La production pétroliére des USA

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Re: La production pétroliére des USA

par mobar » Hier, 07:42

alain2908 a écrit :
Hier, 06:42
Article concordant chez reuters
Si les prix ne bougent pas, la production va baisser.
C’est quoi cette nouvelle connerie?

Ce ne sont pas les prix qui determinent la production, mais les ecarts entre consommation et production, c’est a dire la rarete ou l’excedent d’un produit sur le marche qui determinent le prix de ce produit

Re: La production pétroliére des USA

par alain2908 » Hier, 06:42

Article concordant chez reuters
Si les prix ne bougent pas, la production va baisser.


Sliding US rig count outpaces efficiency gains, threatening onshore oil output
By Georgina Mccartney
August 5, 202511:06 AM GMT+2Updated August 5, 2025



Oil-rich shale region of the Permian Basin in Texas
A drone view of a pump jack and drilling rig south of Midland, Texas, U.S. June 11, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/ File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
Summary
Companies
Falling U.S. rig count threat to oil production
Lower 48 oil production expected to fall next year, analysts say
Permian rig count to fall below models for steady output
Analysts model Permian rig count at 240-260 for steady output
HOUSTON, Aug 5 (Reuters) - The falling number of oil and gas rigs deployed across the United States is reaching a level that would indicate onshore crude output from the world's top producer could fall in early 2026.
U.S. energy companies are producing record amounts of oil, much of it from onshore shale fields. New techniques and technology, like longer lateral wells, automation and more powerful equipment, have driven productivity gains across the industry that have allowed oil companies to pump more with fewer rigs and less capital.
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But the number of rigs working in U.S. shale fields has almost fallen so low - and is projected to keep falling - that those improvements will not be enough to keep onshore U.S. production rising, or even steady in some basins, analysts say.
The anticipated decline comes as U.S. President Donald Trump seeks to raise oil and gas output, and as OPEC+ lifts its production targets in an attempt to take back market share from the U.S. and other rival producers.
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In April 2019, the last time over 1,000 rigs were consistently deployed across the U.S., oil output stood at 12.14 million barrels per day (bpd). Today, there are just 540 rigs in operation, while output has jumped to some 13.5 million bpd.
Those close to the industry say that balance is fast approaching a tipping point, with analysts forecasting the rig count to fall further and U.S. onshore production to subsequently decline next year and into 2027.
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Wood Mackenzie expects lower 48 oil production to fall next year, with declines into 2027 as operators drop rigs in response to persistently low oil prices.
Wood Mackenzie expects lower 48 oil production to fall next year, with declines into 2027 as operators drop rigs in response to persistently low oil prices.
Lower 48 oil output is expected to fall by 200,000 bpd next year, followed by a further decline of 130,000 bpd in 2027, as operators drop rigs in response to persistently low oil prices, Wood Mackenzie analysts said.
At the current rig count of 540, energy analytics firm, Novi Labs forecasts a 400,000 bpd drop in lower 48 production by the end of next year, with losses upwards of 200,000 bpd within the first few months of 2026.
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The U.S. Energy Information Administration in July also said it expects recent declines in rig counts and well completions to continue, pointing to lower crude prices.
ALL EYES ON THE PERMIAN

The recent decline in oil prices has prompted companies to shed rigs at an elevated rate. In the Permian basin - the largest U.S. oil field, spanning from Texas to New Mexico - some 24 rigs were dropped over a ten-week period beginning in May, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes. During that period, prices plunged as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries accelerated plans to increase output.

