la russie aurait-elle dépassé son 2e pic de production ?

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Re: la russie aurait-elle dépassé son 2e pic de production ?

par energy_isere » 17 avr. 2023, 18:34

Les nouvelles routes africaines du diesel russe
À défaut d'être acheté par les Européens, le diesel russe est prisé par les pays africains. Le Nigeria en tête.


RFI le : 17/04/2023 Par : Marie-Pierre Olphand

L'embargo européen sur les produits pétroliers russes en vigueur depuis le 5 février a eu des conséquences directes sur l'approvisionnement de l'Afrique. Car les ports de Rotterdam, Amsterdam ou encore Ventspils en Lettonie étaient des hubs par lesquels transitaient le diesel russe. C'est là que les produits étaient mélangés pour répondre aux qualités demandées par les différents acheteurs. Une escale technique en quelque sorte, avant la destination finale.

Les ports européens qui avaient en stock des produits russes avant l'embargo ont eu le droit de les écouler, mais en théorie ce n'est plus possible aujourd'hui. Ce vide a été très vite comblé : des routes directes se sont mises en place entre la Russie et le continent.

Le Nigeria, premier client africain pour le diesel russe

La Tunisie, la Libye, la République démocratique du Congo, le Ghana et le Nigeria sont aujourd’hui approvisionnés par la Russie sans intermédiaire européen. Le Nigeria est même devenu le premier acheteur de diesel russe, selon les données de suivi maritime du cabinet franco-belge Kpler cité par l'agence Reuters : ses importations ont été multipliées par plus de dix au premier trimestre par rapport à la même période il y a un an, soit près de 488 000 tonnes contre 38 000 tonnes. Au premier trimestre, l'Afrique a importé un volume record de diesel russe, soit 812 000 tonnes.


Ces ventes à l'Afrique ont été facilitées par des réseaux déjà en place, via des intermédiaires basés à Dubaï ou à Singapour qui continuent d'acheter du diesel russe et ciblent particulièrement le marché africain, explique un négociant en pétrole.

La Russie exporte plus de produits raffinés qu'il y a un an

Ces expéditions vers l'Afrique s'expliquent aussi par une augmentation des volumes de brut raffinés en Russie. Le pays a exporté 600 000 tonnes de diesel en plus au premier trimestre par rapport à l'année dernière. Vendre des produits raffinés est plus rentable pour la Russie depuis l'instauration d'un prix plafond par le G7 et l'UE, rappelle un expert : le plafond est en effet de 100 dollars pour le diesel, alors qu'il est de 60 dollars pour le brut.

Acheter en direct du diesel russe ne permet pas pour autant à l'Afrique de faire de bonnes affaires. Car même si les produits pétroliers russes sont vendus avec un rabais et donc à des prix moins élevés que ceux proposés par les majors du pétrole, le marché est à la hausse et la facture n'est pas si réduite que ça à l'arrivée pour les pays importateurs du continent. « Plutôt que d'acheter à un prix préférentiel, qui reste haut, ces pays gagneraient plus à ce que le conflit s'arrête, pour voir le marché se détendre », commente un de nos interlocuteurs.
https://www.rfi.fr/fr/podcasts/chroniqu ... esel-russe

Re: la russie aurait-elle dépassé son 2e pic de production ?

par energy_isere » 14 avr. 2023, 21:00

Malgré les sanctions, les exportations de pétrole russe ont atteint en mars leur plus haut niveau depuis 3 ans

AFP le 14 avr. 2023

Malgré la pluie de sanctions de l'Union européenne et du G7, les exportations de pétrole russe résistent et ont même atteint en mars leur plus haut niveau depuis trois ans, mais la manne qu'elles procurent à Moscou est moindre que l'an dernier, selon le dernier rapport de l'Agence internationale de l'énergie (AIE) publié vendredi.

Les expéditions totales de pétrole ont augmenté en mars de 600 000 barils par jour à 8,1 millions de barils par jour, en comptant les produits pétroliers raffinés, qui ont grimpé de 450 000 barils par jour à 3,1 millions de barils journaliers.

"Les exportations russes de pétrole en mars ont atteint leur plus haut niveau depuis avril 2020 grâce à l'augmentation des flux de produits qui sont revenus à des niveaux observés pour la dernière fois avant l'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie", relève l'AIE, basée à Paris, dans sa dernière livraison mensuelle.

