Tight Oil USA

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Re: Tight Oil USA

Message par alain2908 » 21 févr. 2022, 10:45

CP3 a écrit :
20 févr. 2022, 11:24
Goulot d' étranglement pour la fourniture de sable de qualité fracturation hydraulique .

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-02-15/
Ça va pas améliorer les problèmes d'inflation...

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Re: Tight Oil USA

Message par energy_isere » 15 mars 2022, 09:40

Production en hausse prévue en Avril pour le shale oil
EIA: U.S. Shale Production Set For Big Jump In April

By Julianne Geiger - Mar 14, 2022

U.S. shale oil production in the seven most prolific shale basins are set for their biggest rise since March of 2020, according to new EIA data.

The Energy Information’s Drilling Productivity Report is estimating that the total production in the seven major U.S. shale basins will rise by 117,000 bpd next month, to 8.708 million bpd, according to the EIA’s latest version of the Drilling Productivity Report. The news comes as U.S. crude oil production finds itself in the spotlight as to the reasons they are not producing more.

.............
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... April.html

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Re: Tight Oil USA

Message par energy_isere » 15 avr. 2022, 10:01

Grosse activité dans le Permien et augmentation des attributions de permis de forage horizontal :
Permian Could See Production Surge As New Permits Reach All-Time High

By Rystad Energy - Apr 14, 2022

> Permian horizontal well permits reach all-time high in March.
> Operators are shifting gears amid elevated oil prices and robust demand.
> There is a clear indication the industry is moving towards a new elevated permit rate.

Horizontal drilling permits for new wells in the Permian Basin hit an all-time high in March, with 904 total permit awards, driven by elevated oil prices and production demand, Rystad Energy research shows. Weekly approved permits have hovered between 188 and 227 since March 7, 2022, an unprecedented period of high activity that pushed the four-week average to 210 for the week ending April 3, a record for horizontal permit approvals in the core US shale patch over four weeks.

“This is a clear signal that operators in the basin are kicking into high gear on their development plans, positioning for a significant ramp-up of activity level and an acceleration in the speed of output expansion over the next few months once supply chain bottlenecks ease. The surge in permitting activity positions the industry for continuous rig count additions in the second half of 2022 and foreshadows a significant increase in supply capacity from early 2023,” says Artem Abramov, Rystad Energy’s head of shale research.

However, it is advisable to practice caution when using these numbers as a concrete indicator of future drilling plans. Many permits never get drilled, and operators follow diverse permitting strategies – in other words, the time from permit approval to the start of drilling varies substantially across producers in the same basin.
......................
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/P ... -High.html

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Re: Tight Oil USA

Message par tita » 15 avr. 2022, 20:23

Niveau forages pétroliers, les USA sont à ~300 unités (35%) en-dessous de leur niveau de février 2019. Par contre, ils sont en hausse au niveau des forages gaziers (140), largement en-dessus du niveau de janvier 2020.

Pour un point de comparaison, je me demandais quel était le niveau des permis de forages dans le bassin permien début 2018. Sur les 3 premiers mois, c'était 1'978 permis délivrés.

Dans l'article ci-dessus, il y a eu 1'827 permis délivrés.

https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents ... -may-2018/

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Re: Tight Oil USA

Message par energy_isere » 08 mai 2022, 09:16

Chevron to Ramp Up Production at Biggest USA Oil Field

by Bloomberg|Kevin Crowley|Sunday, May 01, 2022

Chevron Corp. lifted its production target in North America’s biggest oil field in a sign that U.S. shale is responding to $100-a-barrel crude despite rising cost pressures and equipment shortages.

Chevron will produce the equivalent of about 725,000 barrels of oil daily in the Permian Basin this year, a 15% increase from 2021, the company said in an investor presentation on Friday. That’s up from the previous plan for a 10% increase in the region.

The second-largest U.S. driller joins Continental Resources Inc., Hess Corp. and Matador Resources Co. in signaling plans to boost shale production amid sky-high crude and gas prices.

“We are seeing some cost increases in the Permian but it’s very manageable,” Chief Financial Officer Pierre Breber said during an interview. Chevron is now “back on the trajectory that we were on pre-Covid” in the biggest U.S. shale basin.

U.S. President Joe Biden implored oil companies to reinvest profits from surging oil prices into more production in an effort to tamp down on rampant inflation. Chevron’s announcement, combined with their smaller peers, show that the industry may be willing to increase supplies, even though there are steep labor and equipment shortages.

