Gaz et pétrole en Iran

[geopolis]

Loukoil se désengage progressivement du marché iranien avec l'annonce aujourd'hui de la décision de stopper ses livraisons de carburant a l'Iran et la suspension de son projet d'exploration du champ pétrolier d'anaran (voir plus haut).

Loukoil va mettre fin à ses livraisons de carburant en Iran

MOSCOU/DUBAI, 7 avril (Reuters) - La compagnie pétrolière russe Loukoil va cesser ses livraisons de carburant à l'Iran, a-t-on appris mercredi de sources industrielles.
D'autres firmes telles que Shell ont déjà renoncé à leurs exportations à destination de la République islamique dans la perspective de nouvelles sanctions internationales pour condamner la poursuite de ses activités nucléaires sensibles.
Loukoil, deuxième compagnie pétrolière russe, livrait de 250.000 à 500.000 barils par mois à l'Iran, selon des courtiers. "Il ne s'agit pas d'un fournisseur majeur de carburant pour l'Iran. Mais ils vont arrêter du fait des pressions du siège moscovite", a dit l'un d'eux.

La direction de la compagnie s'est refusée à tout commentaire.
Loukoil exploite 2.000 stations-service aux Etats-Unis, où un projet de loi visant à pénaliser les firmes qui traitent avec l'Iran est à l'étude.

[Raminagrobis]

C'est fou cette histoire d'essence.
L'Iran consomme environ 1.7 Mb/j de pétrole, c'est pas mal. Ca fait 8.6 barils par an et par habitant, pas très loin de la France (10.6 b/j/h). Surtout que la conso de gaz par habitant, elle, est très supérieure à celle de la France (pas loin de triple!).

Et c'est 40% de sa production de brut.
Courbes EIA :



Sur ces 1.7 Mb/j, 0.4 Mb/j d'essence, vendue dans le pays à un prix dérisoire de 10 centimes le litre.

Un tiers de cet essence est importée, les raffineries du pays étant insuffisante.

Cette essence est importée à un prix évidemment supérieur à 10 centimes le litre. Et même pour l'essence produite dans le pays avec du brut national, je doute fort que ce prix ridicule couvre tous les couts, extraction, transport, raffinage, stockage, distribution (sans même parler du manque à gagner par non-exportation du pétrole).

Celà signifie que l'état iranien dépense des fortunes pour quasiment offrir de l'essence à la population. Et c'est d'ailleurs vrai pour la plupart des pays de l'opep, à diverses degrès.

Et si le vrai but des "pressions" était de forcer l'iran à renchérir le prix de l'essence sur le marché intérieur, pour atténuer "l'export land model" et ainsi maintenir un peu plus de pétrole dispo pour nous autres pays importateurs ?

[geopolis]

quelques chiffres supplémentaires.


La consommation iranienne en essence est de l'ordre de 67 millions de litres / jour soit 421000 b/j en produit 45 million ( 283 000 b/j) et doit donc importé environ 22 millions de litres par jour soit 139 000 b/j pour satisfaire la demande intérieur. La Chine et le Vénézuela fournissent 50 % des besoins en essence de Teheran.

En 2010 l'Iran devrait pouvoir augmenter sa capacité de production en essence de 63 000 b/j et de devenir peut-être auto-suffisant d'ici 2012.

Iran Says it is Close to Finalising Two Refinery Expansion Projects

IHS Global Insight Daily Analysis (22/02/2010)

Iran is aiming for the completion of two refining capacity expansion projects this year, allowing it to increase its gasoline (petrol) production capacity significantly and making it less vulnerable to potential international sanctions against fuel traders. "The cat cracker project at Abadan oil refinery and the first phase of Shazand oil refinery in Arak will be commissioned next year", managing director of the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Co. (NIORDC), Noureddin Shahnazi, was quoted by Reuters as telling Iran’s Mehr news agency, referring to the next Iranian year, which commences in March. The catalytic cracker in Abadan and the Arak facility will together raise Iran’s gasoline production capacity by 11.6 million litres per day (l/d), with a further 13 million l/d of production capacity expected to come onstream through another five projects within the coming two years (see Iran: 29 January 2010: ).