En conséquence, "les revenus estimés ont rebondi en mars de 1 milliard de dollars à 12,7 milliards de dollars", mais ils demeurent 43% moins élevés qu'il y a un an, relève l'AIE.

Malgré la pluie de sanctions internationales visant son pétrole, la Russie se démène pour rediriger ses exportations d'hydrocarbures gaz vers d'autres pays, comme en Inde. "La Russie a été le premier fournisseur de brut de l'Inde en février pour le huitième mois consécutif avec une part de près de 38%", indiquait notamment jeudi l'Opep, le cartel des exportateurs de pétrole, citant des données de Kpler, cabinet d'analyse spécialisé dans les matières premières.

Après les sanctions en place depuis le 5 décembre sur le brut russe, un second embargo de l'UE, sur les achats de produits pétroliers russes par voie maritime, couplé à un prix plafond de ces produits appliqué par les pays du G7 est en vigueur depuis le 5 février.

En représailles à ces sanctions promulguées en réaction à l'offensive de Moscou contre l'Ukraine lancée en février 2022, la Russie avait prévenu le 10 février qu'elle réduirait sa production de 500 000 barils par jour, sans toutefois avoir atteint cet objectif en mars.

"La production de brut russe a chuté d'environ 290 000 barils par jour en mars pour atteindre 9,58 millions de barils journaliers, manquant son objectif de réduction (...) alors que le pays semble acheminer ses barils vers de nouveaux débouchés malgré les sanctions de l'UE", souligne l'AIE.
https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org ... ans-230414

Re: la russie aurait-elle dépassé son 2e pic de production ?

par energy_isere » 21 mars 2023, 20:13

Pétrole : la Russie prolonge la réduction de sa production de brut de 500 000 barils par jour jusqu'à fin juin

AFP le 21 mars 2023

La Russie a annoncé mardi prolonger la réduction de sa production de brut de 500 000 barils par jour jusqu'à fin juin, plus d'un mois après avoir ordonné cette baisse en représailles aux différentes sanctions internationales visant son pétrole.

"Conformément à la situation actuelle du marché, la décision de réduire volontairement la production d'un montant de 500.000 barils par jour sera valable jusqu'en juin 2023 inclus", a déclaré à des journalistes le vice-Premier ministre en charge de l'Energie, Alexandre Novak, cité par les agences de presse russes.

Il a précisé que la Russie était "sur le point d'atteindre le niveau cible de réduction" annoncé le 10 février dernier. "Il sera atteint dans les prochains jours", a-t-il poursuivi.

Cette annonce intervient en pleine visite du président chinois Xi Jinping à Moscou.

Malgré la pluie de sanctions internationales visant le pétrole russe -- embargo et plafonnement du prix de vente sur le brut et les produits raffinés --, la Chine a abondamment acheté l'or noir de Moscou depuis le début de l'offensive russe en Ukraine.

Pékin a notamment profité de rabais à l'achat pour son économie particulièrement énergivore.

La réduction annoncée de 500.000 barils par jour représente une baisse d'environ 5% des extractions russes quotidiennes actuelles, qui totalisent plus de 9,5 millions de barils.

Au moment de la décision initiale de Moscou en février, des observateurs du marché de l'or noir y avaient vu une volonté de doper les prix du marché pour endiguer la chute de ses revenus, estimée à 42% pour le mois de janvier selon l'Agence internationale de l'énergie (AIE).
https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org ... uin-230321

Re: la russie aurait-elle dépassé son 2e pic de production ?

par mobar » 14 oct. 2022, 09:06

[-X Ce n’est pas le pic de production qui a ete depasse mais le pic d’exportations!

Quand les producteurs de petrole, de charbon et de gaz auront compris que garder leurs ressources pour leur besoins internes et leur developpement serra plus efficace pour leur leadership et leur puissance que de le vendre a des consommmateurs etrangers’ nos carottes seront cuites!

Re: la russie aurait-elle dépassé son 2e pic de production ?

par energy_isere » 14 oct. 2022, 08:48

Russia Claims It Can Maintain Oil Production At 9.9 Million Bpd

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Oct 12, 2022,

Russia expects to keep its production at 9.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday, citing production volumes that are more than 1 million bpd below Russia’s current target under the OPEC+ deal.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia would keep oil production and exports at that level until 2025, vowing not to give up what he considered to be his world-leading position in the global energy markets despite sanctions.

