[Chiffres] Surveillons les prédictions de l'EIA (agence US)

[GillesH38]

mé mé mé et le pic de la demande alors ??

[tita]

Dans le dernier STEO, la production/consommation mondiale est quasi à l'équilibre en janvier à 99 Mb/j. Habituellement, néanmoins, le mois de janvier a un niveau de consommation faible. Mais janvier 2022 est un record, et va probablement donner le ton sur le reste de l'année... En gros, on est retourné aux niveaux de consommation pré-pandémique.

Reste à voir si la production va réussir à suivre. L'EIA semble le prédire avec une augmentation des stocks pétroliers assez importante sur l'année 2022, et un retour à une production en-dessus de 100 Mb/j dès avril, et une moyenne de 101.38 Mb/j sur 2022, dépassant le pic de 2018 à 100.43 Mb/j.

Ah oui, selon le STEO, le pic de production global n'est pas en 2019 mais en 2018. La production avait légèrement diminué en 2019 à 100.25 Mb/j. Une pichenette.

L'année 2022 va être intéressante à observer. L'EIA s'attend à une croissance de la production boostée par les prix élevés du pétrole.

Tiens, j'avais pas trop fait de suivi sur la production/consommation mondiale. Petit récap:

2018: 100.43/99.7 (production/consommation en Mb/j)
2019: 100.25/100.26
2020: 93.8/91.86 (Confinement)
2021: 95.67/97.12 (remontée)
2022: 99.98/99.16 (plus de confinement)
2023: 101.75/101.01

En décembre 2023, la consommation a atteint 103 Mb/j. Sur 2023, la production et la consommation mondiale ont atteint de nouveaux records.

Pour 2024, l'EIA prévoit une production mondiale à 102.3 Mb/j en moyenne, et une consommation mondiale à 102.43 Mb/j. Une augmentation importante de la consommation (+1.32 Mb/j). Une légère différence (0.13 Mb/j) devrait amener les prix vers le haut.

Et y'a un truc assez surprenant... En 2018, l'OPEP produisait énormément, en moyenne 36.7 Mb/j. En 2023, l'OPEP a produit en moyenne 32.2 Mb/j, soit 4.5 Mb/j en moins. Dans le même temps, les USA produisent 4 Mb/j en plus...

[GillesH38]

c'est curieux, cette manie qu'ont certains pays de baisser leur production alors que la demande croît et que les prix restent élevés, alors que d'autres bien sûr ne se gênent pas pour vendre plus , non ?

[mobar]

Probablement qu'ils préparent l'avenir et considèrent qu'ils ont déjà trop de pognon!

[energy_isere]

EIA Slightly Lowers 2024 USA Crude Oil Output Forecast

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone Staff | May 28, 2024

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) slightly lowered its 2024 U.S. crude oil production forecast.

The EIA now sees the country’s crude oil output averaging 13.20 million barrels per day this year. In its previous STEO, which was released in April, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production would average 13.21 million barrels per day. Both STEOs peg 2023 U.S. crude oil output at 12.93 million barrels per day.

According to its latest STEO, the EIA is projecting that, in 2024, Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), will produce 10.99 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of Mexico will produce 1.81 million barrels per day, and Alaska will produce 0.41 million barrels per day.
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https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/eia_s ... 3-article/

[alain2908]

une telle modification méritait bien un article dans rigzone

[tita]

Petit récap en milieu d'année sur les prédictions de l'EIA.

Monde:
2024 Production/Consommation tout liquide: 102.57 Mb/j / 102.99 Mb/j
2025 Production/Consommation tout liquide: 104.72 Mb/j / 104.52 Mb/j

USA:
Production pétrole 2024: 13.24 Mb/j (13.55 Mb/j en décembre 2024)
Production pétrole 2025: 13.7 Mb/j (13.92 Mb/j en décembre 2025)

L'EIA s'attend à une augmentation de la consommation plutôt importante (+1 Mb/j en 2024, +1.53Mb/j en 2025), ainsi qu'une production mondiale qui suivrait. Côté US, elle s'attend à un ralentissement en 2024 (+310 kb/j), et une hausse un peu plus marquée en 2025 (460kb/j).

Je vais essayer de comparer ces chiffres avec ceux qu'on aura dans 6 mois, en décembre.

