Peakistes Vs CERA : Pari à 100 000 $ sur la production

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Peakistes Vs CERA : Pari à 100 000 $ sur la production

Message par Saratoga Elensar » 06 févr. 2008, 21:32

J'adore l'idée :D
Wager Challenges CERA Oil Supply Prediction

Group bets $100,000 against CERA supply forecast

HOUSTON (Feb. 6, 2008) – A group of businessmen and energy experts who believe that global oil production will soon peak, plateau and decline has issued a $100,000 wager to Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), a prominent oil forecasting think tank. Members of the challenger group also renewed an invitation to hold a public debate on the issue of peak oil with CERA.

The group is betting against CERA’s June 2007 forecast that world oil production capacity will reach 112 million barrels per day (mmb/d) by 2017, which extrapolates* to107 mmb/d of actual production, up from about 87 million barrels today. CERA will hold its annual conference in Houston next week.

“CERA is forecasting an addition of 20 million barrels within a decade,” said Steve Andrews, co-founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil-USA (ASPO-USA). “That’s a vision in search of reality. Anything is possible on paper, but we are betting you can’t do that with the drill bit.”

The challenger group also notes that CERA called for a civil dialogue on peak oil, but then declined several invitations to engage in such a conversation. Andrews said members of ASPO-USA would be happy to debate the issue, during CERA week, or at another time and place that is mutually convenient.

The 11 members of the betting pool have issued the wager to raise awareness about the fragile state of the world’s future oil supplies. Participants include Jeremy Gilbert (former Chief Petroleum Engineer for British Petroleum), Matt Simmons (Houston energy banker), Jean Laherrere (retired oil executive), Herman Franssen (economist), Marvin Gottlieb (businessman), Jim Baldauf (ASPO-USA co-founder), Steve Andrews, Bob Kanner (investment manager), Scott Pugh (retired Captain U.S. Navy), Aage Figenschou (oil industry, shipping), and Randy Udall (ASPO-USA co-founder) and Andrews.

“CERA’s claims of ‘plentiful energy resources’ are misguided, overly optimistic and out of touch with recent warnings from oil industry CEOs,” Udall said.

“CERA projections have been wrong so often that policy makers should think twice about embracing their data,” added Bob Kanner, CEO of Cleveland-based PubCo Corporation, who has wide-ranging investments in the oil and gas industry. “I’m participating in this bet to illustrate the need for greater truth and clarity in the prediction of oil and gas supplies. We’re not just betting our money, we’re betting our nation’s future.”

Marvin Gottlieb, who operated an international business for more than 40 years, understands the geopolitical forces that spawn conflict around the globe.

“Shifting patterns in global military and economic alliances are troublesome. Energy concerns are pitting American interests against those of Russia, Iran, and China. American politicians must recognize the dangers of ignoring resource depletion. Energy realities are AWOL, absent without leave, in the current presidential campaign,” Gottlieb said.

“Between 1950 and 2005, global oil production grew 800 percent,” Udall said. “But now oil production in more than 50 nations is in decline. Evidence indicates that a peak in global production is near.”

To call the bet, CERA must match the Peak Oil group’s $100,000 letter of credit from National City Corporation. In the event production in 2017 doesn’t exceed CERA’s forecast of 107 million b/d, the individuals of the group have agreed to donate their winnings to an energy-focused non-profit organization.

“If the CERA seers really believe their crystal balls, they should call our bet,” said Texas oilman Baldauf.

ABOUT ASPO-USA

ASPO-USA is a non-profit, non-partisan group dedicated to educating the public and decision-makers about our peak oil and natural gas energy challenges. ASPO-USA’s 2007 Peak Oil Conference was held in Houston. The 2008 Conference will be held in Sacramento California from Sept. 21-23. For more information visit http://www.aspousa.org.

*Note: Because “production capacity” is hard to verify, and since it might require access to and disclosure of proprietary information, the wager proposes an alternative threshold: Since world oil production at the end of 2007 was roughly 87 mmb/d, a ratio of (87/91) X 112 would be an equivalent production threshold. That threshold would be 107 mmb/d.
http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?optio ... &Itemid=91
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Re: Peakistes Vs CERA : Pari à 100 000 $ sur la production

Message par vincent128 » 07 févr. 2008, 00:09

Excellent ! Ca a le mérite d'attirer l'attention sur le sujet.

Si c'était possible, je parierais bien volontiers, à ma modeste mesure, que le CERA se plante. Disons que je pourrais parier jusqu'à 100 euros, ou plutôt, pourquoi pas, un napoléon que j'ai payé 100 euros fin 2007, histoire de parier quelque chose qui aura resisté à l'inflation d'ici 2017. Quelqu'un est-il intéressé pour parier la moindre cacahuète sur la prévision du CERA ?
Le fond de l'air est frais.

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Re: Peakistes Vs CERA : Pari à 100 000 $ sur la production

Message par energy_isere » 11 févr. 2008, 13:06

La semaine prochaine le CERA organise sa conférence annulle (a Houston) avec des milliers de participants.

A cette occasion l' ASPO réaffirme son par de 100000 $ conrtre les prévisions du CERA pour 2017.

Le pari est trés sérieux, et "garanti" auprés d'une banque.
In what looks like a dig at CERA's trustworthiness, ASPO said that to call the bet, CERA "must match" the group's $100,000 letter of credit from National City Corporation, a Cleveland, Ohio-based financial holding company.
dans energybulletin :
http://www.energybulletin.net/40129.html

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Re: Peakistes Vs CERA : Pari à 100 000 $ sur la production

Message par GillesH38 » 12 févr. 2008, 08:40

quelques commentaires supplémentaires d'ASPO-USA sur le pari à 100 000 $

http://www.energybulletin.net/40165.html

L'auteur remarque malicieusement que le CERA risque de ne pas trouver beaucoup de soutien de la part des compagnies et instituts officiels, qui sont de plus en plus nombreux (y compris l'IFP et Total) à déclarer que 100 Mbl/j est une hypothèse très optimiste ;-).
Zan, zendegi, azadi. Il parait que " je propage la haine du Hamas".

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Re: Peakistes Vs CERA : Pari à 100 000 $ sur la production

Message par energy_isere » 07 août 2015, 18:52

.....

The group is betting against CERA’s June 2007 forecast that world oil production capacity will reach 112 million barrels per day (mmb/d) by 2017, which extrapolates* to107 mmb/d of actual production, up from about 87 million barrels today. CERA will hold its annual conference in Houston next week. ....
et bien il reste 2 ans pour l' échéance 2017, et visiblement la production n' atteaindra pas les 112 millions b/j en 2017. :-P


Sinon IHS CERA existe toujours. Ils se sont fait leur réunion annuelle dans un hotel à Houston au mois d' avril.
Energy’s New World: Reporting From IHS CERAweek

By: Dan Boyce | April 27, 2015

For a week each year, a hotel in Houston, Texas becomes the center of the world of energy. Executives from around the globe as well as top government officials descend on the city for the annual IHS CERAWeek conference, which drew to a close last Friday.

The meeting was a chance for these leaders to grapple with a change few could have predicted at the same event a year earlier -- oil prices dropping by more than half and industry layoffs which some estimates put at 75,000 jobs lost so far.
..................
http://insideenergy.org/2015/04/27/ener ... -ceraweek/

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