Site dédié à la fin de l'âge du pétrole
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par Théotrace2 » 30 janv. 2012, 17:42
par Théotrace2 » 24 janv. 2012, 18:42
par energy_isere » 12 janv. 2012, 19:08
Pic pétrolier : une chance pour l’humanité, par Samuel Alexander 12 janvier 2012 Avec une production stagnante et une consommation des émergents qui ne cesse de croître, le pic pétrolier, qui se traduit par la disparition du pétrole bon marché, obligera l’ensemble des économies à produire moins de « choses », gourmandes en énergies, rendant insoutenable le consumérisme actuel. « Mais il est important de comprendre que nous devrons renoncer à ce mode de vie avant qu’il ne disparaisse, parce que si nous attendons que le consumérisme soit abandonné sous la contrainte des circonstances, la transition vers l’après ne sera pas une bénédiction mais une malédiction, » avertit l’universitaire australien Samuel Alexander. Par Samuel Alexander, Sydney Morning Herald, 11 janvier 2012 .............
par kercoz » 06 janv. 2012, 17:55
par GG » 02 févr. 2011, 21:36
par energy_isere » 27 nov. 2010, 12:34
There Will Be Fuel
....Yet in the face of even more facts about the reality of declining oil production and availability, more nonsense—written by Clifford Krauss and published in the New York Times, no less!—denying the reality of our predicament has surfaced. (Stuart Staniford also had a very nice and well-reasoned article challenging the statements found in that NYT piece. I’m taking the opportunity to expand on his thoughts.) * As I’ll demonstrate below, this at-best-misleading NYT article is yet another in a seemingly limitless supply of carefully-worded challenges to the facts and realities of our political, energy, and climate environments—challenges which upon even casual examination completely fall apart. Facts remain stubbornly annoying….
.....Yet in the face of even more facts about the reality of declining oil production and availability, more nonsense—written by Clifford Krauss and published in the New York Times, no less!—denying the reality of our predicament has surfaced. (Stuart Staniford also had a very nice and well-reasoned article challenging the statements found in that NYT piece. I’m taking the opportunity to expand on his thoughts.) * As I’ll demonstrate below, this at-best-misleading NYT article is yet another in a seemingly limitless supply of carefully-worded challenges to the facts and realities of our political, energy, and climate environments—challenges which upon even casual examination completely fall apart. Facts remain stubbornly annoying…. .......
par Alter Egaux » 23 sept. 2010, 11:13
par energy_isere » 23 sept. 2010, 11:05
Le pic pétrolier aura lieu entre 2012 et 2015, estime le VP de Bank of America (Video Bloomberg) mardi 21 septembre Petrie Sees Oil Production Peaking Between 2012 and 2015 Thomas Petrie, vice chairman of Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, talks about the U.S. government’s moratorium on deep-water oil drilling and the outlook for oil production.
par valid » 20 sept. 2010, 23:15
Aerobar a écrit :un certain Benoit Thévard se définissant "Ingénieur Conseil en énergie ainsi qu’en résilience et stratégie post-carbone des territoires "... et sorti en 2009 de l'Ecole des Mines d'Albi...
un certain Benoit Thévard se définissant "Ingénieur Conseil en énergie ainsi qu’en résilience et stratégie post-carbone des territoires "
par energy_isere » 20 sept. 2010, 21:35
Bracing For Peak Oil Production By Decade's End Wallace Forbes, 09.13.10 Global oil production will max out in the next 5 to 10 years. Weeden & Co.'s Charles Maxwell lays out the investment impact. Charles Maxwell is senior energy analyst at Weeden & Co. Maxwell discusses where oil's production peak is and how that affects investments. .................. Maxwell: A bind is clearly coming. We think that the peak in production will actually occur in the period 2015 to 2020. And if I had to pick a particular year, I might use 2017 or 2018. That would suggest that around 2015, we will hit a near-plateau of production around the world, and we will hold it for maybe four or five years. On the other side of that plateau, production will begin slowly moving down. By 2020, we should be headed in a downward direction for oil output in the world each year instead of an upward direction, as we are today. ........................
par Aerobar » 13 sept. 2010, 22:36
par energy_isere » 13 sept. 2010, 21:52
Est-il possible de remplacer le pétrole dans les délais ?
par energy_isere » 28 août 2010, 17:32
Peak oil alarm revealed by secret official talks 22 August 2010 Behind government dismissals of 'alarmist' fears there is growing concern over critical future energy supplies. Speculation that government ministers are far more concerned about a future supply crunch than they have admitted has been fuelled by the revelation that they are canvassing views from industry and the scientific community about "peak oil". The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) is also refusing to hand over policy documents about "peak oil" – the point at which oil production reaches its maximum and then declines – under the Freedom of Information (FoI) Act, despite releasing others in which it admits "secrecy around the topic is probably not good". Experts say they have received a letter from David Mackay, chief scientific adviser to the DECC, asking for information and advice on peak oil amid a growing campaign from industrialists such as Sir Richard Branson for the government to put contingency plans in place to deal with any future crisis. A spokeswoman for the department insisted the request from Mackay was "routine" and said there was no change of policy other than to keep the issue under review. The peak oil argument was effectively dismissed as alarmist by former energy minister Malcolm Wicks in a report to government last summer, while oil companies such as BP, which have major influence in Whitehall, take a similar line. But documents obtained under the FoI Act seen by the Observer show that a "peak oil workshop" brought together staff from the DECC, the Bank of England and Ministry of Defence among others to discuss the issue. A ministry note of that summit warned that "[Government] public lines on peak oil are 'not quite right'. They need to take account of climate change and put more emphasis on reducing demand and also the fact that peak oil may increase volatility in the market." Those comments were written 12 months ago, but a letter in response to the FoI request written by DECC officials and dated 31 July 2010 says it can only release some information on what is currently under policy discussion because they are "ongoing" and "high profile" in nature. The letter adds: "We recognise the public interest arguments in favour of disclosing this information. In particular we recognise that greater transparency makes government more open and accountable and could help provide an insight into peak oil. "However any public interest in the disclosure of such information must be balanced with the need to ensure that ministers and advisers can discuss policy in a manner which allows for frank exchanges of views and opinions about important and sensitive issues." Yet the note of the workshop distributed last year talks about secrecy around the topic being "probably not good", although it also suggests officials stick to the line that the "International Energy Agency is an authoritative source in this field" and stresses how the IEA believes there is sufficient reserves to meet demand till 2030 as long as investment in new reserves is maintained. But the Paris-based organisation has come under increasing scrutiny from a growing group of critics who believe the IEA's optimism is misplaced. Last year the Guardian revealed that the IEA was also riven with dissent over the issue with senior staff members privately telling newspaper they thought the official numbers on future global oil supply were over-optimistic. The IEA predicted in the 2009 World Energy Outlook published last November that oil demand would grow from 85m barrels a day today to 88m in 2015 and reach 105m in 2030. The organisation presumes the challenge of meeting that demand can equally be met by a mixture of higher Opec production and considerably more output from unconventional sources. But an internal IEA source said: "Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible, but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources." The IEA has denied the claims of internal dissent and sticks by its figures. But Kjell Aleklett, a professor of physics at Uppsala University in Sweden and author of a report The Peak of the Oil Age, claims crude production is more likely to be 75m barrels a day by 2030 than the "unrealistic" 105m projected by the IEA.
par mobar » 15 janv. 2010, 08:25
energy_isere a écrit :Numéro de Janvier 2010 : Enjeux Les Echos prospective 2010-2020 un petit scan pour la partie qui interesse Oleocene :
par energy_isere » 14 janv. 2010, 17:55
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