Venezuela : 235 milliards de barils dans l'Orénoque ?

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Re: Venezuela : 235 milliards de barils dans l'Orénoque ?

Message par energy_isere » 15 févr. 2010, 19:48

energy_isere a écrit : An Estimate of Recoverable Heavy Oil Resources of the Orinoco Oil Belt, Venezuela concernant la news ci dessus ( les 513 milliards de barils .....) , c' est bien evidemment suite à un press release de l' USGS (un communiqué de presse) qui vient d' étre publié. Le 22 Janvier 2010 donc.

voici sur le site de l' USGS : http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2386
.....
J' ai trouvé mieux.

Voici un pdf de 4 pages publié par l' USGS à ce sujet.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2009/3028/pdf/FS09-3028.pdf
An Estimate of Recoverable Heavy Oil Resources of the Orinoco Oil Belt, Venezuela

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Re: Venezuela : 235 milliards de barils dans l'Orénoque ?

Message par Philippe » 17 févr. 2010, 14:03

Merci à energy_isere pour le lien de l’USGS.

Il n’y a pas grand-chose à garder dans l’étude de l’ISGS, sinon la bibliographie. Il y a de nombreuses approximations à signaler.

La première concerne les volumes en place. PDVSA a publié deux chiffres, 1 180 millions de barils en 1987, puis 1 300 millions de barils en 2001. Ce sont des valeurs dites déterministes. PDVSA ne donne, en effet, pas la fourchette de valeurs habituelles (mini, médian, maxi), ou du moins l’USGS ne la reprend pas. Dans tous les cas, il y a une incohérence à afficher, simultanément, dans la table 1, des fourchettes de variation très grandes de porosité et d’épaisseur, alors que ces données sont déjà prises en compte pour le calcul des volumes en place, d’une part, et une fourchette aussi étroite des volumes en place d’autre part (le volume en place au kilomètre carré est le produit de l’épaisseur, de la porosité, de la saturation en hydrocarbures (le complément à 100% de la saturation en eau), et de l’inverse du « formation volume factor », le tout multiplié par le kilomètre carré en question). J’ai fait sur Excel un petit modèle probabiliste ultrasimple, en supposant une distribution triangulaire des 4 paramètres pour lesquels des valeurs mini, médianes et maxi sont données. J’arrive à la fourchette suivante, pour le volume en place dans un kilomètre carré :

Mini (P95) : 13 millions de barils
Médian (P50) : 65 millions de barils
Maxi (P95): 151 millions de barils

On voit qu’il y a un facteur 12 entre le cas mini et le cas maxi. On voit donc mal comment les volumes d’huile en place, dans la totalité du bassin de la Ceinture de l’Orénoque, pourraient être connus à 50% près, sachant que les incertitudes sur les superficies s’ajoutent aux incertitudes sur les conditions de gisement en sous-sol.

Tout aussi grave, le choix des taux de récupération. L’USGS écrit d’ailleurs que : « no attempt was made in this study to estimate either economically recoverable resources or reserves within the Orinoco Oil Belt AU. Most important, these results do not imply anything about rates of heavy oil production or about the likelihood of heavy oil recovery ». Un taux de récupération, sans considération de l’économie du projet (voire de l’EROEI global), n’a pas grand sens. L’USGS admet, en outre, implicitement, que son calcul est sans intérêt pratique puisque cet organisme ne se prononce pas sur la plausibilité des taux de récupération annoncés.

Le calcul probabiliste de l’USGS se limite, en fait, aux deux premiers paramètres : le volume en place, dont on voit qu’il varie dans une plage somme toute assez réduite, et le taux de récupération qui varie dans une plage énorme. Si le volume en place était connu avec précision (P5 = P50 = P95), le calcul probabiliste ne porterait que sur le taux de récupération, et on aurait (avec un calcul vite fait sur Excel) :

Taux de récupération mini (P95) : 17,8 %
Taux de récupération médian (P50) : 45,3%
Taux de récupération maxi (P5) : 67,9%

On voit que c’est le choix de taux de récupération très élevés qui fausse le résultat.

