L'Iran va vendre le pétrole en Euros

[MadMax]

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C'est une analyse.

[Tiennel]

About the Author : Krassimir Petrov (Krassimir_Petrov@hotmail.com) has received his Ph. D. in economics from the Ohio State University and currently teaches Macroeconomics, International Finance, and Econometrics at the American University in Bulgaria

Pas spécialement bien placé pour jouer l'insider d'un projet de Bourse à Téhéran... à moins que ses sources lui envoient régulièrement des mails ?

[energy_isere]

un nouvel article :

Trading oil in euros – does it matter?

de Cóilín Nunan

texte assez long (je recopie pas ici) : http://www.energybulletin.net/12463.html

Krassimir Petrov est cité en reference n°2.

[Djian]

Les US vont-ils appliquer à L'iran le même scénario qu'avec l'Irak???

Petro-Euro? The question now is what will the Bush administration do?

Aljazeera.com: Iran's nuclear projects, alleged WMDs, or its supposed support of "terrorist organizations" as the Bush administration claims does not pose a threat to Washington.

What does pose as a threat is Iran's attempt to re-shape the global economical system by converting it from a petro-dollar to a petro-euro system.
Such a conversion is looked upon as a flagrant declaration of economical war against the US which would flatten the revenues of the American corporations and could eventually cause an economic collapse.

In June 2004, Iran declared its intention in setting up an international oil exchange (a bourse) denominated in the Euro currency ... many oil-producing as well as oil-consuming countries had expressed their welcome to such petro-euro bourse. Des noms siouplé m'sieur

According to Iranian reports this bourse is due to start trading in early 2006.

Naturally such an oil exchange would compete against London's International Petroleum Exchange (IPE), as well as against the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), both owned by American corporations.

Oil consuming countries have no choice but to use the US$ in order to purchase their oil, since the US$ has so far been the global standard monetary fund for oil exchange ... this in turn requires these countries to keep the US$ in their central banks as their reserve fund, therefore 'helping' in strengthening the American economy. Et c'est bien là tout l'enjeu....

However, if Iran, followed by other oil-producing countries, begins to accept the Euro as another choice for oil exchange the American economy would suffer greatly, what many would call 'a real crisis.'

A 'crisis' such as this could be witnessed as early as the end of 2005 and beginning of 2006 when oil investors would have the choice to pay US$57 a barrel of oil at the American (NYMEX) and at London's (IPE), or pay 37 Euros a barrel at the Iranian oil bourse.

Such a choice would reduce trade volumes at both the US$-dependent NYMEX and the IPE.
Many countries have studied the conversion from the ever weakening petro-dollar to the gradually strengthening petro-euro system. The de-valuation of the US$ was caused by the American economy shying away from manufacturing local products, except those of the military, by outsourcing American jobs to cheaper developing countries and depending only on the general service sector, and by the huge cost of two major wars that are still going on. Et c'est pas demain que ça va changer....

What's more, foreign investors have started to withdraw their money from the shaky American market causing further devaluation of the dollar. ... et ca, c'est plutôt fort comme signal mais encore uen fois, aucune donnée chiffrée....

Any keen follower of financial markets would not have failed to notice that the devaluation of the US$ began since November 2002, while the purchasing power of the Euro has slowly, but surely crept upward. The US$ has also dropped in value in comparison to the Japanese Yen while the British pound climbed another notch.

Economic reports published early March pointed at the nose-dive the American economy has taken and to the quick rise of the deficit, up to $665.90 billion at the end of 2004.

The worst is still to come.

These numbers worried international banks, who'd warned the Bush administration of something like this would happen.

Iran is treading the same economical war path Saddam Hussein started when in 2000 he converted all of the Iraq's reserve from the US$ to the Euro, and demanded payments in Euro for Iraqi oil.

Many economists then mocked Saddam because he had lost a lot of money in this conversion ... yet they were very surprised when he recuperated his losses in less than a year due to the valuation of the Euro.

The US administration became aware of the threat when central banks of many countries started keeping Euros alongside US$ as their monetary reserve and as an exchange fund for oil.
In order to avoid an economical collapse the Bush administration hastened to invade and destroy Iraq under false excuses so as to set it as an example for any country who may contemplate dropping the dollar. It was also an attempt to manipulate OPEC's decisions by controlling the second largest oil resource -- sale of Iraqi oil has since been reverted back to the petro-dollar standard.

There is only one technical obstacle concerning the use of a euro-based oil exchange system, which is the lack of a euro-denominated oil pricing standard, or oil 'marker' as it's referred to in the industry. The three current oil markers are US$-denominated, which include the West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), Norway Brent crude, and the UAE Dubai crude. Yet this did not stop Iran from requiring payments in the Euro currency for its European and Asian oil exports since spring 2003.

Iran's determination in using the petro-euro is inviting in other countries such as Russia and Latin American countries, and even some Saudi investors. This determination has led to the aggressive American political campaign in using the same excuses applied against Iraq: WMD in the form of nuclear bomb, support to "terrorist" Lebanese Hezbollah organization, and threat to the peace process in the Middle East.