Iran currently imports 40% of its gasoline need—about 20–23 million l/d—and finds itself in a position where it then has to market the fuel at highly subsidies rates domestically, at a huge annual cost to the state budget( voir le post de Raminagrobis juste au dessus).Significance: Iran’s ambitious programme to raise its gasoline and diesel production capacity over the coming years and become self sufficient by 2012–13 has hit delays and problems, given its inability to source some of the necessary components internationally due to the tightening international sanctions environment over the past few years. Still, Iran has a lot of domestic know-how in the petrochemical field and, while struggling to refine its increasing heavy oil production efficiently due to its technological lag, has been able to raise its condensate production substantially over the past decade together with the development of offshore gas fields such as South Pars, which is relatively straightforward to refine into large quantities of motor fuel.

j'ajoute une info du début de la semaine sur l'importation d'essence.

Iran April gasoline imports at 128,000 bpd


* Iran April gasoline buys steady to March
* Iran paying higher premium for gasoline

DUBAI, April 5 (Reuters) - Iran's April gasoline imports were expected to be steady to the previous month, showing no signs of slowing down even as top independant traders and international oil firms pledged to stop sales to the Islamic Republic.
Iran was expected to purchase up to 128,000 barrels per day (bpd) of gasoline from the spot market in April, or about 15 cargoes, traders said on Monday.
"This is more or less what they will do this month, so far they are still finding ready sellers on the market," a Middle East based trader said.
Europe's largest oil company, Royal Dutch Shell , and top trading firms Glencore and Vitol have halted gasoline sales to Iran.

The move comes as U.S. politicians work on legislation to slap sanctions on suppliers of fuel to Iran to increase pressure on the Islamic Republic to halt uranium enrichment.
Western powers accuse Tehran of using its atomic programme to develop weapons, while Iran insists it needs nuclear electricity.
But despite the stricter sanctions regime, Iran is still finding ways to tap into supplies from the international spot market from France's Total , Malaysia's state oil firm Petronas and Kuwait's Independent Petroleum Group (IPG).
"Unless you take punitive measures against these companies like barring them from doing business in the United States and freezing their assets tied to related investements, the picture won't change," an Asian based trade.

Although Iran has been having no problems finding sellers, it had to pay relatively high premiums for its recent purchases, traders said.
Iran purchased gasoline from the international spot market for April at Middle East naphtha plus $90-$100 a barrel.
The premiums were about 10-15 percent higher than purchases seen in January and February, traders said.
"They are paying a premium now which is slightly over the market, as long as they can pay they won't have issues importing," a trader said.

[geopolis]

Le malaisien Petronas a annoncé hier qu'il avait stoppé depuis la mi-mars la fourniture de carburant a l'Iran.

Malaysia's Petronas stops selling gasoline to Iran

* Stopped supplying Iran with gasoline since mid-March
* News comes after a China sold 2 cargoes to Iran

KUALA LUMPUR/DUBAI, April 15 (Reuters) - Malaysia's state oil firm Petronas has stopped supplying gasoline to Iran, a spokesman told Reuters on Thursday.
"We have stopped supplying gasoline to Iran since the middle of March," the spokesman told Reuters via a mobile text message.
The news comes after industry sources told Reuters a Chinese state oil company had sold two cargoes of gasoline to Iran, underscoring Beijing's desire to maintain economic ties despite the U.N. pressing for economic sanctions.
Petronas last shipped a gasoline cargo into the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas between March 4 and 5, industry sources said.
The 255,000 barrel cargo was loaded from the United Arab Emirates port of Jebel Ali, a key transhipment and oil storage hub for fuel supply in the region.
The Malaysian company has been shipping about 16,000 barrels per day (bpd) of the motor fuel to Tehran since the fourth quarter of 2009, traders said.
Petronas has been supporting sales to Iran via its fuel storage tanks at the port of Fujairah in the UAE.