Companies have been using newer, more efficient oil rigs, with improvements like autonomous drilling capabilities, more powerful horsepower, and technology that enables them to move without being taken down and rebuilt.
"Right now virtually all operating rigs are the most efficient and highly upgraded rigs available. Drillers saw big efficiency gains because they upgraded to a bigger rig but there are no bigger rigs left to upgrade to," said Paul Mosvold, president and COO of Scandrill, whose company has seven rigs in the Haynesville and four in the Permian.
"Now it is incremental and tweaking, whereas before it was a wholesale upgrade. Those things aren’t going to make the level of efficiency gains we’ve seen in the last few years," Mosvold added.
Energy consultancies have similar estimates for the number of rigs needed to keep production steady in the Permian Basin, ranging between 240 and 260.
The Permian rig count last fell by one in the week to August 1, to 259, the lowest since September 2021, according to Baker Hughes (BKR.O), opens new tab.
Graph shows the number of rigs operating in the Permian from late September 2021 to late July 2025, shows rig count in the Permian basin sank to a near four-year low in late July 2025.
Graph shows the number of rigs operating in the Permian from late September 2021 to late July 2025, shows rig count in the Permian basin sank to a near four-year low in late July 2025.
"We have seen a 25% improvement over the last few years in rig efficiency, but the rig count has fallen over 30% over that same period. Put simply, the rig count declines have begun to outpace drilling efficiency gains," said Brandon Myers, head of research at Novi Labs.
"This is a recent development," he added.
Market intelligence firm Energy Aspects expects the Permian rig count to continue falling, slipping below its own modeled 255 threshold for steady production, early next year. Consultancy Wood Mackenzie sees that basin's rig count falling to 245 in early 2026 as prices fall due to higher OPEC+ output.
EFFICIENCY GAINS AND WELL PRODUCTIVITY

The Permian has been at the heart of the U.S. shale revolution, propelling the country to the top spot in the league of global oil producers. Output there is expected to reach 6.58 million bpd this month, more than triple what it produced a decade ago in August 2015, according to the EIA.
In the Permian's Midland basin, oil companies have raised the number of feet drilled per month per rig, or drilling efficiency, by 25% since the first quarter of 2023, according to Novi Labs. In 2024 around 40% of laterals in Midland were over 2.5 miles long, compared with 15% in 2021.
Despite improvements to drilling technologies, oil wells in the Permian basin are becoming less productive as operators have drilled through a lot of the best rock. Those less productive wells cost more to drill and are producing more unwanted byproducts such as gas and water, and less oil.
The Permian's Delaware and Midland sub-basins have seen oil per foot drilled fall 8% so far in 2025 compared with last year's average, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a July note.
"If the rig count drops don't turn around soon, we're going to see U.S. production declines well into 2026, including in the Permian basin," said Energy Aspects analyst Jesse Jones. He anticipates Permian production, which currently stands at 6.55 million bpd, to fall by 150,000 bpd to 6.25 million bpd in 2026, due to fewer rigs and completions as well as a degradation in well productivity.
Declines in oil production as a result of a falling rig count will take six to nine months to show, due to the time it takes to drill and complete wells, analysts said.
Wood Mackenzie sees Permian output growth flattening in 2026, at 6.55 million barrels per day.
Wood Mackenzie sees Permian output growth flattening in 2026, at 6.55 million barrels per day.
Novi Labs expects Permian production will fall slightly by the end of the year, before dipping into the sub-6.5 million bpd range in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Wood Mackenzie sees Permian output growth flattening in 2026 at 6.55 million bpd. The EIA projects output to average 6.53 million bpd in 2025, before edging down to 6.5 million bpd in 2026.
"In 2020, when the rig count fell, operators drilled the best rock they were ever going to have. That high-quality inventory doesn't exist in that quantity anymore, and operators won't be able to do that again to the same degree," said Novi Labs' Myers.
Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, additional reporting by Arathy Somasekhar; Editing by Liz Hampton
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 025-08-05/

Re: La production pétroliére des USA

par tita » 01 août 2025, 13:18

alain2908 a écrit :
01 août 2025, 11:03
Tel que je l’ai compris, l’EIA s’attend a un plateau jusqu’en 2027.
Ca se compliquera ensuite.
Oui, d'après le STEO, la production US atteindrait un maximum de 13.5 Mb/j en avril 2026, avant de diminuer par la suite.