Le taux de récupération de 15%, annoncé comme un minimum, apparaît déjà extrêmement ambitieux. L’expérience californienne des huiles lourdes ne peut pas être transposée au Venezuela : le gisement de Kern River, dont la superficie est de 43 km², a été exploité par plus de 9 000 puits, soit une densité de 200 puits au kilomètre carré (un puits par terrain de rugby !). Quant aux taux de récupération de 45%, et encore plus de 70%, on est en plein fantasme.

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Re: Venezuela : 235 milliards de barils dans l'Orénoque ?

Message par energy_isere » 17 févr. 2010, 16:12

Philippe a écrit :Merci à energy_isere pour le lien de l’USGS.

Il n’y a pas grand-chose à garder dans l’étude de l’ISGS, sinon la bibliographie. Il y a de nombreuses approximations à signaler......
Oui, moi ce que retiens c' est que c' est encore assez flou.

J' attend de voir ce que les blocs de l' Orinoco belt qui viennent d' étre attribués ( Junin et Carabobo) donneront réellement comme production de pétrole d' ici 5 ans.

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Re: Venezuela : 235 milliards de barils dans l'Orénoque ?

Message par energy_isere » 02 mars 2010, 12:59

Peut étre une nouvelle enchére pour le pétrole de Caracobo l' an prochain.
Venezuela says likely to auction more oil fields
.....
Ramirez said future auctions could include a project that was included in the Carabobo bidding round in February but failed to attract a high enough offer. He said any auction for the Carabobo 'Project 2' would not happen this year.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN011 ... arketsNews

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Re: Venezuela : 235 milliards de barils dans l'Orénoque ?

Message par energy_isere » 20 mars 2010, 11:54

suite de ce post du 30 janvier 2010 :
Le gouvernement Indien ratifie les intentions d' investissement de leurs compagnies pétroliére pour 2.18 millions de $ au Venezuela dans la zone de Carabobo-1.
India Gives Thumbs Up for $2B Carabobo Oil Investment

Rigzone

NEW DELHI (Dow Jones), Mar. 19, 2010

The Indian government Friday approved an investment of $2.18 billion during 2010-2015 by three state-run oil companies in Venezuela's Carabobo 1 oil block.

On Feb. 11, Oil & Natural Gas unit ONGC Videsh Ltd., Indian Oil Corp. and Oil India, in consortium with Spain's Repsol YPF SA and Malaysia's Petroliam Nasional Bhd., were awarded development rights for the Carabobo 1 block.

The three Indian companies hold an 18% stake in the project, with OVL holding 11% while IOC and Oil India holding 3.5% each. Spain's Repsol and Malaysia's Petronas hold an 11% stake each in the project. Venezuela's state-run oil firm Petroleos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA, holds the remaining stake.

The consortium will enter into an arrangement with PDVSA on April 22. The consortium has paid a $1.05 billion signing bonus and will pay another $1.05 billion to PDVSA for financing.

While OVL is likely to invest $1.33 billion, IOC and Oil India are expected to invest $425 million each. The cabinet panel also approved their borrowing plan but without government guarantees, Chidambaram said.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp ... 754&hmpn=1

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Re: Venezuela : 235 milliards de barils dans l'Orénoque ?

Message par geopolis » 01 avr. 2010, 13:37

Le ministre vénézuelien de l'énergie annonce que le bloc Junin-6 ( JV PDVSA et consortium russe) produira 50 000 b/j en 2010.
Venezuela, Russia To Invest $30B In Heavy Crude Production
31/03/2010 DJ

Venezuelan and Russian oil companies plan to start producing 50,000 barrels of heavy crude a day this year from the Junin block in the eastern Orinoco region, Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said Wednesday.
The consortium plans to invest $30 billion to extract and process extra-heavy crude from the block that would eventually produce 450,000 barrels a day, Ramirez said in a statement.
The 448 square-kilometer Junin 6 block is estimated to comprise some 53 billion barrels of reserves. Petroleos de Venezuela SA had previously estimated the project's required investment at $18 billion.

