oleocene.org

phyvette a écrit :Das Koloßal rapport de la Bundeswehr...
Le rapport complet en pdf, et en Allemand.
Peak-oil und politischen Krisen große malheurs.

Gaining an illustrative picture of a subject is very much a matter of habit. When considering the consequences of peak oil, no everyday experiences and only few historical parallels are at hand. It is therefore difficult to imagine how significant the effects of being gradually deprived of one of our civilisation’s most important energy sources will be. Psychological barriers cause indisputable facts to be blanked out and lead to almost instinctively refusing to look into this difficult subject in detail.

Peak oil, however, is unavoidable (p. 91).

US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015
• Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a day, report says
•Cost of crude oil is predicted to top $100 a barrel

German Military Braces for Scarcity After ‘Peak Oil’
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energy_isere a écrit :

4.9 Larger “energy regions” change international alliances
The expectation of stronger connections between suppliers and consumers across continents creates different settings for current international alliances and security risks. DESERTEC (a large power production system in Northern Africa based on CSP) would require different settings even for military strategies.

Remundo a écrit :A mettre en lien avec le projet Desertec

qui en dépit des moqueries ignardes et autres quolibets lobbyistes se structure lentement mais sûrement, avec la participation des plus grands ténors allemands de l'énergie et des finances...

Je crois que l'Allemagne a compris, la France toujours pas, mais cela ne m'étonne en rien.

4.9 Larger “energy regions” change international alliances

The expectation of stronger connections between suppliers and consumers across continents creates different settings for current international alliances and security risks. DESERTEC (a large power production system in Northern Africa based on CSP) would require different settings even for military strategies.

1. Introduction
The focus of the document is on the topic of finite resources, using Peak Oil as an example. The report is part of a series of publications focused on the long term (30 years) with the intent to enable the Ministry of Defense to take action early.

In the past, resources have always triggered conflicts, mostly of regional nature. For the future, the authors expect this to become a global problem, as scarcity (mainly of crude oil) will affect everybody.

The authors confirm multiple views on Peak Oil timing and concede that there will be Peak Oil eventually. The study isn’t about positioning the problem on a timeline, but instead about the consequences of a peak. They expect major consequences with a delay of 15-30 years after the peak has hit.

The report refers to the uncertainty of reserve statements mainly in OPEC countries based on the quota allocation method within OPEC but also refers to the possibility of better extraction technologies.

They suggest that it has become urgent to understand those consequences of an eventual peak now in order to have enough time to adapt.

2. The Importance of Oil
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3. Possible Scenarios After Global Peak Oil
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4. Challenges for Germany
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5. Summary
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"The relative importance of the oil producing nations in the international system is growing. These nations are using the advantages resulting from this to expand the scope of their domestic and foreign policies and establish themselves as a new or resurgent regional, or in some cases even global leading power."

The report says there is "some probability that peak oil will occur around the year 2010 and that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later."