Graphique des réserves prouvés de pétrole ?

[mobar]

Ca n’aura aucune espece d’importance si la croissance voire le plateau du tout liquide se poursuit encore longtemps Et c’est bien parti pour durer!

[GillesH38]

ça fait 5 ans que la production tout liquide n'augmente pas non plus, donc je ne vois pas pourquoi "c'es( bien parti pour durer" ni où tu vois les gisements de croissance des liquides hors pétrole.

[mobar]

La demande ne faiblit pas, la production suit, l’exploration continue’ les investissements et les subventions aussi ... il n’y a pas de raison objective pour que le plateau ne continue pas tant que la croissance tire l’activite et que les renouvelables n’ont pas pris le relais on a encore besoin de petrole probablement pour longtemps

Quand on ne sera plus a 80 % de fossiles mais a 40%, ca va s’accelerer mais en attendant que la ressource se rarefie personne n’a interet a presser le pas

Les developpeurs de renouvelables consolident leurs technos et les producteurs de fossiles rentabilisent l’existant au maximum

Tout baigne et se poursuit selon le plan ... comme en Ukraine

[GillesH38]

La demande ne faiblit pas, la production suit,

bah si la production stagne, c'est que la demande stagne, donc bien sur que si qu'elle faiblit. Evidemment ce n'est pas un écroulement mais ça présente tous les signes que le pic est proche.

[mobar]

Quand la croissance diminue, ça ne baisse pas, ça monte seulement plus lentement!
Comme la démographie, 2% de croissance à 4 milliards de terriens, c'est le même nombre de têtes en plus que 1% à 8 milliards

Pour que la demande en fossiles faiblisse vraiment, il faudrait que la croissance des renouvelables double et passe de 20% par an, à 40% voire 60%

Mais ça finira par arriver, on le sait bien ; le quand n'a pas vraiment d'importance pour l'industrie et le politique, du moment que ça ne change pas fondamentalement les principes de fonctionnement de l'économie

Pour les équilibres des écosystèmes c'est autre chose, mais les écosystèmes n'ont pas voix au chapitre ... pour le moment!

[energy_isere]

Rystad Says Global Recoverable Oil Reserves Hold Steady

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone Staff | Tuesday, July 30, 2024

In a release sent to Rigzone recently, Rystad Energy said its latest research shows that global recoverable oil reserves “held largely steady at around 1,500 billion barrels”.

This figure was “down some 52 billion barrels” from Rystad’s 2023 analysis, the company highlighted in the release, noting that, “of this year over year decrease, 30 billion barrels are due to one year of production, and 22 billion barrels are mostly due to downward adjustments of contingent resources in discoveries”.

“This total recoverable oil resource of 1,500 billion barrels gives an upper limit of how much oil can be produced over the next 100 years or more,” Rystad stated in the release.

“Of course, this upper limit is only realistic and economical if oil demand is not impacted by the energy transition, meaning oil prices would rise far above $100 per barrel,” it added.

“In this theoretical ‘high case’, total oil production would peak around 2035 at 120 million barrels per day, then decline steeply to 85 million barrels per day in 2050,” it continued.

The company stated in the release that, in a more realistic outlook for oil production, total output would peak in 2030 at 108 million barrels per day and decline to 55 million barrels per day in 2050, with oil prices staying around $50 per barrel in real terms.

“Under this scenario, about one-third of the world’s recoverable oil, 500 billion barrels, would become stranded due to unprofitable developments,” Rystad said.

“Such an aggressive energy transition scenario would theoretically limit global warming to 1.9 degrees, but given the current trajectory of oil demand, this path seems unlikely,” it added.

In the release, Rystad reported proven oil reserves at 449 billion barrels, “according to recognized standards”. This provides a lower limit for remaining oil reserves if no new development projects were to be approved and all exploration activities were stopped, the release stated.

Head of Analysis at Rystad Energy Per Magnus Nysveen, said in the release, “the world’s remaining oil reserves are insufficient to support oil demand if there is no transition to electric vehicles”.

“Attempts to limit the supply of oil will have hardly any effect on limiting global warming. Instead, the only feasible way of keeping global temperatures rising less than 2.0 degrees Celsius is to ensure fast electrification of road transportation,” he added.

Rystad highlighted in the release that its estimates of total recoverable oil resources have fallen by 700 billion barrels since 2019 due to reduced exploration activities.

“Exploration has fallen as investors fear new discoveries will remain stranded due to the ongoing electrification of vehicles and the expected slump in both oil demand and crude prices,” Rystad said in the release.


Country Analysis

Rystad pointed out in its release that Saudi Arabia was the country with the most recoverable oil at 247 billion barrels.

The U.S. ranked second with 156 billion barrels, Russia was third with 143 billion barrels, Canada was fourth with 122 billion barrels, and Iraq was fifth with 105 billion barrels, according to the release.

“The largest downward revisions are seen in Saudi Arabia, where development priorities have shifted from offshore capacity expansions to onshore infill drilling,” Rystad stated in the release.

“The only country with any significant increase in 2024 is Argentina, with a gain of four billion barrels thanks to the derisking of shale projects in the Vaca Muerta formation,” it added.

According to the Energy Institute’s (EI) 2024 statistical review of world energy, Saudi Arabia produced 9.60 million barrels of crude oil and condensate per day in 2023. The U.S. produced 12.92 million barrels per day, Russia produced 10.55 million barrels per day, Canada produced 4.93 million barrels per day, and Iraq produced 4.27 million barrels per day, the review showed.

The top crude oil and condensate producer last year was the U.S., followed by Russia, Saudi Arabia, Canada, and Iraq, according to the review, which showed that total world crude oil and condensate output was 82.75 million barrels per day in 2023. That figure was 1.7 percent year on year, the review highlighted.

The EI’s review outlined that, in 2023, Saudi Arabia produced 11.38 million barrels of oil per day, the U.S. produced 19.35 million barrels of oil per day, Russia produced 11.07 million barrels of oil per day, Canada produced 5.65 million barrels of oil per day, and Iraq produced 4.35 million barrels of oil per day.

EI’s review showed that the top oil producer last year was the U.S., followed by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, and Iran. Total global oil production in 2023 was 96.37 million barrels per day, according to the review, which revealed that this was up 2.2 percent year on year.

Recoverable oil reserve/resource figures in Rystad’s release include crude oil and lease condensate. The EI review’s crude oil and condensate figures include crude oil, shale/tight oil, oil sands, lease condensate or gas condensates that require further refining. They exclude liquid fuels from other sources such as biomass and synthetic derivatives of coal and natural gas.

The review’s oil production figures include crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, condensates (lease condensate or gas condensates that require further refining) and NGLs (natural gas liquids – ethane, LPG and naphtha separated from the production of natural gas).

They exclude liquid fuels from other sources such as biofuels and synthetic derivatives of coal and natural gas and liquid fuel adjustment factors such as refinery processing gain. They also excludes oil shales/kerogen extracted in solid form.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/rystad_say ... 8-article/