Re: La production pétroliére des USA

par alain2908 » 01 août 2025, 11:03

Tel que je l’ai compris, l’EIA s’attend a un plateau jusqu’en 2027.
Ca se compliquera ensuite.

Re: La production pétroliére des USA

par tita » 31 juil. 2025, 23:25

Derniers chiffres mensuels de l'EIA pour la production de mai dernier.

La production est resté stable, passant de 13'464 kb/j à 13'488 kb/j, soit une augmentation de 24 kb/j. La production offshore a augmenté de 49 kb/j à 1849 kb/j ce qui fait que la production onshore a diminué de 25 kb/j. Sur les 5 derniers mois, la production onshore a augmenté de 54 kb/j. Les estimations hebdomadaires étaient à 13'391 kb/j, une sous-estimation de 97 kb/J.

Sur les 12 derniers mois (mai. 2024-mai. 2025), la production US a augmenté de 287 kb/j.

Toujours sur un plateau...

Re: La production pétroliére des USA

par mobar » 01 juil. 2025, 12:09

tita a écrit :
30 juin 2025, 20:45
Pas grand chose à en dire, si ce n'est qu'on est toujours sur un plateau.
On restera sur le plateau tant que des substituts crédibles et économiquement plus performants que les pétroles actuels n'auront pas été significativement implantés dans l'économie mondiale

Quand les productions commenceront a baisser continument pendant des années, alors seulement on entrera dans l'ére post pétrole

Plus que quelques décennies voire quelques siècles à attendre! :lol: :lol:

Re: La production pétroliére des USA

par kercoz » 30 juin 2025, 21:16

C'est pas trop logique , si l'Iran avait bloqué Ormud, ...Trump se serait fait les Cou...en or noir.

Re: La production pétroliére des USA

par tita » 30 juin 2025, 20:45

Derniers chiffres mensuels de l'EIA pour la production de avril dernier.

La production est resté stable, passant de 13'450 kb/j à 13'468 kb/j, soit une augmentation de 18 kb/j. La production offshore a augmenté de 9 kb/j à 1'799 kb/j ce qui fait que la production onshore a augmenté de 9 kb/j. Sur les 5 derniers mois, la production onshore a diminué de 29 kb/j. Les estimations hebdomadaires étaient à 13'461 kb/j, une différence de 11 kb/J.

Sur les 12 derniers mois (avr. 2024-avr. 2025), la production US a augmenté de 219 kb/j.

Pas grand chose à en dire, si ce n'est qu'on est toujours sur un plateau.

Re: La production pétroliére des USA

par energy_isere » 16 juin 2025, 08:42

Production pétrolière : Donald Trump rate son pari

En raison d'un prix du baril bas, la rentabilité des producteurs américains de pétrole s'érode, menant certains acteurs à la faillite. Selon le département américain de l’Énergie, en 2026, la production devrait ainsi baisser. Une première depuis le Covid-19.
Juliette Raynal

Publié le 12/06/25 latribune.fr

Cela n'était pas arrivé depuis 2021, lorsque la pandémie de Covid-19 avait sonné un coup d'arrêt net pour l'économie mondiale. En 2026, la production de pétrole aux États-Unis devrait diminuer pour la première fois depuis cinq ans et atteindre 13,3 millions de barils par jour d'ici à la fin de l'année prochaine, contre 13,5 millions de barils par jour actuellement. Ce sont en tout cas les prévisions publiées mardi par le département américain de l'Énergie.