“We are at the same level, 9.9 mln bpd. We currently have stable production,” Novak, who represents Russia at the OPEC+ meetings, said at an energy forum in Moscow today, as carried by Russian news agency TASS.

Russia is set to keep the 9.9-million-bpd level throughout October, Novak added.

After the OPEC+ meeting last week, Novak said that Russian oil and condensate production would drop next year—from expected production of 530 million tons (10.6 million bpd) in 2022 and 490 million tons in 2023.

Last week, OPEC+ announced the biggest cut to its collective target since 2020. Despite the headline number of 2 million bpd, the actual cut from current OPEC+ oil production would be half that figure, at around 1 million bpd-1.1 million bpd. That’s because many producers, including Russia in recent months, haven’t been able to produce to their quotas for months.

Russia is estimated to have been around 1 million bpd below its 11-million-bpd quota for September, so it will not have to reduce any production and will only benefit from higher oil prices.

As of November, Russia’s production target will be 10.478 million bpd, the same as Saudi Arabia’s. While the Kingdom is set to reduce 526,000 bpd of its output, Russia will continue to be pumping well below its target level.

Additionally, Russian production could drop toward the end of this year and early next year because Moscow will have to find new homes for an additional 1 million bpd of products and 1.4 million bpd of crude as of December when the EU embargo kicks in, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Oil Market Report in September.

This could result in deeper declines in Russian oil exports and production, the IEA said. The Paris-based agency expects oil production in Russia to fall to 9.5 million bpd by February 2023, which would be a plunge of 1.9 million bpd compared to February 2022.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... n-Bpd.html

Re: la russie aurait-elle dépassé son 2e pic de production ?

par energy_isere » 01 sept. 2022, 08:50

Exportations records de pétrole Russe. Des pétroliers d'armateurs Grecs participent au transport du brut Russe.
Russia Exported Record Amounts Of Crude In August

By Alex Kimani - Aug 31, 2022 oilprice.com

> Russia’s war in Ukraine has sparked a wave of sanctions on its energy exports.

> Despite sanctions and pledges to stop buying Russian crude, the country’s oil output has continued to exceed expectations.

> Russia’s oil output broke records in August, with Greek tankers playing a big role in helping Moscow seep into international markets.

Six months into Russia’s war on Ukraine, Russia's oil output has continued to exceed expectations. According to data from the Institute of International Finance (IIF), Russian oil shipments hit their highest ever August level this month, with Greek-owned tankers playing the biggest role in helping Russia's oil get to international markets. IIF chief economist Robin Brooks has tweeted that the capacity of oil tankers departing Russian ports--a proxy for exports--came in at just under 160 million barrels in August, more than in any August in any prior year.

"Russia exports most of its crude via foreign-owned oil tankers. Volume of those shipments in August 2022 exceeds any prior year, thanks to Greek-owned oil tankers who shifted capacity to transport Russian oil," Brooks has told Business Insider.

A couple of months ago, Refinitiv Eikon via Reuters reported that Greece has emerged as a new hub for Russian oil via ship-to-ship (STS) loadings. Trading Russian crude and oil products remain legal for now because EU members cannot seem to agree on the methodology of a complete ban.

For all the tough talk about abandoning Russian energy commodities, Russia is still managing to sell a good amount of its oil and gas, thanks to the fact that some of the world's biggest commodity traders have little compunction against financing Putin's war machine.

According to ship tracking and port data, Switzerland's Vitol, Glencore, and Gunvor as well as Singapore's Trafigura, have all continued to lift large volumes of Russian crude and products, including diesel.

Vitol has pledged to stop buying Russian crude by the end of this year, but that's still a long way from today. Trafigura said it would stop buying crude from Russia's state-run Rosneft by May 15th, but is free to buy cargoes of Russian crude from other suppliers. Glencore has said it wouldn't enter any "new" trading business with Russia. Meanwhile, India and China are making up for much of the losses for Russia.

