La production pétroliére des USA

[energy_isere]

suite de ce post du 30 dec 2023 : http://www.oleocene.org/phpBB3/viewtopi ... 4#p2382344

High Oil Prices Force Biden Admin to Halt SPR Refill Plans

By Robert Rapier - May 03, 2024

Despite indicating they would refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by the end of this year, the Department of Energy has now canceled solicitations offered last month.

Citing rising oil prices, the DOE said, “We will not award the current solicitations for the Bayou Choctaw SPR site and will solicit available capacity as market conditions allow.” Three million barrels of oil had been slated for delivery to the Bayou Choctaw SPR site in August and September.
The SPR is the world’s largest supply of emergency crude oil. It was established primarily to reduce the impact of disruptions in supplies of petroleum products and to carry out obligations of the United States under the international energy program.

The SPR is maintained by the U.S. DOE and its oil stocks are stored in huge underground salt caverns at four sites along the coastline of the Gulf of Mexico. The size of the SPR (authorized storage capacity of 714 million barrels) makes it a significant deterrent to oil import cutoffs and a key tool in foreign policy.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Biden Administration made the largest withdrawal in SPR history to curb the oil price spikes that happened in the wake of the invasion. The DOE has consistently promised to refill the SPR as market conditions allow.
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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/H ... Plans.html

[tita]

Derniers chiffres mensuels de l'EIA pour la production de mars dernier.

La production a augmenté, passant de 13'105 kb/j à 13'182 kb/j, soit une augmentation de 77 kb/j. La production offshore a augmenté de 30 kb/j à 1'823 kb/j ce qui fait que la production onshore a augmenté de 47 kb/j. Sur les 5 derniers mois, la production onshore a augmenté de 90 kb/j. Les estimations hebdomadaires étaient à 13'120 kb/j, une sous-estimation de 62 kb/j

Sur les 12 derniers mois (mars. 2023-mars. 2024), la production US a augmenté de 412 kb/j.

On a l'impression que la production US a atteint un plateau. Novembre 2023 devient un mois record à 13'295 kb/j, et là on est en-dessous (~100 kb/j). Plus qu'à voir l'évolution sur le reste de l'année pour avoir la confirmation.

[energy_isere]

The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States fell this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday.

Jun 07, 2024,

The total rig count fell by 6 to 594 this week, compared to 695 rigs this same time last year.
The number of oil rigs fell by 4 this week, after staying the same in the week prior. Oil rigs now stand at 492--down by 64 compared to this time last year. The number of gas rigs fell by 2 this week to 98, a loss of 37 active gas rigs from this time last year. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 4.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production stayed the same for the twelfth week in a row at an average of 13.1 million bpd for the week ending May 31—down 200,000 bpd from the all-time high of 13.3 million bpd.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... lines.html

[energy_isere]

U.S. Oil, Gas Drilling Activity Sees Further Declines

By Julianne Geiger - Jun 14, 2024

The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States fell this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday.

The total rig count fell by 4 to 590 this week, compared to 687 rigs this same time last year.
The number of oil rigs fell by 4 again this week, after falling by 4 in the week prior. Oil rigs now stand at 488--down by 64 compared to this time last year. The number of gas rigs stayed the same this week at 98, a loss of 32 active gas rigs from this time last year. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 4.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production broke its 12-week 13.1 million bpd streak for week ending June 07, rising by 100,000 bpd to an average of 13.2 million bpd. Current weekly production in the United States, according to the EIA, is now down down 100,000 bpd from the all-time high of 13.3 million bpd.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... lines.html

[tita]

Derniers chiffres mensuels de l'EIA pour la production de avril dernier.

La production a augmenté, passant de 13'176 kb/j à 13'248 kb/j, soit une augmentation de 72 kb/j. La production offshore a augmenté de 14 kb/j à 1'831 kb/j ce qui fait que la production onshore a augmenté de 58 kb/j. Sur les 5 derniers mois, la production onshore a diminué de 33 kb/j. Les estimations hebdomadaires étaient à 13'100 kb/j, une sous-estimation de 148 kb/j

Sur les 12 derniers mois (avril. 2023-avril. 2024), la production US a augmenté de 598 kb/j.

On observe une petite diminution de la production onshore depuis la fin 2023 (novembre-décembre), ce qui est plutôt rare. Autrement, il n'y a pas tellement de surprise, si ce n'est que le plateau se poursuit, on est au même niveau qu'en septembre 2023...

[alain2908]

Et comment tu interpretes la conjonction de ce plateau avec la baisse des forages ?

[tita]

Et comment tu interpretes la conjonction de ce plateau avec la baisse des forages ?

Ben, y'a un lien, mais c'est pas "direct". J'expliquais ça il y a une année:

http://www.oleocene.org/phpBB3/viewtopi ... 5#p2372764

La production US a quand même augmenté d'environ 600 kb/j jusqu'en septembre. Depuis, ça stagne.

[energy_isere]

Kosmos Energy Announces First Oil Production at Winterfell in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

édité le 03/07/2024

Kosmos Energy Ltd. (Kosmos) announced the successful start-up of oil production at the Winterfell development in the Green Canyon area of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

Winterfell (Kosmos 25.04% working interest) is a phased development with the initial two production wells of the first phase now online and ramping up production. A third well is currently being drilled and is expected to be online by the end of the third quarter of 2024. The three initial wells are expected to deliver gross production of approximately 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd).
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https://www.euro-petrole.com/kosmos-ene ... -n-i-27208

[alain2908]

Et comment tu interpretes la conjonction de ce plateau avec la baisse des forages ?