.................
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/chevr ... 8-article/

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Re: Tight Oil USA

Message par energy_isere » 14 mai 2022, 10:52

Soaring Costs Set To Hurt U.S. Shale Production

By Editorial Dept - May 13, 2022,

Soaring Production Costs Stoke Fears of US Shale Slowdown

- Just as US shale producers were poised to capitalize on high crude prices and bring new production to the markets, Texas drillers have been confronted with soaring production costs.

- According to Continental and Coterra, drilling and production costs in average shale plays were up by some 20%. It isn't only that rigs and workers are in short supply, the doubling of fracking sand and diesel prices have also added to the inflationary pressure.

- The lead time between order and delivery of steel pipes (used to line the interior of oil wells), drilling equipment, and compressors can now be as long as two years, coming on the back of global supply chain disruptions.

- Market watchers have been caught by surprise by the EIA’s February crude production data, indicating a decline despite expectations to the contrary, with drillers continuing to deplete drilled-but-uncompleted wells (DUCs).
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... ction.html

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Re: Tight Oil USA

Message par energy_isere » 20 mai 2022, 01:27

Grosse fusion annoncée dans le Permien :
U.S. Shale Merger Creates A New $7 Billion Giant

By Tsvetana Paraskova - May 19, 2022

Centennial Resource Development and Colgate Energy Partners III, LLC have agreed to combine in a $7.0-billion merger of equals, creating the largest pure-play exploration and production (E&P) firm in the Delaware Basin in the Permian, the companies said on Thursday.

The combined firm will be the largest pure-play E&P company in the Delaware Basin, with around 180,000 net leasehold acres, 40,000 net royalty acres, and total current production of approximately 135,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d).

The $7.0 billion merger of equals values Colgate at approximately $3.9 billion and is comprised of 269.3 million shares of Centennial stock, $525 million of cash, and the assumption of approximately $1.4 billion of Colgate’s outstanding net debt.

The boards of directors of both companies have unanimously approved the deal, which is expected to close in the second half of this year.

The new firm aims to significantly increase cash returns to shareholders, with over $1 billion of expected free cash flow in 2023 at current strip prices, Centennial and Colgate said.

“We are excited to partner with Colgate as we share a common vision for the pro forma company that includes a strong balance sheet, a disciplined investment program to drive cash flow and a robust return-of-capital program,” said Sean Smith, Chief Executive Officer of Centennial.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... Giant.html

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Re: Tight Oil USA

Message par energy_isere » 27 mai 2022, 10:37

stymied = bloqués
Permian Frackers Blame Supply Chain Bottlenecks For Stymied Growth

By Irina Slav - May 26, 2022 oilprice

> The Permian is expected to be the main driver of U.S. production growth in 2022.

> Supply chain snarls are starting to weigh on Permian production growth.

> Oilfield service companies are struggling after two years of mothballing equipment fleets.



Rising rig counts, record forecast production from the Delaware Basin, and another forecast for record production for the whole Permian from the EIA are just some of the latest news from the star U.S. shale play. And yet this production growth is much slower than it should have been and is likely to remain too slow. What happened?

One reason is shareholders. As Bloomberg noted in a recent report on the state of the Permian, public shale drillers have switched their focus after years of putting everything into production growth and are now prioritizing the return of cash to shareholders. And the switch back appears to be unlikely at this point.

Another reason is rising production costs. International oil prices have been on a strong rise indeed, but so have production costs as the supply chain disruption effects of the last two years linger.

In late April, the Wall Street Journal's Collin Eaton reported that the most prolific shale play in the United States was struggling to find enough steel, frac sand, frac pumps, and workers for wells.

Eaton noted that, unlike the last oil market downturn, the oilfield service industry is not riding on the heels of producers in the recovery. On the contrary, this time, the oilfield service companies are struggling after two years of mothballing equipment fleets because of the sharp contraction in output during the pandemic. They are also being largely shunned by investors, which makes them reluctant to invest in new equipment.

The report quoted industry executives saying that it now took a lot longer between drilling a well and getting it going because of delays in the delivery of essential equipment and materials. The costs of this equipment and materials are also higher.