A lot of the blame falls on Switzerland. The lion's share of Russian raw materials is traded via Switzerland and its nearly 1,000 commodity firms.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/R ... ugust.html

Re: la russie aurait-elle dépassé son 2e pic de production ?

par energy_isere » 13 août 2022, 12:33

Western sanctions have a “limited impact” on Russian oil production: IEA
Russian oil production fell 3% since February, only 310,000 barrels daily below pre-war levels.

By Smruthi Nadig August 12, 2022

Energy sanctions imposed on Russian oil have a “limited impact” on production, the International Energy Agency (IEA) states in a report.

Despite the Western countries pledging to isolate President Putin’s regime, oil production has fallen by only 3% since Ukraine’s invasion. The IEA found that Russia produced 310,000 barrels per day in July, below pre-invasion levels, while total export levels were down by 580,000 barrels daily.

The agency’s report said that buyers from Asia stepped in to acquire cheap crude from Russia. Demand from India, China, and Turkey has increased along with domestic market demand, diminishing upstream losses.

Russian exports to Europe, the US, Japan, and Korea fell by almost 2.2m barrels a day since the invasion. In June, China moved ahead of the EU as the biggest importer of Russian crude oil.

Russia generated $19bn in oil exports last month, and $21bn in June, as stated in the report. It said: “The outlook for world oil supply has been revised upward, with more limited declines in Russian supply than previously forecast.”

According to the agency, Europe will be indebted to heavyweight oil majors in Saudi Arabia this winter due to a sharp decline in Russian gas shipments. The report also stated that global oil consumption would increase by 2.1 million barrels per day as factories and power plants try to avoid skyrocketing gas prices.

“Europe is worried about spare capacity – it’s basically only Saudi Arabia and the UAE that are holding any substantial amount of spare capacity”, Toril Bosoni, IEA’s oil market head, told Bloomberg TV.

Most EU countries have pledged to decrease their gas usage by 15% from August 2022 to March 2023. On this, the report said: “We believe that this will raise oil consumption by around 300,000 barrels per day over the following six quarters.”
https://www.offshore-technology.com/new ... roduction/

Re: la russie aurait-elle dépassé son 2e pic de production ?

par energy_isere » 16 juil. 2022, 09:50

La Russie pourrait perdre 85 milliards $ de recettes pétrogazières en raison de la décote de l’Oural

Agence Ecofin 14 juillet 2022

Malgré une production pétrolière qui s’est renforcée depuis le début de la guerre en Ukraine, la Russie devrait enregistrer des recettes pétrolières en baisse, cette année.

Dans une étude publiée en début de semaine, le cabinet norvégien d’analyses de données énergétiques, Rystad Energy a montré que le gouvernement russe pourrait enregistrer jusqu’à 85 milliards de dollars de recettes fiscales en moins sur le pétrole et le gaz en 2022.

Ceci, en raison de l’importante décote que subit l’Oural, le brut de référence de la Russie, depuis le mois d’avril dernier. Actuellement, l’Oural se négocie à environ 30-40 dollars par baril de moins que le Brent, le pétrole de référence mondiale. Cette décote du brut russe est le résultat des sanctions qui ont entraîné une réduction significative des importations d’énergies russes.

« En utilisant un écart fixe moyen de 40 dollars par baril entre le prix de l’Oural et le Brent, nous estimons que le revenu fiscal devrait être réduit de 85 milliards de dollars sur l’ensemble de l’année, soit une réduction de près de 30 % par rapport au scénario sans écart de prix entre les deux références de pétrole », a expliqué Rystad Energy.

Et d’estimer que le Kremlin n’encaissera qu’environ 210 milliards de dollars en revenus fiscaux sur le pétrole et le gaz cette année. Au même moment, la décote de l’Oural permet à certains pays asiatiques qui ne se sont pas alignés sur les sanctions économiques, d’importer du pétrole à un prix deux fois plus accessible.
https://www.agenceecofin.com/trade/1407 ... de-l-oural

Re: la russie aurait-elle dépassé son 2e pic de production ?

par energy_isere » 05 juil. 2022, 01:42

Russia Announces 82-Million-Ton Arctic Oil Discovery

By Julianne Geiger - Jul 04, 2022,

Russian state-run Rosneft has confirmed an 82-million-ton oil discovery in the Pechora Sea in the Arctic.

