L'Australie en déplétion

[GillesH38]

Des nouvelles de l'Australie, dont on n'a pas beaucoup parlé sur le forum. C'est quand même une puissance à vocation régionale dans le Sud-est asiatique, plus ou moins en concurrence politique avec le Japon. Je ne savais pas, mais c'est un producteur non négligeable de pétrole, qui couvrait une part importante de ses besoins. Sa production a piqué en 2000 d'après l'EIA. Un article récent (reporté sur 123energy) s'inquiète du taux de dépletion observé et de l'impact sur la facture pétrolière : d'après les chiffres, la production a chuté de 10 % l'année dernière. En 2015, elle ne produira que 1/3 de sa consommation contre 80-90 % dans la décennie précédente.

Comme la Mer du Nord, cela confirme que les techniques modernes d'extraction sont impuissantes à enrayer une chute de production importante, et peut etre meme la provoquent en reculant la date du pic.

[energy_isere]

L' Australie a été traité dans le bulletin ASPO n°28, ca commence à dater. (ca devais étre en 2002).

[energy_isere]

A l' ASPO on donne le pic oil pour 2010.

Dans l'article suivant qui vient d' Australie, méme date.

2010, c'est dans 1500 jours.

A 1000 jours on fait un compteà rebours ?

Oil crisis by 2010

WORLD oil production will peak in just 1500 days. After that, oil shortages will force massive changes to our lifestyle and business, experts have predicted.

Higher petrol taxes to deter people buying as much, strict petrol rationing and Adelaide production of small fuel-frugal cars were urged yesterday by an Australian group concerned with "peak oil".

That is when world oil production peaks. After that, shortages will occur.

Visiting Adelaide, Chris Skrebowski, a trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre and editor of the Energy Institute's Petroleum Review in Britain, said "peak oil" was real and imminent.

"Peak oil is when flows can't meet the required demand," he said. "This will cause an economic tsunami." Mr Skrebowski, addressing a Committee for Economic Development of Australia gathering, said that of the world's 18 largest oil fields, 12 were in production decline.

Few large discoveries were being made, with the prediction of even less new oil in coming years.

"Oil supply will peak in 2010-11 at around 92 to 94 million barrels a day," he said. "We have just 1500 days to peak. Collectively, we are still in denial."

Bruce Robinson, convener of the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil, said petrol rationing would help make supplies last as long as possible.

Biofuels would mitigate the oil shortage problem but were not the main solution. Hydrogen fuel-cell cars also were not the answer.

"South Australia could lead the way," he said. "There's a golden opportunity for SA's car industry to make an AusCar, a modern version of the 'people's car' Volkswagen.

"Not something with a 3.8-litre V6 engine but something small, lightweight and fuel-efficient."

source : http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/stor ... 01,00.html