The Venezuela-led project will see PDVSA in control of 60% of the joint venture, with a consortium of Russian firms holding the remaining 40%. The members of the consortium are Rosneft, Gazprom, Lukoil, Surgutneftegas, and TNK-BP, according to previous reports from PDVSA.
The deal is the second after Venezuela signed a similar deal with Italy's ENI to develop the neighboring Junin 5 block.
The Junin 5 project would need about $18 billion of investment, and production would peak at around 240,000 barrels a day by 2016.

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Re: Venezuela : 235 milliards de barils dans l'Orénoque ?

Message par geopolis » 20 avr. 2010, 22:57

Comme pour Junin-6 le Vénézuela et son partenaire chinois CNPC s'attendent a produire 50 000 b/j de pétrole d'ici 2012 sur le bloc Junin-4 et 400 000 b/j en 2016.
Venezuela, China see first Junin output in 2012


CARACAS, April 19 (Reuters) - Venezuela's state oil firm PDVSA and China's CNPC expect first production of 50,000 barrels per day by 2012 from their joint venture in the Junin 4 block of the Orinoco heavy-crude belt, PDVSA said on Monday.
Output should then rise to 400,000 bpd in 2016, when an upgrader being built for the project is due to start operations, the Venezuelan firm added in a statement.

PDVSA and CNPC formalized their joint venture on Saturday at a signing ceremony attended by President Hugo Chavez. Chinese President Hu Jintao had planned to be present, but cut short a Latin American trip due to an earthquake at home.
PDVSA said the planned total $16.3 billion investment in the project would be split between $10.3 billion for production, and $6 billion for upgrading.

"The development plan for this joint venture will last for 25 years," the statement added.
"The development of this field will generate the crude oil to be processed in the refineries to be built by PDVSA and CNPC in China to meet the growing demand of the Asian market."

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Re: Venezuela : 235 milliards de barils dans l'Orénoque ?

Message par Raminagrobis » 25 avr. 2010, 13:56

lien : la folie des chiffres s'emballe.

Maintenant le directeur de PdVSA "promet" 4.6 Mb/j dans l'orénoque pour 2020 :lol:

C'est gens qui vivent là bas (amérindiens ou pas) qui vont être contents. Et puis, merci pour la foret amazonienne, au passage :-({|=
Toujours moins.

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Re: Venezuela : 235 milliards de barils dans l'Orénoque ?

Message par energy_isere » 11 mai 2010, 13:37

Chavez parle de signature de contrats pour 40 milliards de $ cette semaine.

C' est au sujet de Carabobo 1 and 3.
Venezuela to sign oil deals worth $40 billion

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) May 11, 2010

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said his government will sign agreements this week with foreign oil companies that will lead to $40 billion in investments in oil projects.

Chavez announced the plan Sunday with a post on Twitter: "We will be signing with oil companies from India, Japan, Spain, U.S. investment $40 billion. How about that?"

It was one of the most noteworthy developments Chavez has announced on Twitter since joining the social networking site less than two weeks ago.

He said the agreements would be signed tomorrow. The companies involved recently won bidding to exploit the areas Carabobo 1 and 3 in the crude-rich Orinoco River basin in eastern Venezuela.
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Ven ... on_7600787

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Re: Venezuela : 235 milliards de barils dans l'Orénoque ?