"It's just more difficult to get some of the key products that we need, whether that's pipe or sand," Travis Thompson, CEO of FireBird Energy, a Midland Basin driller, told Bloomberg. "If we wanted to increase activity, say from three rigs to four or five, we would certainly have to plan on that a lot further out than what you would have had to a year or two back."

"If somebody walked in and put a pile of money on the table and said, 'Drill me a well next week,' it isn't going to happen," Jamie Small, president of private-equity-backed Element Petroleum III, told the WSJ's Eaton in April. "You just can't get the stuff to do it."

Bloomberg reported that the average forecast of five agencies for U.S. oil production growth is some 900,000 bpd. The forecasters include Rystad Energy, BloombergNEF, Enverus, S&P Global, and the Energy Information Administration.

The Permian will account for 80 percent of this growth, which will certainly help it cement its reputation as the star play in the U.S. shale patch. Yet the rate of production growth is quite modest when compared with the rate of oil production growth in 2018, as offered by Bloomberg. In that year, the U.S. added 1.9 million barrels daily.

Rystad Energy on its own, however, forecasts that just the Delaware Basin in the Permian will add some 990,000 bpd to its total production this year, of which more than 400,000 bpd is new production, the Norwegian consultancy said earlier this month. According to it, well economics in the Delaware Basin and high oil prices will motivate the production growth, which will bring the basin's total to a record 5.7 million bpd later this year.

Another record was recently forecast by the Energy Information Administration. The agency said it expected the Permian to add 88,000 bpd in June, reaching a record 5.219 million bpd, accounting for a substantial portion of the overall monthly output increase across the shale patch, which the EIA sees at 142,000 bpd.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/P ... rowth.html

pour rappel, la situation du Delaware Basin qui est l'un des bassins du Permien géographiquement plus vaste

Image
Map showing the boundaries of the Permian Basin region and principal sub-basins.

et le nom Delaware n' a rien à voir avec le nom de l'état du Delaware qui est à plus de 3000 km de la en direction du Nord Est (qui est l'un des plus petits états des USA).

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Re: Tight Oil USA

Message par tita » 26 juin 2022, 14:11

Je n'avais plus visité shaleprofile depuis un moment. Surprise, le site s'est fortement professionnalisé, l'auteur ayant développé des outils d'analyse qu'il vend. Mais son blog reste toujours accessible. Petit tour de différent bassins:

Permien:
https://novilabs.com/blog/permian-updat ... arch-2022/

La croissance fulgurante en 2017-2018 s'était légèrement relâchée en 2019, avant que le covid ne provoque un pic en mars 2020 (4.3 Mb/j) qui sera dépassé en août 2021. La production devrait continuer d'augmenter.

Eagle Ford:
https://novilabs.com/blog/eagle-ford-up ... uary-2022/

Le bassin a peaké en 2015 à 1.6 Mb/j. Actuellement à 1.1 Mb/j, la nouvelle production remplace la déplétion pour maintenir une stabilité. Ce qui donne une allure assez curieuse, loin d'une courbe en cloche. On est plutôt sur un plateau.

Bakken:
https://novilabs.com/blog/north-dakota- ... uary-2022/

La production a peaké en novembre 2019 à 1.5 Mb/j, et non au moment du covid. Là aussi, la production semble stabilisée à 1 Mb/j.

C'est toujours le bassin Permien (Texas, Nouveau-Mexique) qui est le moteur de la croissance de la production US de LTO.

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Re: Tight Oil USA

Message par energy_isere » 08 sept. 2022, 08:33

Pas prêt de participer au net Zero 2050 :-"

Peut étre méme tout l'inverse.
Permian Contributes $153B And 700,000 Jobs To U.S. Economy

by Bojan Lepic|Rigzone Staff|Wednesday, September 07, 2022

The Permian Basin’s economic impact on Texas and the nation is growing. By 2050, the region is expected to contribute up to $260 billion in gross product and more than 1,000,000 jobs to the nation’s economy, according to a new report from The Perryman Group and the Permian Strategic Partnership (PSP).

According to the new report, the Permian is also responsible for $11.8 billion in 2021 Texas tax collections, 508,800 Texas industry jobs, and $1.9 billion in 2022 mineral revenue contributions to the Texas Public University Fund. The Permian will also contribute $3.58 billion to the Texas State Highway Fund in 2023 and $3.58 billion to the Texas Rainy-Day Fund in 2023 – the highest amount ever recorded.

