BBC : Attention au déclin pétrolier

[energy_isere]

Article sur le Peak Oil dans la BBC d' aprés l' analyse d' un rappport du "UK Energy Research Council "

Warning over global oil 'decline'
There is a "significant risk" that global production of conventional oil could "peak" and decline by 2020, a report has warned

By Sarah Mukherjee
Environment correspondent, BBC News

The UK Energy Research Council study says there is a consensus that the era of cheap oil is at an end.

But it warns that most governments, including the UK's, exhibit little concern about oil depletion.

The report's authors also state that the 10 largest oil producing fields in the world are all in decline.

Reliable gauge

As this report points out, the debate about peak oil is a polarised one.

On one side, there are those who say that global supplies have already reached their zenith, and we are unprepared for the crisis that will hit world economies in the years to come.

On the other, there are oil companies and many energy analysts who dismiss the notion that supplies are running out.

The report's authors admit it is hard to tell who is right, as the world lacks a reliable gauge with which to measure oil depletion.

Problems are created by "inconsistent definitions", it says, noting the "paucity of reliable data, the frequent absence of third-party auditing of that data and the corresponding uncertainty surrounding the data that is available".

It goes on: "The difficulties are greatest where they matter most, namely the oil reserves of Opec countries.

"But they also apply at a much more basic level, such as uncertainties over the amount of oil produced by a given country in a given year.

"The resulting confusion both fuels the peak oil debate and creates substantial risk in relying on any particular set of numbers."

Part of the difficulty in estimating the amount of oil left is that those with the reserves are often unwilling to divulge what can be commercially very sensitive information.

Countries and companies are notoriously reticent about their oil reserves.

But the report suggests the easy oil has already been found, and new reserves will become increasingly difficult and expensive to extract, and will not make up for the current major oil fields as they decline.

It says: "More than two-thirds of current crude oil production capacity may need to be replaced by 2030, simply to keep production constant.

"At best, this is likely to prove extremely challenging."

More attention urged

This report does not contain new research, but is a review of data already available.

But the authors say the risk presented by global oil depletion deserves much more serious attention by the research and policy communities.

"Much existing research focuses upon the economic and political threats to oil supply security and fails to either assess or to effectively integrate the risks presented by physical depletion," they argue.

"This has meant that the probability and consequences of different outcomes has not been adequately assessed."

Despite the evidence, the report notes with some surprise that the UK government rarely mentions the issue in official publications.

source : http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8296096.stm

Curieux qu' un tel article ne parte pas pour commencer de l' illustration de ce qu' est un pic et une déplétion avec les champs Britannique de la mer du Nord. (qui est en déclin depuis 2000).

[energy_isere]

ASPO USA a bien sur vu l' article de BBC. http://www.peakoil.net/headline-news/wa ... il-decline

ils donnent le lien pour aller à ce "UK Energy Research Council "

ici : http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-ind ... +Depletion
cette page pointe sur le sujet.

le rapport complet peut etre chargé, et un rapport condensé de 6 page également : http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-dow ... fileId=293

mais ukerc se mouille pas trop peak oil entre 2009 et 2031.
page 5 :

For a wide range of assumptions
about the global URR of conventional oil and the shape of the future production cycle,
the date of peak production can be estimated to lie between 2009 and 2031. Although
this range appears wide in the light of forecasts of an imminent peak, it may be a
relatively narrow window in terms of the lead time to develop substitute fuels.

et page 6 :peak oil certainement avant 2030 avec un risque que ce soit avant 2020.

On the basis of current
evidence we suggest that a peak of conventional oil production before 2030 appears
likely and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020. Given the lead times required
to both develop substitute fuels and improve energy efficiency, this risk needs to be
given serious consideration.

[energy_isere]

Energy bulletin a vu aussi.

voir ici : http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50329

[Superus]

Pas de panique, la banque mondiale dit bien que les réserves restent de façon incroyable à 40 ans de consommation

[Birdy]

Une crise pétrolière s'annonce au Royaume-Uni (Dépêche Belga)

http://www.lalibre.be/economie/actualit ... e-uni.html

Selon l'étude, la récession a toutefois retardé de deux ans cette échéance.

Le Royaume-Uni doit se mobiliser d'urgence pour faire face d'ici à 2015 à des pénuries de pétrole et à une flambée des prix, ont averti mercredi plusieurs industriels britanniques, dont le patron de Virgin Richard Branson. Le Groupement des industries sur le pic pétrolier et la sécurité énergétique (Industry taskforce on peak oil & energy security, ITPOES) rassemble plusieurs industriels britanniques "inquiets que la sécurité énergétique ne reçoive pas l'attention qu'elle mérite". Parmi eux figure Richard Branson, une des figures les plus charismatiques du patronat britannique.