Message par geopolis » 13 mai 2010, 00:20

Alors que L'IEA annonce aujourd'hui une production pétrolière pour avril de 2 250 000 b/j ( l'Opec parle de 2 340 000 b/j), Caracas officialise la signature avec les partenaires étrangers et PDVSA des projets Carabobo 1 et 3 pour 40 mds de dollars.
Ramirez said the investment in each project will be between $15 billion and $20 billion, which will include the construction of oil upgraders that can convert the Orinoco region's extra-heavy crude into lighter, more marketable fuel.
Output from the Chevron-led project is expected to reach 400,00 barrels a day over the coming years, while the project Repsol is associated with is even more promising, with peak production seen at 480,000 barrels a day.
The Chevron-led consortium will have to pay an initial payment of $500 million to Venezuela now that the final deal has been struck, while the Repsol consortium will need to pay $1.05 billion.

Le ministre vénézuelien du pétrole s'attend a une production de 4 150 000 b/j dès 2015.
Venezuela expects its oil production capacity to reach 4.15 million barrels a day by 2015, Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said Wednesday, compared to current output of around 3 million barrels a day.

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Re: Venezuela : 235 milliards de barils dans l'Orénoque ?

Message par energy_isere » 14 mai 2010, 11:55

Hop, encore 20 milliards de $ de contrats, avec des Indiens.
Ainsi les Indiens pourront acheter 3.6 millions de tonnes de pétrole par an venant de l' Orinocco belt d' un projet Carabobo.

India, Venezuela ink pact to develop $20-billion oil project

NEW DELHI: In a big-ticket investment aimed at giving a boost to its holding of oil and gas assets abroad, the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Videsh Limited (OVL), along with its partners, entered into an agreement with the Venezuelan government on Thursday to develop a $20-billion oil project in that country.

The project is expected to give India 3.6 million tonnes of crude a year.
OVL and its partners signed the agreement with Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PdV) for development and production of hydrocarbons from the Carabobo project in the Orinoco region.

The agreement was signed in Caracas in the presence of Venezuela President Hugo Chavez, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Murli Deora, Petroleum Secretary S. Sundereshan, ONGC chairman R.S. Sharma, OVL Managing Director R.S. Butoal and IOC chairman B.M. Bansal.

Spain's Repsol-YPF SA, Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) of Malaysia and OVL each hold a 11 per cent stake in the consortium that will produce 400,000 barrels of oil a day. IOC and Oil India Limited will each have 3.5 per cent interest in the joint venture to develop the Carabobo 1 Norte and Carabobo 1 Centro blocks, located in the Orino Heavy Oil Belt. Corporacion Venezolana del Petroleo, a unit of PdV, will hold the remaining equity. About half of the production from the joint venture, called PetroCarabobo SA, will be upgraded light crude oil for export.

The project cost has been pegged at $15–20 billion.
http://www.hindu.com/2010/05/14/stories ... 350100.htm

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Re: Venezuela : 235 milliards de barils dans l'Orénoque ?

Message par energy_isere » 01 juil. 2010, 13:27

Le Vietnam signe un accord pour exploiter dans Junin2 avec PDVSA.
200 000 b/j prévu à partir de 2016 (de type heavy crude)

Venezuela, Vietnam sign joint oil venture contract

Posted: 01 July 2010


CARACAS: Venezuela and PetroVietnam have signed a contract to form a joint venture to pump and refine crude in the Orinoco delta area, the state oil giant PDVSA announced Wednesday.

The Venezuelan concern dubbed PDVSA Petromacareo will focus on "production and refining of ultraheavy crude in the Junin 2 bloc of the Orinoco oil belt," in eastern Venezuela, the statement said.

The contract is for 25 years.

The partners hope to refine 200,000 barrels per day of heavy crude starting in 2016, PDVSA said.

Half of the production would be sent to Vietnam which would hold a 40-per cent stake in the venture and pay Venezuela 584 million dollars to take part, officials said.

PDVSA is South America's biggest oil producer. - AFP
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/ ... 98/1/.html

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Re: Venezuela : 235 milliards de barils dans l'Orénoque ?