“Over the last century, the Permian Basin has been the lifeblood of our nation – providing vital resources, jobs, and economic opportunities,” said Don Evans, PSP Chairman and Former U.S. Commerce Secretary during the George W. Bush Administration. “The Permian Basin is the largest secure supply of energy in the world. Texas should continue to invest in and expand the infrastructure of the region. This will enhance the ability for the energy industry to provide the energy resources necessary to keep our nation’s economy strong and country secure.”

The Permian Basin is one of the top energy-producing regions in the world, with abundant natural and renewable resources. With 94.5 billion barrels of known recoverable oil and 213.3 trillion cubic feet of known recoverable natural gas, the Permian Basin helps fuel the state and national economies. It’s home to just 1.6 percent of the Texas population but is responsible for 7.8 percent of the state’s private sector GDP.

“The PSP is committed to providing current data about not only the Permian Basin’s impact on the Texas economy but also on the strategic role of our region in an ever-evolving geopolitical landscape,’ said president and CEO of the PSP Tracee Bentley. “Texas leaders have a historic opportunity to invest in the future of our state and country and keep energy abundant by investing in Permian Basin infrastructure.”

While the Permian Basin’s contribution is substantial, there is still room for improvement. An additional $1 billion in investments in Permian Basin Infrastructure could result in 4,500 fewer fatalities and injuries, 1 million few hours in traffic delays, and $1.5 billion in economic benefits from increased safety and fewer delays.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/permian_co ... 0-article/

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Re: Tight Oil USA

Message par energy_isere » 15 oct. 2022, 10:48

U.S. Shale Could Peak In 2024: Energy Aspects

By Julianne Geiger - Oct 14, 2022

U.S. crude oil output from shale basins could peak in 2024, a new note from Energy Aspect’s Amrita Sen cautioned.

The note referenced five crude oil producers in the United States that are considering cutting rigs at the start of the year due to inflation. The news comes as the United States shows signs of desperation for alleviating high gasoline prices at the pump by releasing millions and millions of barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and by attempting—and failing--to strongarm OPEC+ into keeping production steady. Those steps are in lieu of ramping up its crude oil production.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has estimated that U.S. crude oil production in the seven most prolific shale basins will increase by 132,000 bpd from the September levels of 8.983 million bpd, according to the latest Drilling Productivity Report published mid-September. All eyes will be on the EIA’s latest version of the report, which will be released on Monday.

Not so long ago, the United States enjoyed serving as the swing producer in the global oil markets, able to match, step-by-step, OPEC’s production cuts through increases in its own production. But the United States has struggled to boost production this year, after seeing significant declines during the pandemic.

So far this year, the United States has managed to increase its total crude oil production by 200,000 bpd, with the White House moving to release more than a hundred million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to plug the gap left by the United States’ inability to boost production.

Should U.S. shale peak in 2024, it will be in the exact same position that OPEC+ feared getting itself into: a position where it is unable to respond to the needs of the market.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... pects.html

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Re: Tight Oil USA

Message par tita » 16 nov. 2022, 19:15

Pour la première fois depuis juin 2020, le nombre de DUCs (Drilled UnCompleted wells) comptabilisés par l'EIA a légèrement augmenté. Il est passé de 4'400 à 4'408. En juin 2020, c'était 8797.

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Re: Tight Oil USA

Message par energy_isere » 26 nov. 2022, 13:17

The U.S. Shale Boom Is Officially Over

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Nov 24, 2022, oilprice

> The days of the U.S. shale boom may be over, with production rising at a much slower rate than it did before the 2020 crash and showing no signs of ramping up.

> A combination of supply chain constraints, inflation, and the new shareholder-focused strategy of shale companies have transformed how the industry operates.

> With shale production facing headwinds, OPEC has regained its position as the world’s swing producer.

.......................
The EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to average 11.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and 12.4 million bpd in 2023, which would surpass the record high set in 2019, per the November Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Despite the expectation of a record output next year, the EIA has downgraded the numbers several times in 2022 so far. The latest cut is a massive 21% reduction in the growth estimate, according to calculations by Reuters.

In the October forecast, the EIA had already downgraded the average production estimate for 2023 to 12.4 million bpd from the September forecast of 12.6 million bpd.
.......................
lire https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... -Over.html

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Re: Tight Oil USA

Message par energy_isere » 29 janv. 2023, 21:21

Une video de Marathon Oil sur la fracturation hydraulique pour récupérer le shale oil.

