Review, each year Rystad Energy releases our own analysis of the global energy landscape to provide an independent, data-based comparison and evaluation. Continuing the trend from previous years, Rystad Energy’s 2022 review shows a sizeable drop in recoverable oil resources in what could deal a major blow to global energy security.

According to Rystad Energy analysis, global recoverable oil now totals an estimated 1,572 billion barrels, a drop of almost 9% since last year and 152 billion fewer barrels than 2021’s total. Recoverable oil corresponds to the industry term “remaining technically recoverable crude oil and lease condensate”, i.e. expected volumes including fields, discoveries and risked future discoveries.

The drop in reserves is driven by the 30 billion barrels of oil produced last year, plus a significant reduction in undiscovered resources, to the tune of 120 billion barrels. The US offshore sector has contributed the largest total to that drop, where 20 billion barrels of oil will remain in the ground, largely thanks to leasing bans on federal land.

Of the 1,572 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil, only about 1,200 billion barrels are likely to be economically viable before 2100 at $50 per barrel. This economically extractable oil would contribute about 0.1°C of additional global warming by 2050, and somewhat less by 2100 thanks to natural carbon sinks.

“While the drop in oil availability is positive news for the environment, it may threaten to further destabilize an already precarious energy landscape. Energy security is a matter of redundancy; we need more of everything to meet the growing demand for transport and any action to curb supply will quickly backfire on pump prices worldwide, including large producers such as the US. Politicians and investors can find success by targeting energy consumption, encouraging electrification of the transport sector and drastically improving fuel efficiency,” says Per Magnus Nysveen, Rystad Energy’s head of analysis.



Looking at the longer-term picture, Rystad Energy has updated our estimates for total undiscovered oil from 1 trillion barrels in 2018 to 350 billion barrels in our latest report, due to a rapid collapse in investor appetite for exploration exposure, leading to fewer government leases. This downward revision is good news for carbon compliance but could have negative consequences for global energy security, particularly if electric vehicle adoption falls short of expectations.

The broader climate implications of the total recoverable oil are broadly positive. If all remaining recoverable oil was to be burnt immediately, the global warming impact would be +0.25°C, based on 350 kg of CO2 per barrel and +0.1°C warming per 220 Gt CO2 emitted. However, only 35% of carbon emissions from that oil would still be in the atmosphere in 2100, as it takes 80 years for CO2 to be naturally removed from the air. Also, not all oil is burnt for energy; for example, carbon in plastics is released into the atmosphere only if incinerated.

How long can proven reserves last?

Rystad Energy’s updated report includes revisions for proven reserves. Here, we apply a consistent set of conservative probabilities, as opposed to official reporting by authorities which are considered less consistent. This year we found significant differences between OPEC and non-OPEC members in the longevity of proven reserves. All OPEC countries have proven reserves that are expected to last over 10 years, ranging from Iraq with just over 10 years to more than 14 years in Saudi Arabia. In non-OPEC member countries, Mexico ranks last among individual countries with fewer than five years of proven reserves, whereas Canada’s reserves are projected to last almost 20 years.

Where is all the oil?

Referring to the report on recoverable oil resources, Saudi Arabia holds onto the top spot with 275 billion barrels, followed by the US with 193 billion barrels. Russia with 137 billion barrels, Canada with 118 billion barrels and Iraq with 105 billion barrels round out the top five.

In South America – a fast-growing region for oil discoveries and production – Brazil remains in first place, with 71 billion barrels of recoverable oil, ten times the volume of proven reserves, but down four billion barrels from last year. In Europe, both the UK and Norway’s recoverable volumes have fallen by one billion barrels and now stand at 10 billion and 17 billion barrels respectively.

Bucking the trend of most countries losing oil resources this year, the US added 8 billion barrels to its discovered resources.

The timestamp of Rystad Energy’s newest resource assessment is 1 January 2022. In other words, our analysis illustrates where the remaining recoverable resources of each country stood at the beginning of this year.