[energy_isere]

In its latest short term energy outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its U.S. crude oil production forecast for 2024.

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone Staff | Friday, June 21, 2024

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its U.S. crude oil production forecast for 2024.

The EIA now sees total U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, averaging 13.24 million barrels per day this year. In its previous May STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil output would average 13.20 million barrels per day.

Of the 13.24 million barrel per day production figure in the EIA’s June STEO, Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, take the largest share, with 11.02 million barrels per day, the STEO showed. The Permian region dominates Lower 48 states production, with 6.31 million barrels per day, followed by the Bakken region, with 1.30 million barrels per day, and the Eagle Ford region, with 1.08 million barrels per day, the STEO outlined.

The Appalachia region is forecast to produce 0.16 million barrels per day this year and the Haynesville region is forecast to produce 0.03 million barrels per day this year, the STEO revealed. The rest of the Lower 48 states are projected to produce 2.14 million barrels per day, according to the STEO, which pointed out that regional production is based on geographic regions and not geologic formations.

The Federal Gulf of Mexico is anticipated to produce 1.81 million barrels per day in 2024 and Alaska is forecast to produce 0.41 million barrels per day this year, the report outlined.

Total U.S. crude oil production is anticipated to average 13.17 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.33 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.50 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, according to the report.
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https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_increa ... 5-article/

[energy_isere]

EIA: Led By Permian, US Oil Output to Grow by 500K B/D in 2025
Rig counts are down since 2023, but well productivity is marching forward.

August 22, 2024 By Trent Jacobs

The US is on track to produce an average of 13.7 million B/D of crude oil in 2025—an increase of approximately 500,000 B/D over this year’s projected average.

The forecast comes from the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short-term energy outlook report.

The report highlights that the growth in productivity is expected despite the ongoing decline in the number of active drilling rigs across the US.

This is largely because the engine of US growth, the prolific Permian Basin shared between Texas and New Mexico, continues to power ahead.

The Permian is home to nearly double the number of rigs in operation compared to the rest of the Lower 48 states combined—313 rigs in the Permian vs. 165 elsewhere, according to the EIA. At the beginning of 2023, those numbers stood at 352 and 242 , respectively.

EIA data also show that as of July new Permian wells were generating a combined 433,000 B/D in their first month of production, which was more than enough to offset declines from older wells.

Natural gas production is following a similar trend, with new wells in the region yielding 780,000 MMscf/D in their first month.

“Growing well productivity suggests that operators in the Permian are successfully implementing more advanced drilling and completion techniques, including longer lateral lengths, optimized well spacing, and enhanced fracturing designs,” the EIA concluded.

The EIA forecasts a 430,000 B/D increase in Permian oil production from 2023 levels, reaching 6.3 million B/D by the end of this year. With further productivity gains anticipated, Permian output could slow but is still expected to rise by another 300,000 B/D in 2025.
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The projections are mixed for the other two major oil basins in the US.

The Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas should see production decline from 1.16 million B/D in 2023 to 1.1 million B/D in 2024, a 5% decrease. However, the trend may reverse in 2025 as the EIA forecasts a 4.5% increase to 1.15 million B/D.

North Dakota’s Bakken Shale is already on the rebound with oil production increasing almost 5% from 2023 to an average of 1.28 million B/D in 2024. That figure may grow another 3% next year to 1.32 million B/D.

The EIA also expects the Federal Gulf of Mexico to see a mixed trend, with production shrinking by 3.7% from 1.87 million B/D in 2023 to 1.8 million B/D in 2024. A recovery of 2.8% to 1.85 million B/D is forecast in 2025.

https://jpt.spe.org/eia-led-by-permian- ... -d-in-2025

[energy_isere]

India is Leading Source of Oil Demand Growth in EIA Forecast

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone Staff | Friday, November 22, 2024

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said India has emerged as the leading source of growth in global oil consumption in its forecast.

“Over 2024 and 2025, India accounts for 25 percent of total oil consumption growth globally,” the EIA noted in its November STEO.

The organization highlighted in the STEO that it expects consumption of liquid fuels in India to increase by 0.3 million barrels per day both this year and next year, “driven by rising demand for transportation fuels”.

“We expect an increase of 1.0 million barrels per day in global consumption of liquid fuels in 2024,” the EIA revealed in its November STEO.