[energy_isere]

En revanche la Chine pas disposée du tout à interompre les livraisons de carburants à l' Iran :

Pour compenser le retrait des raffineurs occidentaux, la Chine va livrer 30 000 tonnes de carburant à l’Iran (Vc Star)

jeudi 15 avril bréve de contreinfo

A state-owned Chinese refiner plans to ship 30,000 metric tons of gasoline to Iran after European traders halted shipments ahead of possible new U.N. sanctions, according to Singapore ship brokers.

Beijing has growing commercial and political ties with Iran and has resisted U.S. pressure for sanctions to press Tehran to abandon its nuclear program. Chinese officials say the country is entitled to energy trade.

Unipec, the trading arm of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., or Sinopec, plans to load the oil tanker Hongbo with the gasoline Thursday in Singapore, said the brokers, who asked not to be identified further to avoid jeopardizing customer relations.

They said the tanker will likely go directly to Iran.

The gasoline shipment suggests Chinese refiners are moving to fill the void left by European suppliers, who halted sales to Iran earlier this year.

...

Sources Vc Star

[MathBreizh]

C'est bien connu : La nature a horreur du vide !

[geopolis]

Après la "diminution" des livraisons constatées de carburant pour la consommation intérieure, l'Iran stockerait selon des négociants plusieurs millions de barils de brut sur des super tankers.

Les stocks de brut iranien seraient en progression

LONDRES/DUBAI, 15 avril (Reuters) - L'Iran stocke des millions de barils de brut et peine à trouver des acheteurs, disent certains négociants, alors que la perspective de nouvelles sanctions pour condamner la poursuite de son programme d'enrichissement d'uranium se précise peu à peu.
Le second semestre est toutefois propice à une baisse de la demande dans l'hémisphère Nord et le phénomène pourrait être purement conjoncturel. Les raffineries en profitent en général pour procéder à des opérations de maintenance au sortir de l'hiver et diminuent leur production de fioul domestique et de gasoil pour privilégier des carburants plus légers.
Le brut iranien est généralement lourd et riche en soufre, ce qui rend son raffinage plus coûteux et plus complexe.

L'estimation des volumes stockés varie suivant les sources. Selon l'une d'entre elles, 19 superpétroliers dits "Very Large Crude Carrier" (VLCC) et un "Suezmax" seraient désormais dévolus au stockage, alors que 12 VLCC seulement l'étaient fin mars.
Un VLCC a une contenance de deux millions de barils, soit le double d'un Suezmax, navire adapté au canal de Suez.
Interrogé sur le sujet, un représentant des autorités iraniennes a refusé d'évaluer les quantités stockées, mais a confirmé que des navires avaient été affectés à cette tâche. "Il ne s'agit pas de 20 navires, mais certains de nos clients ont du brut à bord de tankers dans le Golfe", a-t-il déclaré.
La croissance des stocks est équivalente à celle de 2008, a observé un autre fonctionnaire, l'imputant à l'augmentation des cours du brut. "Parfois, quand les prix montent, les raffineries attendent pour acheter", a-t-il expliqué, sans dissiper les doutes. "L'une des théories est qu'ils ont du mal à vendre la cargaison", a-t-on commenté de source proche d'un négociant.