Ben, y'a un lien, mais c'est pas "direct". J'expliquais ça il y a une année:

http://www.oleocene.org/phpBB3/viewtopi ... 5#p2372764

La production US a quand même augmenté d'environ 600 kb/j jusqu'en septembre. Depuis, ça stagne.

merci
je trouve néanmoins contre-intuitif l'écart entre l'évolution des RIG et le maintien d'une production record.
D'autant que le stock de DUC que tu évoques ne me parait pas énorme.

[tita]

merci
je trouve néanmoins contre-intuitif l'écart entre l'évolution des RIG et le maintien d'une production record.
D'autant que le stock de DUC que tu évoques ne me parait pas énorme.

Oui, c'est contre-intuitif. C'est pour ça que depuis plusieurs années, j'essaie de comprendre pourquoi cette corrélation "nombre de rigs vs production" n'est pas si évidente que ça.

Il faut prendre en compte la courbe de production d'un puits. On peut voir ça ici par exemple, pour le bassin permien:
https://novilabs.com/blog/permian-updat ... -jan-2024/

Y'a 3'100 DUCs actuellement dans les principaux bassins, contre 7'100 en juillet 2020. Ils ont complété plus de puits qu'ils n'en creusaient.

J'en arrive à la conclusion que la production US ne va pas chuter fortement de sitôt. Quand on regarde d'autres bassins (Eagle Ford, Bakken), on se rend compte que la production a dépassé un pic, mais qu'elle arrive quand même à se maintenir.

C'est possible que ça atteigne un maximum entre 2023 et 2025. On se rend déjà compte qu'il n'y aura pas de 3ème boom du schiste. Mais ce n'est qu'en 2030 à mon avis qu'on remarquera si ça diminue vraiment.

[energy_isere]

U.S. Oil, Gas Drilling Activity Sees Rebound

By Julianne Geiger - Jul 19, 2024,

The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States rose this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday.

The total rig count rose by 2 to 586 this week, compared to 669 rigs this same time last year.
The number of oil rigs fell by 1 this week, falling by a single rig in the week prior. Oil rigs now stand at 477—down by 53 compared to this time last year. The number of gas rigs rose by 3 this week to 103, a loss of 28 active gas rigs from this time last year. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 6.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production rose 1 million bpd to 13.3 million bpd for for the week ending July 12. Current weekly oil production in the United States, according to the EIA, is now on par with the all-time high of 13.3 million bpd.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... bound.html

[energy_isere]

données Statista 2024

Crude oil production in the United States in 2023, by state(in 1,000 barrels)

[energy_isere]

Oil Rig Count Jumps as Drilling Activity Picks Up

By Julianne Geiger - Jul 26, 2024

The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States rose this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday.

The total rig count rose by 3 to 589 this week, compared to 664 rigs this same time last year.
The number of oil rigs rose by 5 this week, after falling by a single rig in the week prior. Oil rigs now stand at 482—down by 47 compared to this time last year. The number of gas rigs fell by 2 this week to 101, a loss of 27 active gas rigs from this time last year. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 6.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production stayed the same for the week ending July 19. Current weekly oil production in the United States, according to the EIA, is now on par with the all-time high of 13.3 million bpd.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... ks-Up.html

[tita]

Derniers chiffres mensuels de l'EIA pour la production de mai dernier.

La production a diminué, passant de 13'239 kb/j à 13'178 kb/j, soit une diminution de 61 kb/j. La production offshore a diminué de 46 kb/j à 1'782 kb/j ce qui fait que la production onshore a diminué de 15 kb/j. Sur les 5 derniers mois, la production onshore a diminué de 60 kb/j. Les estimations hebdomadaires étaient à 13'100 kb/j, une sous-estimation de 78 kb/j

Sur les 12 derniers mois (mai. 2023-mai. 2024), la production US a augmenté de 448 kb/j.

On est toujours dans une production US qui est sur un plateau depuis septembre 2023. Et il n'y a pas de condition météo particulière en mai qui explique ça. Je ne vais pas trop m'avancer dans des prédictions, mais je suis intéressé à comparer les chiffre du dernier STEO (juin: 13.24 Mb/j et juillet: 13.28 Mb/j) avec ce qu'on aura dans les deux prochains rapports.

[energy_isere]

suite de ce post du 05 mai 2024 http://www.oleocene.org/phpBB3/viewtopi ... 8#p2390628

U.S. To Purchase More Oil for SPR While Prices Are Low

By Julianne Geiger - Aug 06, 2024,

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is continuing its efforts to bolster the depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) with new oil purchases. Today, DOE's Office of Petroleum Reserves announced a call for bids to supply up to 1.5 million barrels of oil to the Bayou Choctaw site in January 2025. An additional solicitation will follow on August 12, 2024, for another 2 million barrels destined for the Bryan Mound site, also for delivery in January 2025. This move is part of a strategic plan to replenish the SPR while taking advantage of favorable oil prices.
The DOE's stated goal is to buy crude oil at or below $79 per barrel.

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https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... e-Low.html