Rosneft discovered the field thanks to a drilling campaign in the Medynsko-Varandeysky area. “During the tests, a free flow of oil was obtained with a maximum flow rate of 220 cubic meters a day,” the company’s statement read on Wednesday, noting that the “oil is light, low-sulfur, low viscosity,” Rosneft said, describing the drilling campaign in the Medynsko-Varandeysky area, as reported by Russian RT.

Rosneft described the findings as proving “significant oil potential of the Timan-Pechora province on the shelf.”

According to Russian media, Rosneft has a controlling interest in 28 offshore licenses in the Arctic, eight of which are located in the Pechora Sea.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... overy.html

Re: la russie aurait-elle dépassé son 2e pic de production ?

par energy_isere » 27 mai 2022, 10:52

Novak Sees Russia Oil Output Shrinking 8%

By Irina Slav - May 26, 2022

> Russian Deputy PM Novak sees crude oil production fall by around 8% in 2022.

> Novak: The total oil output of the country this year could be between 480 and 500 million tons.

> Novak: Russia’s oil output declined by about 1 million bpd in April and is already recovering.


Crude oil production in Russia could shrink by up to 8 percent this year, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said today, as quoted by RIA Novosti.

The total oil output of the country this year could be between 480 and 500 million tons, Novak said, which would be a 5-8-percent decline from 2021. But this forecast could change depending on the situation, Novak said.

Earlier this year, the Russian economy ministry forecast a sharper decline in oil production, of about 9.3 percent to 475.3 million tons, under its base scenario. This rises to 17.2 percent in the ministry’s conservative scenario, or 433.8 million tons.

Novak said that the actual decline in production would be smaller, noting that in April, Russia’s oil output declined by about 1 million bpd and is already recovering. Novak added that the recovery would likely continue.

According to analysts, Russia’s oil output could yet shed as much as 3 million bpd in the second half of the year as a result of sanction action from the West. The sanctions will also continue to affect production trends in the future, too, as there is virtually no chance of the sanctions being lifted anytime soon.

Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer, is also the producer to suffer the biggest decline in production, according to industry data from the Russian Energy Ministry.

As of mid-May, Russia’s oil production was 830,000 bpd lower than it was in February. Rosneft—the top producer and the top refiner in Russia—accounted for 560,000 bpd of this drop, according to the ministry’s data, as cited by Bloomberg.

This means that Russia’s current production is below 10 million bpd, at around 9.16 million bpd, according to the Bloomberg calculations, and more than 1 million bpd below its quota under the OPEC+ production recovery agreement.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/N ... ing-8.html

Re: la russie aurait-elle dépassé son 2e pic de production ?

par energy_isere » 18 mai 2022, 02:28

Russian Oil Production Falls Almost 9% In April Amid Ukraine War

By Tsvetana Paraskova - May 17, 2022, oilprice

Russia’s crude oil production plunged by almost 9 percent in April to average just 9.16 million barrels per day (bpd), more than 1 million below the country’s quota in the OPEC+ deal, Reuters reported on Tuesday, quoting an internal report of OPEC+ secondary sources it had seen.

The estimated 9.16 million bpd crude production for last month compares to a 10.436 million bpd quota Russia had for April under the OPEC+ agreement. This suggests that Russia was already 1.276 million bpd short of its quota last month, and losses are likely to mount as of May.

The entire OPEC+ group pumped a massive 2.6 million bpd below its target in April, the OPEC+ assessment seen by Reuters showed.

Russian producers have started to shut in some wells as buyers in the West are increasingly shunning Russian crude and preparing to comply with whatever sanctions the EU would step up against Moscow over Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

As a result, Russia’s oil production is already falling and will continue dropping in the coming months and years as Moscow will not be able to redirect to China and India all the volumes it is losing in Europe—its biggest oil market before the invasion of Ukraine.

Restrictions, combined with the lack of access to Western technology to pump harder-to-recover oil and enhance production from maturing wells will hit Russia’s oil industry not only in the near term but also in the long term, analysts say.

Russia itself has admitted that its oil production could drop by 17 percent this year due to the sanctions, TASS news agency reported, citing Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. In April alone, oil production fell by 9 percent from March.

In the closely watched Oil Market Report last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that Russia already shut in nearly 1 million bpd in April, driving down global oil supply by 710,000 bpd to 98.1 million bpd.