How Oil And Gas Is Extracted From Shale 6mn https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UKMNrFMAl4
4 860 vues18 oct. 2017

Image

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Re: Tight Oil USA

Message par tita » 05 févr. 2023, 12:58

tita a écrit :
01 oct. 2020, 15:18
tita a écrit :
11 févr. 2020, 11:01
Chesapeake: $0.5, chute de 98% depuis 2014
Oasis Petroleum: $2.23, chute de 96% depuis 2014.
Whiting Petroleum: $3.67, soit une chute de 99% depuis sont plus haut en 2014
Exxon: Sous les $60, se rapprochant de son plus bas niveau en 2010
Occidental Petroleum: $40.5, là aussi navigant à peu près à plus bas niveau depuis 2008
EOG: $73.7, une chute de 43% depuis octobre 2018
Concho: $77.2, là aussi une chute de 51% depuis octobre 2018
Another one bites the dust! Les 3 opérateur de ma liste qui étaient en situation difficile ont fait une restructuration de type chapter 11
Oasis Petroleum Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

Oasis Petroleum (NYSE:OAS) announced today that it has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The oil company has entered into a restructuring support agreement with the majority of its creditors on a comprehensive "pre-packaged" restructuring plan. This agreement will enable the company to significantly reduce its debt and strengthen its balance sheet.

Oasis' envisioned quick trip through the bankruptcy process by implementing a pre-packaged plan would follow a similar pattern of other oil companies that filed earlier this year. For example, Denbury filed for bankruptcy in late July and completed its process earlier this month. Meanwhile, Whiting Petroleum filed in April and then emerged on Sept. 1.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/ ... ankruptcy/

Je n'avais pas vu que Whiting était sortie de sa procédure de chapter 11.

Une mise à jour des autres et de la baisse de leur capital-action:

Marathon Oil: $4, 90% de baisse depuis 2014
Occidental Petroleum: $10, 90% de baisse depuis 2014
Diamond Back Energy: $29.10, 78% de baisse depuis 2014

Noble Energy: $8.34, 90% de baisse depuis 2014 // en discussion pour être racheté par Chevron
Devon Energy: $9.24, 88% de baisse depuis 2014 // en discussion pour fusionner avec WPX qui ont eux même chuté de 82%

Exxon: à $34.3, 67.6% de baisse depuis 2014
EOG: $36, une chute de 72% depuis octobre 2018
Concho: $44, là aussi une chute de 72% depuis octobre 2018

Tous continuent à subir la situation. J'ai rajouté certains opérateurs. Dans l'optique que la situation actuelle se poursuit, il y aura encore d'autres chapter 11, et des fusions/acquisitions.

Dans l'article ci-dessus, ils parlent d'un bond de l'action pour Devon et WPX à l'annonce de leur fusion. Mais c'est déjà redescendu. Par contre en effet, une telle fusion en ferait un opérateur du niveau d'EOG ou d'Occidental Petroleum en terme de production.
Tiens, par curiosité, que sont-ils devenus?

Chesapeake: Après sa restructuration financière, l'entreprise est revenue en bourse en février 2021. Et a racheté chief oil&gas pour $2.6 mia en mars 2022.
Oasis Petroleum: Après sa restructuration financière, l'entreprise est revenue en bourse en novembre 2020. Et a fusionné Whiting Petroleum en juillet 2022, pour $6 milliards. L'entreprise est renommée Chord Energy
Exxon: L'entreprise avait vu son capital-action chuter à $138 mia en 2020, mais est depuis remonté à presque $500 mia.
Occidental Petroleum: Pas de restructuration. Après le rachat d'Anadarko et son plongeon en 2020, l'entreprise s'est relevée.
EOG: Idem. Remontée de son cours après la chute de 2020.
Concho: Acquise par ConocoPhillips en janvier 2021.
Marathon Petroleum: A pu se relever
Diamond Back Energy: A pu se relever
Noble Energy: Rachetée par Chevron en octobre 2020
Devon Energy: A pu se relever, a acquis WPX (2021) et Validus Energy (2022).

Bref, comme d'habitude, ce genre de période produit beaucoup de fusion/acquisitions. Avec la remontée des cours du pétrole, toutes ces entreprises ont pu se relever financièrement. Devon, par exemple, a vu son capital-action multiplié par 10 par rapport à son creux de 2020.

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