The question now is what will the Bush administration do?

Will it invade Iran as it did Iraq?

The American military is already involved knee-deep in Iraq and the global community, with the exception of Britain and Italy, isn't offering any military relief to the US.

Hence an American strike against Iran is highly unlikely.
Iran is not Iraq; it has a more robust military power, has anti-ship missiles based in the "Abu Mousa" island which sits in the strait of Hermuz at the entrance of the Persian Gulf. Iran could easily close the strait and block all naval traffic carrying Gulf oil to the rest of the world causing a global crisis ratcheting the price of an oil barrel to $100. The US cannot topple the regime by spreading chaos the same way it did to Mussadaq's regime in 1953 since the Iranians are now more aware of such a trick.

Besides Iranians have a patriotic pride of what they call "their bomb."

What Washington has resorted to is the instigation and encouragement of Israel, to strike Iran's nuclear reactors the way it did to Iraq.

Leaked reports have revealed that Israeli forces are training for such an attack expected to take place next June.

Israel is afraid of an Iranian bomb which would threaten its military hegemony in the Middle East; would extract Israeli concessions and create an arms race which would gobble a lot of Israeli defense expenditure.

Furthermore the bomb would force the US to enter into negotiations with Iran further limiting Israeli expansion ambitions.

[thorgal]

à en croire cet article, on comprend très bien pourquoi l'Iran cherche à frabriquer sa propre bombe nucléaire, un argument de poids contre une éventuelle attaque des US (si ces derniers pouvaient se le permettre car il y a des rapports montrant que l'armée US est plutôt arrivée à sa capacité maximale d'action avec l'Irak, l'Afghanistan, etc).

Un véritable jeu d'échec à l'échelle mondiale ... j'espère que ça va pas déborder ...

[Djian]

Depuis le début de son deuxième mandat, Bush réorganise le déploiement de ses troupes. Les GI stationnés par exemple en Allemagne ou au Japon se sont vus remis de nouvelles affectations par exemple. Il y a eu une émission très très intéressante sur Arte au début de l'année 2005 qui expliquait cela très bien et pour la majorité d'entre eux, leur nouvelle affectation se trouvait au proche orient ou en asie.... question de priorités

[thorgal]

non seulement ça mais aussi un redéploiements de leurs diplomates :

voir http://www.rfi.fr/actufr/articles/073/article_41224.asp

que j'ai collé dans le fil "Les Grande Manœuvres" avec une jolie photo de Condi ...

[mahiahi]

Et bientôt, dans les livres d'Histoire, on apprendra que l'empire américain a évacué le Japon (livré à la Chine) et l'Europe (livrée à la Russie) pour s'emparer du pétrole du Moyen Orient.

Euh... M'sieur, c'est quoi le pétrole?

[BigLolo]

Salut,

Quoi que datant quelque peu (ce qui fait d'autant mieux ressortir sa pertinence), une analyse concise, claire et bien écrite à ce sujet : 19/09/2005 - L'Iran passe à l'euro: vers une guerre du pétrole?

[thorgal]

salut BigLolo, un message après une inscription le 21 juin dernier ? eh beh! pas comme tout le monde ici

[manager]

Bon article

Encore 1 mois et 20 jours à attendre.

en 2006 ça va être chaud bouillant !!!

[BigLolo]

salut BigLolo

Salut Thorgal (& les autres aussi bien sûr)

un message après une inscription le 21 juin dernier ? eh beh! pas comme tout le monde ici

Oui, tu l'as dit ... la timidité peut-être ...
Et si tu savais tout ... ça n'est pas le moindre de mes paradoxes ... (il m'arrive de rouler en 4x4 ... mais je me suis plusieurs fois battu sur des forum quatre-quatreux pour les sensibiliser au Peak Oil )

[mahiahi]

Dîtes, et si on essayait de faire de la publicité à cette histoire de bourse en €?
En expliquant que c'est précisement ce qu'avait tenté l'Irak juste avant d'être envahi, on a des chances d'ouvrir les yeux à quelques personnes!
Pourquoi ne pas écrire aux journaux et leur demander un article dessus?

Je réagis au sujet, c'est pour çà que je n'ai pas créé un fil dédié dans "politique nationale" : si un modérateur pense autrement, il peut le déplacer

[thorgal]

j'écris régulièrement à la rédaction du site web de RFI pour les inciter à placer un lien permanent vers un dossier de presse PO sur la page d'accueil. Je suis lourdingue avec eux mais chaque fois qu'ils publient un article ayant de près ou de loin un rapport avec PO, je les tanne. Ils m'ont déjà répondu d'ailleurs qu'ils avaient déjà adressé le problème ... je leur ai répondu que sans pétrole, pas de RFI alors ça mérite un lien permanent, non ?

bref, je l'attends toujours, on va voir.

[hyperion]

et pourquoi ,les russes ,ils ne font pas une bourse en euro ou rouble?
ils ont ^pourtant pas mal de têtes nucléaire pour les protéger.