Un résumé :
World Energy Outlook 2017 released - Oil continues to plentiful?
In the media shadow of last Friday's World Climate Change Conference,
the International Energy Agency published this year's World Energy
Outlook - with a presentation in London on November 14. and in Berlin on
November 17.
The presentation by Executive Director Fatih Birol and the summary
published on the Internet assume that the continuation of 'business as
usual' will continue undisturbed with regard to oil. However, an
analysis of the statements in the (chargeable) overall report suggest a
different interpretation.
Since 2011, the IEA's annual reports have only included tabular
descriptions of the future availability of the most important fossil
fuel: crude oil. In addition, the information is now spread over two to
three tables.
The main findings of the World Energy Outlook 2017 with regard to oil:
*
Oil production from existing oil fields in the New Policies scenario
will decline by 65 % until 2040.
*
Unconventional oil production (shale oil) cannot stop this decline.
*
35 % of the demand will have to be met by additional fields until
2040. These fields are yet-to-be found or yet-to-be-developed.
*
From a realistic point of view, global oil production will
therefore almost halve by 2040.
*
This would be good news for climate change.
The interrelationships are not quite clear from the tables published by
the International Energy Agency. ASPO Germany (Association for the Study
of Peak Oil and Gas) has therefore created a graphical analysis which
can be downloaded at: www.energiekrise.de