RIEN AVANT JUIN

"C'est sans aucun doute dû aux pressions politiques, je ne peux imaginer d'autre raison", dit un autre acteur du marché pétrolier. Rien n'indique toutefois que les sanctions à l'étude au Conseil de sécurité de l'Onu visent les acheteurs de brut iranien.
La Chine, qui reste l'un des premiers clients de Téhéran, a accepté la semaine dernière de s'associer aux discussions sur le projet de résolution qui prévoit d'infliger un quatrième train de sanctions à la République islamique. Deux réunions ont eu lieu depuis au siège des Nations unies.
Le texte à l'étude propose de nouvelles restrictions dans le domaine bancaire et dans le trafic maritime, un embargo total sur les armes, des mesures contre le corps des gardiens de la Révolution et l'interdiction des investissements dans le secteur de l'énergie.
Ce dernier point a suscité l'hostilité de l'ambassadeur chinois Li Baodong lors de la première des deux rencontres, jeudi dernier, a-t-on appris de sources diplomatiques.
Longtemps opposée aux sanctions elle aussi, la Russie y semble désormais plus favorable, mais souhaite un texte moins ferme que le projet en circulation.

"Puisque nous parlons des sanctions dans le secteur de l'énergie, je vais vous donner mon opinion. Je pense que nous avons peu de chances de parvenir à une position consensuelle (...) sur ce sujet", a déclaré cette semaine le président Dmitri Medvedev, devant les caméras d'ABC.
Même si les membres permanents du Conseil de sécurité parvenaient à surmonter leurs divergences, de longues négociations seraient sans doute nécessaires pour convaincre les dix Etats qui y siègent temporairement.
Parmi eux, le Liban, la Turquie et le Brésil ont fait savoir qu'ils s'abstiendraient ou qu'ils voteraient contre un alourdissement des sanctions.

Rien de concret n'est à attendre avant juin, dit-on dans les milieux diplomatiques.

[geopolis]

70 % des importations d'essence de l'Iran proviennent des Émirats Arabes Unis ( de deux ports plus précisément Jebel Al et Fujairah) d'où arrivent les cargos des différents fournisseurs pour être ensuite envoyés dans les différentes raffineries iranienne.

Iran imported over 70% of gasoline needs from UAE last year


Iran imported more than 70% of its gasoline needs from the UAE in the last Iranian calendar year which ended March 20 with India and Turkmenistan the other two key suppliers to the Iranian market, student news agency ISNA reported Monday.
The agency did not specify who the suppliers were or whether the shipments from the UAE were the result of trans-shipment of cargoes through its ports by third parties.
The agency said that imports of gasoline from the UAE totaled 5,625,614,112 kg of gasoline, which converts roughly into about 110,000 b/d, worth $3.32 billion. This adds up to 72.12% of the total gasoline imports in terms of weight in the last year, and 72.52% in terms of value, it said.

Some 740,042,370 kg of gasoline, roughly 15,000 b/d, worth $393.3 million were imported from India, accounting for 9.49% of total imports in terms of weight and 8.59% in terms of value, it added.
Turkmenistan exported 329,764,092 kg of gasoline, roughly 6,500 b/d, to Iran in the same period, which was worth $222.98 million. This represented 4.23% of the imports by weight and 4.87% in terms of value.
Although Iran is a major oil producer and OPEC's second exporter of crude oil after Saudi Arabia, Iranian refineries cannot produce enough gasoline to meet domestic demand, which is high as a result of subsidies at the retail level and an aging car fleet. Iranian refineries produce more than 40 million liters a day of gasoline and its domestic consumption last year topped 65 million liters/day.
To make up the shortfall, Iran is forced to import up to 40% of its refined oil product needs, mainly of gasoline and diesel.

Traders in the region say that some shipments of gasoline to Iran are processed through the UAE's ports, mainly Jebel Ali in Dubai and Fujairah, a major bunkering center, though the volumes and sellers are not known.
Iran's gasoline imports in 2009 averaged 130,000 b/d, according to the US Energy Information Administration, statistics arm of the US Department of Energy.