So far, Russian exports have held up, but as of May 15, the major international trading houses had to halt all transactions with state-controlled Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Transneft, the agency noted.

“Following a supply decline of nearly 1 mb/d in April, losses could expand to around 3 mb/d during the second half of the year,” the IEA said, referring to Russia’s oil supply.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... e-War.html

Re: la russie aurait-elle dépassé son 2e pic de production ?

par energy_isere » 15 mai 2022, 15:10

Baisse de 14% des exportations Russes de diesel :
Russia Diesel Exports Drop Sharply In April

By Irina Slav - May 13, 2022 oilprice

Russian diesel fuel exports last month fell by 14 percent, or 500,000 tons, last month as buyers shunned the product amid Western sanctions on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.

“The largest decrease can be seen from the Black Sea ports as self-sanctioning starts to kick in by certain European countries,” Pamela Munger, senior market analyst at Vortexa, told Bloomberg today. “The UK, France and Italy have all reduced imports of Russian diesel.”

Total diesel fuel exports from Russia in April stood at 3.32 million tons, which compared with 3.88 million tons in February, the last month without sanctions.

“Looking forward, we could see a drop in Russian diesel exports as Russia seeks alternative buyers and Europe looks for alternative sources,” Munger added, as more EU sanctions targeting Russia’s energy industry take effect.

The resulting supply reduction will fuel already significant inflation in diesel prices not only in Europe but in the United States as well. The inflation stems from growing supply tightness brought about by a decline in refining capacity during the pandemic coinciding with a faster than expected rebound in demand.

In the United States, diesel prices have been breaking records in the past few weeks, sparking worry for the wider economy as the bulk of freight transport uses diesel as a fuel.

“I’ve started to use the term diesel ‘crisis,’ Tom Kloza, head of global energy research at OPIS, told CNBC in late April. “It clearly is a crisis that’s happening before our eyes. I wouldn’t rule out lines, shortages or $6 [price] in places beyond California. I wouldn’t say it’s a shortage yet. Europe, I think they’re headed for a shortage,” he said.

Diesel prices are breaking records in Europe, too. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier today that wholesale diesel prices have added as much as 88 percent over the past 12 months, and the continent is facing a shortage of the fuel amid the Russia sanctions.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... April.html

Re: la russie aurait-elle dépassé son 2e pic de production ?

par energy_isere » 19 mars 2022, 11:25

La production pétrolière russe pourrait chuter d’environ un quart le mois prochain

Agence Ecofin 16 mars 2022

Comme prévu par de nombreux experts et analystes, la guerre en Ukraine devrait exercer une forte pression à la hausse sur les cours de l’énergie.

La production pétrolière russe pourrait chuter de 3 millions de barils par jour, pour atteindre 8,6 millions de barils par jour à partir du mois prochain. C’est ce qu’indique dans son rapport mensuel publié ce mercredi 16 mars, l’Agence internationale de l’énergie (AIE).

Pour les experts de l’AIE, ce sera le résultat de l’hésitation voire du refus de certains acheteurs et négociants de s’approvisionner en pétrole russe, en réponse à l’opération militaire menée depuis le mois dernier par le Kremlin en Ukraine.

Des entreprises comme TotalEnergies et Shell se sont engagées à réduire leurs importations de pétrole russe. La situation pourrait infliger au marché le plus grand choc d’approvisionnement depuis plusieurs décennies et propulser les cours bien au-delà de la barre historique des 140 dollars le baril, dans un contexte où la demande post-pandémique met déjà à rude épreuve l’offre globale.

« Les implications d’une perte potentielle des exportations de pétrole russe sur les marchés mondiaux ne peuvent être sous-estimées […]. S’il est encore trop tôt pour savoir comment les événements vont se dérouler, la crise pourrait entraîner des changements durables sur les marchés de l’énergie. », précise le rapport de l’Agence.

......................
https://www.agenceecofin.com/production ... s-prochain

Re: la russie aurait-elle dépassé son 2e pic de production ?

par energy_isere » 23 janv. 2022, 12:07

Rystad Energy voit la production pétrolière Russe peaker à mi 2023 à 12.2 millions de b/j.
Russia’s Oil Output Could Peak In 2023

By Matthew Smith - Jan 22, 2022

>There are growing doubts as to whether Russia can grow petroleum production to the volumes forecast by Moscow.