Message par energy_isere » 14 juil. 2010, 12:16

pour faire suite à ce post de début d' année et aux quelques un qui suivent :
viewtopic.php?p=265050#p265050

Le Vénezuela espére faire certifier 105 milliards de barils suplémentaires d' ici la fin de l' année.
Dans ce cas le total des réserves du Venezuela deviendrait supérieur au chiffre des reserves de l' Arabie Saoudite.

Mais attention, il s' agit de pétroles extra lourds qui vont demander énormément d' investissements et de nouvelles infrastructures.
Venezuela vows to take lead in world's crude oil reserves

Looks to overtake Saudi Arabia with Orinoco deposits

July 14, 2010 calgaryherald.com

Venezuela hopes to catapult past Saudi Arabia as the world leader in certified crude oil reserves when it finishes registering oil deposits in its vast Orinoco Belt this year.

An increase of 22.5 per cent in the Latin American country's reserves was behind OPEC's announcement last week that the group's proven reserves rose in 2009 to 1.06 trillion barrels.

" We hope to end 2010 with the incorporation of (another) 105 billion barrels of proven reserves. With this achievement, Venezuela would become the country with the biggest certified crude reserves (316 billion barrels) on the planet," President Hugo Chavez's government said in a statement at the weekend.

Saudi Arabia has 265 billion barrels of reserves, according to its latest statement to OPEC. But its big advantage is that its oil is mostly light, conventional, easily pumped crude.

Venezuela's Orinoco Belt deposits are extra heavy, tar-like sour crude that must be upgraded or mixed with a lighter grade to create an exportable blend. But there is a lot of it.

In January, the U.S. Geological Survey gave credibility to the Caracas government's long-held assertions by saying the Orinoco Belt held some 513 billion barrels of crude that could be recovered -- if costs were not an issue.

There are doubts about when touted projects to tap the area will come online because of mismanagement in state oil company PDVSA, which has a majority stake in each Orinoco block, and political uncertainty about investing in Venezuela, where Chavez has nationalized most of the oil industry. That included taking over multibillion dollar Orinoco projects run by U.S. majors Exxon- Mobil Corp. and ConocoPhillips in 2007, followed by expropriating the assets of 76 smaller oil service companies in May last year.

But those concerns did not stop Venezuela signing several contracts in February with energy companies for projects slated to add 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of new production and draw some $80 billion in investment.

Crucially for the firms' balance sheets, Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez has told Reuters they can book their share of Orinoco project reserves for accounting purposes -- although they may not use them as guarantees for loans.

Most interesting are Junin Block 5, where Italy's Enihas a 40 per cent stake, Carabobo Project 3, where U.S. major Chevron has a 34 per cent interest, and Carabobo Project 1, where Spain's Repsolhas 11 per cent.

"The question is, to what extent will PDVSA let their partners participate? Because they do have skilled partners in these blocks with the experience that's needed," said one consultant who works in the sector and asked not to be named.

Elsewhere in the Orinoco, Chavez's socialist government has awarded deals to Chinese, Indian, Vietnamese, Japanese and Malaysian firms, and to a consortium of five Russian companies. These firms have less experience handling extra-heavy crude.

Francisco Monaldi, an energy expert and professor at Caracas' Higher Management Studies Institute business school, said a reserve audit by U.S.-based petroleum consultant Ryder Scott has given more credibility to the already well established approximate figure of oil in place in the Orinoco.

"What it did not provide is an audited figure on the recovery rate. The government uses a recovery rate of 20 per cent, well above the actual rate obtained in the Orinoco projects (around nine per cent)," Monaldi told Reuters.

The technology needed to pump the Orinoco's ultraheavy crude is much more complicated and expensive than light oil machinery. But since analysts say the world's reserves of easy-to-produce light oil are running out, the future of the industry is in more difficult production areas like the Orinoco Belt, Brazil's deepwater fields or Canada's oilsands.