De quoi ébranler le programme de domination énergétique brandi par Donald Trump lors de sa campagne et le menant, une nouvelle fois, à la Maison-Blanche. « Nous allons forer à tout va », avait déclaré le président républicain lors de son discours d'investiture, une formule devenue l'un de ses slogans de campagne (« Drill baby, drill. »). « Nous allons redevenir une nation riche et c'est l'or [noir] liquide sous nos pieds qui nous y aidera », avait-il ajouté. Le président américain veut accroître la production de pétrole et de gaz pour « remplir les réserves stratégiques » et « exporter l'énergie américaine dans le monde entier ». En parallèle, Trump souhaite aussi diminuer le coût de l'énergie pour les consommateurs américains. « Mais on ne peut pas avoir les deux : une production très abondante et des prix du pétrole bas », tranche Édouard Lotz, analyste énergie chez Omnegy.
... abonnés

/quote]
https://www.latribune.fr/climat/energie ... 27207.html

Re: La production pétroliére des USA

par energy_isere » 10 juin 2025, 08:23

US Oil Drillers See Sharp Decline in Activity

By Julianne Geiger - Jun 06, 2025,

The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States fell yet again this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday, following a 3-rig decrease last week, and a 10-rig decrease the week before that.

The total rig count in the US fell by 4 to 559 rigs, according to Baker Hughes, down 35 from this same time last year.

The number of oil rigs fell by 9 to 442 after falling by 4 during the previous week—and down by 50 compared to this time last year. The number of gas rigs rose by 5 this week, to 114 for a gain of 16 active gas rigs from this time last year. The miscellaneous rig count stayed the same at 3.

The latest EIA data showed that weekly U.S. crude oil production rose again this week, from 13.401 million bpd to 13.408 million bpd. The figure is 223,000 bpd down from the all-time high reached during the week of December 6, 2024.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... ivity.html

Re: La production pétroliére des USA

par tita » 30 mai 2025, 19:05

Derniers chiffres mensuels de l'EIA pour la production de mars dernier.

La production a nettement augmenté, passant de 13'240 kb/j à 13'488 kb/j, soit une augmentation de 248 kb/j. La production offshore a augmenté de 29 kb/j à 1'793 kb/j ce qui fait que la production onshore a augmenté de 219 kb/j. Sur les 5 derniers mois, la production onshore a augmenté de 8 kb/j. Les estimations hebdomadaires étaient à 13'575 kb/j, une sur-estimation de 87.5 kb/j

Sur les 12 derniers mois (mars. 2024-mars. 2025), la production US a augmenté de 317 kb/j.

Un nouveau record, mais pas de beaucoup. 38kb/j plus haut qu'octobre dernier. Pas mal de révisions d'ailleurs sur le mois précédent aussi, surtout au niveau onshore. Rien de nouveau donc.

Re: La production pétroliére des USA

par Invité » 18 mai 2025, 16:44

Enfin ! Puis un vrai pic mondial net et précis devrait rapidement suivre ensuite .

Re: La production pétroliére des USA

par energy_isere » 18 mai 2025, 12:01

The Return of Peak Oil

By Robert Rapier - May 15, 2025,

- U.S. oil production may have peaked, signaling the end of the shale boom.

- Diamondback Energy and other major players report reduced drilling and fracking activity in the Permian Basin.

- Rising costs, shareholder demands, and maturing oil fields are shifting the U.S. energy narrative from growth to stability.

......................
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... k-Oil.html

il s'agit dans cet article du peak oil des USA, pas du monde.

Re: La production pétroliére des USA

par tita » 13 mai 2025, 14:38

begin refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserv
Ils ont commencé il y a déjà un bon moment de le remplir à nouveau.

Re: La production pétroliére des USA

par energy_isere » 13 mai 2025, 01:09

Republicans Push to Refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve With $1.3 Billion

By Charles Kennedy - May 12, 2025,

U.S. House Republicans have introduced the Budget Reconciliation Bill, which will include funding to begin refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)—a key promise of President Donald Trump.

The bill proposes $1.321 billion to acquire, by purchase, petroleum products for storage in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and another $218 million for maintenance of, including repairs to, storage facilities and related facilities.
.......................
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... llion.html

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