>The world’s third-largest oil producer’s output will continue growing, peaking at 12.2 million barrels per day by mid-2023, according to Rystad Energy.

>A combination of extreme climate, rising depletion rates and U.S. sanctions potentially blocking access to investment is weighing on the development of hydrocarbon projects.


Russia, the world’s third-largest oil producer, has long been an unknown when it comes to the OPEC+ production agreement which caps the petroleum output of participants to support higher prices. It was Moscow’s spat with Saudi Arabia over production quotas in early 2020 which, combined with the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, caused crude oil prices to plunge into negative territory for the first time ever. The North American benchmark West Texas Intermediate plunged to minus $37.63 per barrel before recovering, while Brent did not enter negative territory the international benchmark, plunged to an intraday low of less than $15 per barrel. During that time Moscow, Riyadh and other OPEC+ signatories were finally able to agree on production quotas. However, Moscow’s economic ambitions remain a threat to the agreement’s firmness, particularly with Washington threatening further sanctions. With OPEC gradually expanding production quotas set out in the agreement confirmed at the 19th ministerial meeting, there is considerable speculation as to how much global petroleum supply will expand and how that will affect crude oil prices. A key point of conjecture is whether Russia can grow its crude oil output as planned and allowed by its OPEC+ quota, with it speculated that the world’s third-largest oil producer is operating at or near capacity.
For December 2021 Russia, according to the Ministry of Energy, pumped an average of 10.903 million barrels of crude oil and gas condensate daily. That number was marginally lower than the 10.906 million barrels produced per day for November 2021 but an impressive 8.4% higher compared to the same period a year earlier.

Government data shows that total annual oil and gas condensate production during 2021 averaged 10.5 million barrels per day, which is over 2% higher than a year earlier. It is anticipated that Russia’s crude oil output will expand further during 2022. The energy ministry predicts that forecast average annual daily crude oil output will climb to between 10.84 million and 11.05 million barrels, which is a 3% to 5% increase over 2021.

Despite concerns that Russia’s petroleum industry reaching production capacity Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, in October 2021, claimed there is ample room to expand crude oil output. Novak, who is the Kremlin’s key negotiator with OPEC, claimed Russia possesses sufficient spare capacity to ramp up production to over 11 million barrels per day. To support this assertion the deputy prime minister cited earlier production records where Russia was pumping up to 11.4 million barrels daily, in February 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic hit forcing operational shut-ins. While some analysts believe this is not achievable, industry consultancy Rystad Energy, in an August 2021 press release, predicted that Russia’s petroleum production during July 2022 will hit a new record. Rystad is tipping that the world’s third-largest oil producer will pump 11.6 million barrels per day during that month which, if achieved, represents a notable 11% increase compared to the same month in 2021. The consultancy went on to forecast that the world’s third-largest oil producer’s output will continue growing, peaking at 12.2 million barrels per day by mid-2023.

Regardless of those optimistic predictions, there are signs that Russia could struggle to lift petroleum production as predicted. The primary elements governing Moscow’s planned increase in crude oil output are Russia’s OPEC+ quota, external factors such as climate and whether the petroleum industry has spare productive capacity. Under the OPEC+ agreement, which was confirmed at the July 2021 19th Ministerial Meeting, Russia is permitted to pump up to 11 million barrels of crude oil daily until the end of April 2022. For May 2022, the quota will increase to 11.5 million barrels of crude oil per day. Energy consultancy Platts Analytics, in a December 2021 statement, indicated that Russia can produce the volume permitted by the OPEC+ agreement.

Nevertheless, there are several headwinds that can impact Russia’s planned expansion of its petroleum production. One notable risk is the impact of extreme winters on Russia’s hydrocarbon sector, which is an ongoing threat to industry operations and the ability to expand petroleum output. Current harsh subzero temperatures are hampering petroleum operations forcing wells to be shut-in and reducing pipeline flows. That will impact Russia’s January 2022 crude oil production volumes, meaning the country may not achieve the target set by Novak who in a TASS article stated the country would pump 10.1 million barrels of crude oil daily for the month. This has sparked speculation among industry analysts that Russia will not meet its January 2022 OPEC+ production quota of 10.122 million barrels per day. There is also the potential for the coronavirus to sharply impact industry operations with COVID-19 cases soaring since the emergence of the Omicron variant. Russia is ranked sixth globally by COVID-19 cases and fourth for deaths. Pandemic related supply chain breakdowns and the threat of further lockdowns are weighing on the planned ramp-up of industry activity to support the projected production growth. U.S and European Union sanctions against Russia, in response to among other incidents the invasion of the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, are also a major risk that may impact plans to grow petroleum production. The sanctions targeting various individuals, commercial entities and vessels, including the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, prevent access to U.S. capital as well as technology to be used in hydrocarbon exploration and field development.