“We expect even more growth next year, with global oil consumption rising by 1.2 million barrels per day,” it added.

The EIA pointed out in its STEO that non-OECD countries drive almost all global oil consumption growth in its forecast, noting that much of this growth is in Asia.

The organization projected that China’s petroleum and liquid fuels consumption will grow by less than 0.1 million barrels per day in 2024 “before recovering to almost 0.3 million barrels per day 2025”.

“We have revised China’s 2024 consumption downward several times over the past year,” the EIA highlighted in the STEO.

“In China, rapidly expanding electric vehicle ownership, rising use of liquefied natural gas for trucking goods, and decelerating economic growth have limited consumption growth for transportation fuels,” it added.
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https://www.rigzone.com/news/india_is_l ... 3-article/

[tita]

Petit récap en milieu d'année sur les prédictions de l'EIA.

Monde:
2024 Production/Consommation tout liquide: 102.57 Mb/j / 102.99 Mb/j
2025 Production/Consommation tout liquide: 104.72 Mb/j / 104.52 Mb/j

USA:
Production pétrole 2024: 13.24 Mb/j (13.55 Mb/j en décembre 2024)
Production pétrole 2025: 13.7 Mb/j (13.92 Mb/j en décembre 2025)

L'EIA s'attend à une augmentation de la consommation plutôt importante (+1 Mb/j en 2024, +1.53Mb/j en 2025), ainsi qu'une production mondiale qui suivrait. Côté US, elle s'attend à un ralentissement en 2024 (+310 kb/j), et une hausse un peu plus marquée en 2025 (460kb/j).

Je vais essayer de comparer ces chiffres avec ceux qu'on aura dans 6 mois, en décembre.

Monde:
2024 Production/Consommation tout liquide: 102.52 Mb/j / 102.86 Mb/j
2025 Production/Consommation tout liquide: 104.18 Mb/j / 104.48 Mb/j

USA:
Production pétrole 2024: 13.24 Mb/j (13.62 Mb/j en décembre 2024)
Production pétrole 2025: 13.52 Mb/j (13.63 Mb/j en décembre 2025)

Au niveau mondiale, la production est très légèrement plus faible que prévue en 2024 (-50 kb/j), tandis que la consommation est un peu plus faible (-130 kb/j). Pour 2025, il y a toujours une augmentation plutôt forte qui est anticipée (+1.66 Mb/j de production, +1.62 Mb/j de consommation).

Pour les USA, la production de pétrole va pas beaucoup augmenter en 2025. La hausse serait partagée entre les USA (+470 kb/j), le Canada (+430 kb/j), l'Amérique du Sud (+320 kb/j, Brésil et Guyana), la Norvège (+126 kb/j) et l'Afrique (+185 kb/j).

Notez qu'on parle de production tous liquides, ce qui implique le gaz liquide et biocarburants, d'où la différence pour les USA.

Si je reprends ma liste de Production/Consommation mondiale depuis 2018:

2018: 100.43/99.7 (production/consommation en Mb/j)
2019: 100.25/100.26
2020: 93.85/91.7 (Confinement)
2021: 95.68/97.53 (remontée)
2022: 100.17/100.05 (plus de confinement)
2023: 102.02/102.15
2024: 102.52/102.86
2025: 104.18/104.48

[GillesH38]

on est quand meme à + 2% en 6 ans donc à 0,3% par an, bien inférieur à la croissance démographique (donc la production par habitant baisse).

[alain2908]

et si les prévisions s'annoncent juste,
ça donnera 3,7 % en 7 ans contre 6,5 % pour la population.

[GillesH38]

oui, si .... mais c'est comme les chiffres du RC, je préfère largement raisonner sur les chiffres constatés que sur les prédictions.

[energy_isere]

US Oil Production to Peak in 2027, Natural Gas by 2032: EIA
By Andrew Topf - Apr 16, 2025,

> Despite doubling per well output since 2019, the Permian’s rig rate gains are slowing and decline curves are steepening, meaning producers must “run faster to stay in place,”

> EIA: The U.S. is forecast to hit a 14 million bpd oil peak in 2027.

> EIA: natural gas to peak at 119 BCFD in 2032

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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/U ... 2-EIA.html