J'ai fait une petite liste des pays fournisseurs d'essence a l'Iran :

-Chine .......................(environ 50 000 b/j)
-Vénézuela..................(environ 20 000 b/j)
-Malaisie.....................(environ 16 000 b/j) Petronas a stoppé depuis la mi-mars ses livraisons
-Inde.........................(environ 15 000 b/j)
-Turménistan..............(environ 6 500 b/j)

Ces cinq pays représentent environ 80 % des importations iranienne, Total est également un fournisseur, le russe Loukoil a annoncé l'arrêt de ses livraisons (entre 8500 et 15 000 b/j).

[energy_isere]

Les Iraniens continuent à vouloir construire des raffineries pour éviter l' importation de produits raffinés.

Et aussi le gouvernement étudie une loi pour réduire les subventions à l' achat de carburant, en vue de faire baisser la demande.

TEHRAN: Iran hopes to become self-sufficient in gasoline within three years, as policies to suppress demand and increase refining will finally free it from a precarious reliance on imports, a minister said on Friday.

TEHRAN: Iran hopes to become self-sufficient in gasoline within three years, as policies to suppress demand and increase refining will finally free it from a precarious reliance on imports, a minister said on Friday.

Due to a chronic lack of refining capacity, the world’s fifth-largest crude exporter has to import at least 30 percent of its gasoline needs – making it vulnerable to any future sanctions that could interrupt that vital inflow.

“We said by the end of the [Iranian] year 1391 [March 2013] hopefully Iran will become self-sufficient in all oil products,” deputy oil minister, Shahnazi Zadeh, told a news conference at an energy trade fair in Tehran.

Zadeh said in 2009-10, Iran produced 44.6 million liters of gasoline every day but consumed 64.9 million liters, the difference being made up by imports. Domestic gasoline production will rise this year to 45.6 million liters a day, Zadeh said. So to become self-sufficient, Iran would still need a huge further increase in refining.

Iran plans to issue bonds worth $1 billion to help fund the required investments, he told reporters.
Mehdi Varzi, a London-based energy consultant, said Iran could become self-sufficient in three years if it manages to both add gasoline production capacity and raise domestic prices.

He said planned refinery projects were all behind schedule, partly because of sanctions.

“It is possible. It depends on how quickly they can bring one of the many planned refineries on stream … they could become self-sufficient in gasoline provided they also cut subsidies,” Varzi said.

A controversial policy to slash subsidies which currently mean Iranian motorists have access to greatly discounted fuel prices, would limit any growth in demand, Zadeh said.

“We predict that this year the daily consumption will be 68 million liters of gasoline [per day], but if we implement the subsidy law this will be reduced to 65 million,” he said.

A controversial policy to slash subsidies which currently mean Iranian motorists have access to greatly discounted fuel prices, would limit any growth in demand, Zadeh said.

“We predict that this year the daily consumption will be 68 million liters of gasoline [per day], but if we implement the subsidy law this will be reduced to 65 million,” he said.

The US is pushing for a fourth round of UN sanctions on Iran over its nuclear work, which is unlikely to directly impact on gasoline imports. – Reuters

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp ... z0lzvpADYI

[energy_isere]

Iran : les Pasdaran affirment pouvoir remplacer Shell ou Total

Les Gardiens de la Révolution ont la capacité de remplacer les compagnies comme Shell ou Total sur les grands projets pétroliers ou gaziers en Iran, a affirmé samedi un haut responsable des Pasdaran en estimant que de nouvelles sanctions seraient sans effet sur eux.

AFP le 24/04/2010

[MathBreizh]

L'espoir fait vivre...

[energy_isere]

Ils insistent !

10 mds USD de contrats gaziers et pétroliers pour les Gardiens de la révolution

AFP le 25/05/2010

Le ministère iranien du Pétrole négocie actuellement avec la branche économique des Gardiens de la révolution, Khatam al-Anbiya, quelque 10 milliards de dollars de projets gaziers et pétroliers, a indiqué mardi le quotidien économique Donyaye-Eghtesadi.