Furthermore, recent investment in developing greenfield and brownfield petroleum projects will not be enough to bolster Russia’s crude oil output. Analysts are concerned that rising oilfield depletion rates will more than offset the volume of new production coming online as various projects are completed and online. The U.S. Energy Information Administration went as far as to state that the development of greenfield projects in Russia may be unable to boost production much higher than the 10.9 million barrels pumped during December 2021. This, according to the EIA, is because the additional barrels those operations will add, when operations come online, are offset by declining output from mature oilfields, particularly in Siberia.

There are growing doubts as to whether Russia can grow petroleum production to the volumes forecast by Moscow and pump the amount of crude oil allowed by the OPEC+ agreement. This is despite some industry experts including Rystad and Platts Analytics predicting that Russian petroleum production will hit a new record by July 2022 and continue rising into 2023. The headwinds faced by Russia’s oil industry could derail those plans. A combination of extreme climate, rising depletion rates in mature Siberian oilfields and U.S. sanctions potentially blocking access to industry investment as well as technology is weighing on the development of hydrocarbon projects. If Russia is unable to grow its oil production at the rate predicted and allowed by its OPEC+ quota, with the country permitted to pump 11.5 million barrels per day as of May 2022, then global supply will not expand as expected. This is because not only are there questions about whether Russia‘s petroleum industry is reaching capacity but if OPEC can lift crude oil output as planned during 2022. If supply does not grow, crude oil prices will remain high further underpinning the inflationary threat which has emerged and possesses the potential to derail the global post-pandemic economic recovery.

Re: la russie aurait-elle dépassé son 2e pic de production ?

par energy_isere » 11 nov. 2021, 00:08

Russian Oil And Gas Discoveries Plunge To Five-Year Low

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Nov 10, 2021

Russia’s oil and gas discoveries fell to the lowest in five years in the first half of 2021, after last year’s crisis resulted in steep cuts in capital expenditures for exploration, data and analytics company GlobalData said on Wednesday.

In the first half this year, Russian companies found oil and gas at six very small fields, adding just 36 million barrels to reserves, which is equivalent to fewer than four days of Russian daily oil production, according to GlobalData estimates.

While Russian oil production and revenues have benefited this year from the much higher oil prices due to the OPEC+ cuts and rebounding global demand, exploration has continued to suffer from the COVID-inflicted crisis in 2020, which forced companies to slash capex for exploration drilling, Anna Belova, Oil & Gas Analyst at GlobalData, said.

“To retain its place as one of the top oil and gas producing nations, Russia needs to ensure a steady pace of discoveries to replace produced reserves. Otherwise, the effects of COVID-19 and reduced investments will be felt by the Russian oil and gas sector well after the pandemic subsides,” Belova said, commenting on GlobalData’s findings.

The easing of the OPEC+ cuts as per the agreement in which Russia leads the non-OPEC producers, coupled with the recovery in demand, has allowed Russia to boost its oil production in recent months.

Russia saw its crude oil and condensate production rise in October for a second consecutive month, to stand at 10.843 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, according to Bloomberg estimates based on data from the Russian energy ministry.

However, Russia’s condensate production—estimated at around 800,000 bpd-900,000—is not part of the OPEC+ production cuts, so it’s not easy to assess how much crude oil Russia is really pumping.

The energy ministry’s data does not discriminate between crude oil and condensate production, so the market and analysts assess crude output by estimating condensate production levels.

This year, Russia’s crude oil and condensate production will rise by 0.8 percent to 517 million tons, Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said on Wednesday, as carried by TASS.

This equals an average annual production of 10.38 million bpd based on a 7.33 barrel-per-ton conversion ratio.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... r-Low.html

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