In Venezuela, many of the planned projects are in isolated rural areas that lack even basic infrastructure. Until those challenges are overcome, experts say, the country's huge reserves statistics remain just numbers on spreadsheets.

Development will also depend on global oil prices that fell to near $32 in late 2008 from a historic high of $147 in July of that year, and are currently at around $75 US.

"Oil in the ground has zero value," Jorge Pinon, a senior former oil executive, and now visiting research fellow with Florida International University's American and Caribbean Center, told Reuters.

"The development of the Orinoco reserves is very expensive and complex and can only be monetized if the long-term price forecast of oil is over the range of $75 to $85 per barrel."
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/V ... story.html

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Re: Venezuela : 235 milliards de barils dans l'Orénoque ?

Message par energy_isere » 23 nov. 2010, 12:33

Les Italiens de ENI ont signés des contrats avec PDVSA pour l' extraction et rafinnage du pétrole lourd dans le bloc de Junin 5.
Objectif pour ce bloc Junin 5 : 75000 b/j en 2013 , 240000 b/j en 2018.
Eni OKs Heavy Oil Venezuela Project, To Build Refinery

22 November 2010

ROME -(Dow Jones)- Italian energy company Eni SpA (E) Monday said it has signed contracts in Venezuela involving heavy oil and a refinery build, as part of its aims to expand by taking on large hydrocarbon projects.

In a statement, Eni said Chief Executive Paolo Scaroni signed the contracts in Caracas with Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez, setting up two companies to be controlled by Petroleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA.

PetroJunin will be dedicated to the development of the Junin 5 Block, while PetroBicentenario will construct and operate a refinery in the existing coastal industrial complex of Jose. PDVSA will own a 60% stake in the two companies, and Eni will hold the remainder.

Eni is targeting Venezuela's large oil and natural gas projects amid high prices while some of its peers avoid the country following President Hugo Chavez's nationalization of assets in the past decade. Last week, Eni increased its gas reserves estimate at Venezuela's Perla field after successfully drilling a well.

Eni said it will pay a bonus share of $646 million. It added that $300 million of this will paid when the two companies are incorporated, while the balance, in installments, is based on reaching specific targets.

Eni, Italy's biggest energy company by market value, confirmed it estimates an early production at the Junin 5 Block of 75,000 barrels a day by 2013, and expects to reach a peak of 240,000 barrels a day in 2018.

The new refinery will have a capacity of 240,000 barrels a day, and will be able to process additional volumes of about 110,000 barrels a day from other PDVSA facilities.

Eni said it estimates its daily production in Venezuela will jump to more than 180,000 barrels of oil equivalent in 2019 from today's 10,000.
http://english.capital.gr/News.asp?id=1091633

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Re: Venezuela : 235 milliards de barils dans l'Orénoque ?

Message par energy_isere » 04 déc. 2010, 11:31

Le parlement du Venezuela approuve une alliance tripartite entre PVDSA, CubaPetróleo (Cuba) and Sonangol (Angola) d' une durée de 25 ans pour produire du pétrole à partir des huiles lourdes de l' Orénoque. Objectif de production de 20000 b/j.
Ca sera du pétrole super lourd avec un degré API de 11 à 16.

(pour info : http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Densit%C3%A9_API et http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classifica ... s_liquides )
Venezuela approves Orinoco oil venture with Cuba

12 / 04 / 2010

The Venezuelan parliament approved a triangular joint venture between the state oil companies of Venezuela, Cuba and Angola that will produce oil in the Orinoco Basin.

The 25-year partnership of PdVSA, CubaPetróleo and Sonangol is expected to produce oil and associated gas to the tune of 20,000 barrels per day, at a low quality ranging from 11 to 16 degrees API in the central state of Anzoátegui.

PdVSA owns a 60-percent share of the joint venture, with the two junior partners owning 20 percent each. This would translate to 4,000 barrels per day pertaining to Cuba.

The Cuba island consumes some 150,000 barrels per day.
!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-0 ... limbs.html

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