Dans son deuxième rapport présenté mercredi, le groupement a appelé le gouvernement, les entreprises et les consommateurs à se mobiliser ensemble pour faire face à une stagnation de la production mondiale de pétrole, qu'il situe en 2015. A compter de cette date, la production mondiale de pétrole devrait plafonner autour de 95 millions de barils par jour (mbj). Selon l'étude, la récession a toutefois retardé de deux ans cette échéance, ce qui donne "un temps précieux pour planifier un avenir où s'annoncent une augmentation structurelle des prix du pétrole, couplée à des pénuries et à de fortes variations des cours" du brut. "Nous devons nous assurer que le gouvernement prend des mesures pour prévenir l'impact de la crise pétrolière et il doit s'assurer que le Royaume-Uni est mieux préparé à affronter des prix plus volatils et plus élevés", a affirmé Richard Branson.

[energy_isere]

Une crise pétrolière s'annonce au Royaume-Uni (Dépêche Belga) .....

ca circule un peu partout depuis 24 h. et déja 2 fois sur ce méme forum. :

ici : viewtopic.php?p=266261#p266261 posté par Navidad
et ici : viewtopic.php?p=266258#p266258 pposté par pragmatic

....A compter de cette date, la production mondiale de pétrole devrait plafonner autour de 95 millions de barils par jour (mbj)...

Hé Hé , c' est le chiffre suggéré par F De Margerie, PDG de Total

[Glycogène]

Hé hé, s'ils savaient que ça ne dépassera pas 90Mb/j (voire 87)...

[energy_isere]

Je reviens sur la news provoquée par le communiqué de presse du Industry taskforce on peak oil & energy security.

Il y a un article fourni dans Energy Bulletin ici : http://www.energybulletin.net/node/51516

The release of the Industry Taskforce Report on Peak Oil and Energy Security

la page du site du taskforce on peak oil & energy security est ici : .

http://peakoiltaskforce.net/download-th ... il-report/

London, 10 February, 2010:
A group of leading business people today call for urgent action to prepare the UK for Peak Oil. The second report of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) finds that oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility will destabilise economic, political and social activity potentially by 2015. Peak Oil refers to the point where the highest practicable rate of global oil production has been achieved and from which future levels of production will either plateau, or begin to diminish. This means an end to the era of cheap oil.

The report, “The Oil Crunch - a wake-up call for the UK economy”, urges the formation of a coalition of government, business and consumers to address the issue.

The Taskforce states the impact of Peak Oil will include sharp increases in the cost of travel, food, heating and retail goods. It finds that the transport sector will be particularly hard hit, with more vulnerable members of society the first to feel the impact. The Taskforce warns that the UK must not be caught out by the oil crunch in the same way it was with the credit crunch and states that policies to address Peak Oil must be a priority for the new government formed after the election.

..............

ou on peut obtenir gratuitement le fichier pdf du rapport (60 pages) :
http://peakoiltaskforce.net/wp-content/ ... b20101.pdf

The Oil Crunch
A wake-up call for the UK economy
Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil & Energy Security

Second report of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil & Energy Security (ITPOES)
February 2010

Ils avaient fait un premier rapport en 2008, également disponible en télechargement.

[energy_isere]

Je reviens une fois de plus sur la news provoquée par le communiqué de presse du Industry taskforce on peak oil & energy security.

Energy bulletin remarque un article du Guardian de hier ou le ministre de l' energie va examiner la question sans la balayer du revers de la main.

UK Summit to Discuss Peak Oil

According to a report in The Guardian newspaper yesterday, Lord Hunt, the UK’s energy minister, will meet with industrialists in London today in an effort “to calm mounting fears about the disruption that could follow a sudden shortage of oil supplies.”

The Guardian wrote that the decision to hold the talks came after the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security issued its second report, The Oil Crunch: a Wake-up Call for the UK Economy, in which it warned of the dangers of complacency in the face of world oil peaking.
Compared to the UK government’s somewhat predictable “it’s not an issue” response to the task force’s first report, the agreement to meet today represents a significant policy shift. Apparently the Energy Ministry has agreed to conduct a serious study to determine whether the UK needs to take concerted action to avoid the worst dislocations that could result from the peaking of world oil production.

Jeremy Leggett, a catalyst for the task force as well as executive chairman

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/52063