[energy_isere]

Le Tehrantimes s' ennorgeuillit que l' Iran maitrise maintenant une technique de forage pétrolier qui n' était auparavant que utilisable via la technologie des compagnies occidentale.

ici :

http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=220301

Iranian engineers have domestically carried out a major standard oil and natural gas excavation technique which was formerly employed only by Western countries.

Director of the National Iranian Drilling Company Heidar Bahmani announced on Thursday that oil well perforations via percussion drilling were successfully conducted at an oil well near Iran’s western city of Dehloran.
...........

[energy_isere]

Un puit de pétrole en feu en Iran.

3 morts et 10 blessés.
Ils pensent en avoir pour 2 à 4 semaines pour éteindre l' incendie.

Iran oil rig fire may blaze for one month -report

(Reuters) - A fire blazing at an Iranian oil rig may take up to one month to extinguish, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported on Sunday.

Three oil workers were killed and at least 10 injured when the fire broke out at well number 24 at the Naft Shahr oil field early on Saturday.

"Extinguishing the fire will take from two weeks to a month," Shahpour Etesami, an official at the Western Oil and Gas Co. told Mehr.

Oil officials blamed the fire on a structural fault inside the rig. Naft Shahr is the only active oil field in Kermanshah province, bordering Iraq, with estimated oil reserves of 692 million barrels.

The fire poses no risk to Iran's oil exports.

http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-48912520100530

[energy_isere]

L' Iran commande 6 tankers de LNG à la Chine.
Cout unitaire de 200-220 millions de $.

La Chine fait aussi un prét de 1 milliard d' Euro à l' Iran.

Iran Orders Chinese LNG Tankers

31 May 2010 Iran Daily

Iran has ordered six tankers from China to transport the liquefied natural gas (LNG) it hopes to export from its giant gas reserves.

The order--worth $200 million to 220 million per ship--is a sign that China's economic relations with Iran remain fairly good, Presstv wrote on Sunday.

Mohammad Souri, managing director of the National Iranian Tanker Company, said Iran usually bought South Korean ships but had judged the Chinese offer better value for money.

Unlike Qatar, its neighbor across the Persian Gulf with which it shares the vast South Pars gas field, Iran does not yet produce LNG.

The development of Iran's gas industry has been hampered by years of sanctions which have deterred foreign investors.

In a sign of China's growing importance in the OPEC member's energy industry, last year the China National Petroleum Corporation clinched a $4.7 billion deal to develop phase 11 of South Pars, replacing France's Total.

It is also in talks about developing Iran's LNG industry.

As China's economy has boomed in recent years, it has offered loans or investments, to strengthen ties with mineral-rich countries around the world, including Iran, its third-largest crude oil supplier.

China has said new sanctions against Iran, to be discussed by the UNUN Security Council, must not hurt "normal trade".

"The purpose of sanctions is to bring the Iranian side to the negotiating table," China's UNUN Ambassador Li Baodong said shortly after Beijing gave its backing to a draft which the United States and Europe had been pushing for months.

"The sanctions are not for punishing innocent people and should not harm normal trade."

€1 Billion Loan
In another sign of cordial relations, a Tehran city council official said on Sunday that China has granted a loan of €1 billion ($1.2 billion) to fund projects in Tehran.

Fars News Agency, quoting a senior official from Tehran municipality, said the loan would have a repayment period of three to four years.

"The one-billion-euro Chinese funding is materializing," Hossein Mohammad Pourzarandi said, adding that the loan would be used for several construction projects, including road networks, undertaken by the municipality.

In recent years China has emerged as Iran's main trading partner, with increased exposures in key economic sectors of the Islamic republic, including oil.

Several Western energy companies have left Iran amid the increasing possibility of a new round of UNUN sanctions against Tehran over its nuclear program.

They are being replaced mainly by Chinese and Iranian firms.

http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZAWYA ... %20Tankers

Il est bien possible que le prét soit libellé en €. (On sait que l' Iran ne veut plus vendre son pétrole en $).