La production pétroliére des USA

[tita]

Un petit tour par le SPR, la réserve stratégique américaine:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... SSTUS1&f=W

En une année, ce sont 147 Mb de pétrole qui ont été sortis de cette réserve. Ce qui correspond à un apport de 400 kb/j de pétrole sur le marché. Le rythme, dans le dernier mois, est même le double à 821 kb/j.

C'est inédit depuis la création de cette réserve. Le niveau est descendu au plus bas depuis 1985. L'administration Biden avait annoncé en mai utiliser 180 Mb de cette réserve pour calmer les marchés, avant de commencer à reconstituer cette réserve à l'automne:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-05-05/

Hier, l'administration a cependant fait part de l'intention de vendre 20 Mb de plus.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-07-26/

Sans cet apport exceptionnel du SPR, les stocks commerciaux seraient à leur plus bas historique (250 Mb). Reste à voir combien de temps encore les US vont taper dedans... Ce serait assez étonnant qu'ils commencent à le remplir à l'automne si le marché est toujours sous tension.

[energy_isere]

U.S. Drillers Continue To Add Rigs As Crude Prices Rally

By Julianne Geiger - Jul 29, 2022,

The number of total active drilling rigs in the United States rose by 9 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published on Friday.

The total rig count rose to 767 this week—279 rigs higher than the rig count this time in 2021.

Oil rigs in the United States rose by 6 this week to 605. Gas rigs rose by 2, to 157. Miscellaneous rigs rose by 1 to 5.

The rig count in the Permian Basin rose by 2 to 351 this week. Rigs in the Eagle Ford increased by 2 to 72. Oil and gas rigs in the Permian are 108 above where they were this time last year.

Primary Vision's Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells—a more frugal use of finances than drilling new wells—rose to 290 for week ending July 22, compared to 243 a year ago.

Crude oil production in the United States rose 200,000 bpd to 12.1 million bpd in the week ending July 22, according to the latest EIA data.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... Rally.html

[tita]

Derniers chiffres mensuels de l'EIA pour la production de mai dernier.

La production a reculé, passant de 11'652 kb/j à 11'595 kb/j, soit une diminution de 57 kb/j. La production offshore a diminué de 157 kb/j à 1606 kb/j ce qui fait que la production onshore a augmenté de 100 kb/j. Sur les 5 derniers mois, la production onshore a augmenté de 48 kb/j. Les estimations hebdomadaires étaient à 11'875 kb/j, une sur-estimation de 280 kb/j.

Sur les 12 derniers mois (mai. 2021-mai. 2022), la production US a augmenté de 239 kb/j.

On continue dans la stagnation de la production américaine. Pas de 3ème boom de schiste à l'horizon. La production US devrait néanmoins dépasser les 12 Mb/j dans le courant de l'année, mais pas dépasser les 12.5 Mb/j.

[tita]

Le nombre de machines de forages en activité diminue de 3 aux USA. Dans le détail, baisse de 7 unités pour le pétrole (598), et augmentation de 4 pour le gaz (161).

Au niveau des forages pétroliers, y'a un truc que je trouve intéressant. Fin 2018, on avait atteint un pic à 888 unités (mi-novembre), et c'était ensuite progressivement descendu à 683 unités avant la pandémie, en mars 2020. Donc en fait, on est assez proche du niveau d'avant-pandémie.

Depuis mi-mai, dans le bassin permien, le niveau s'est stabilisé à environ 345 unités. Ce n'est pas inhabituel durant l'été. Faudra voir comment ça évolue d'ici novembre.

[energy_isere]

U.S. Drilling Activity Sees Decline For Second Straight Week

By Julianne Geiger - Aug 12, 2022, oilprice.com

The number of total active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 1 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published on Friday. It is the second decline in as many weeks.

The total rig count fell to 763 this week—262 rigs higher than the rig count this time in 2021.

Oil rigs in the United States rose by 3 this week to 601. Gas rigs fell by 1, to 160. Miscellaneous rigs dropped 3.

The rig count in the Permian Basin fell by 1 to 346 this week. Rigs in the Eagle Ford stayed the same at 72. Oil and gas rigs in the Permian are 100 above where they were this time last year.

Primary Vision's Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells—a more frugal use of finances than drilling new wells—slipped back to 289 for week ending August 5, compared to 235 a year ago.

Crude oil production in the United States rose 100,000 bpd to an average 12.2 million bpd in the week ending August 5, according to the latest EIA estimates.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... -Week.html

[energy_isere]

U.S. Rig Count Stalls

By Julianne Geiger - Aug 19, 2022

The number of total active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 1 again this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published on Friday. It is the third decline in as many weeks.

The total rig count fell to 762 this week—259 rigs higher than the rig count this time in 2021.

Oil rigs in the United States were unchanged this week at 601. Gas rigs fell by 1, to 159. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 2.

The rig count in the Permian Basin fell by 1 to 345 this week. Rigs in the Eagle Ford stayed the same at 72. Oil and gas rigs in the Permian are 98 above where they were this time last year.

Primary Vision's Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells—a more frugal use of finances than drilling new wells—fell for the second week in a row to 285 for week ending August 12, compared to 238 a year ago.

Crude oil production in the United States also fell in the week ending August 12. U.S. crude oil production fell by 100,000 bpd to an average 12.1 million bpd, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates. This is up from 11.7 million bpd at the start of the year.
....................

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... talls.html

[energy_isere]

Oil Rig Count Climbs As Permian Drilling Picks Up

By Julianne Geiger - Aug 26, 2022, 12:15 PM CDT

The number of total active drilling rigs in the United States rose by 3 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published on Friday, interrupting a three-week decline.

The total rig count rose to 765 this week—257 rigs higher than the rig count this time in 2021.

Oil rigs in the United States rose by 4 this week, to 605. Gas rigs fell by 1, to 158. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 2.

The rig count in the Permian Basin rose by 3 to 348 this week. Rigs in the Eagle Ford fell by 2 to 70. Oil and gas rigs in the Permian are 99 above where they were this time last year.

Primary Vision's Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells—a more frugal use of finances than drilling new wells—fell for the third week in a row to 280 for week ending August 19, compared to 236 a year ago.

Crude oil production in the United States also fell in the week ending August 19. U.S. crude oil production fell by 100,000 bpd to an average 12 million bpd, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates. This is up from 11.7 million bpd at the start of the year.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... ks-Up.html

[energy_isere]

Biden Administration Urges Fuel-Export Cuts to Restock Northeast

August 27, 2022 EnergyNow Media
(Bloomberg)

The Biden administration is warning refiners that it may take “emergency measures” to address fuel exports as stockpiles of gasoline and diesel fuel remain near historically low levels in the Northeast.While East Coast gasoline and diesel inventories are well below normal, exports of US refined products are at an all-time high, the Energy Department wrote in a letter last week to refiners that included Exxon Mobil Corp., Valero Energy Corp., and Phillips 66.
“It is our hope that companies will proactively address this need,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm wrote in the letter, which was also sent to BP America, Chevron Corp., Marathon Petroleum Corp. and Shell Plc. “If that is not the case, the administration will need to consider additional federal requirements or other emergency measures.”

Emergency actions can be avoided if the industry prioritizes “building inventories during this critical window,” Granholm said in the letter, which was obtained by Bloomberg.

The Biden administration is effectively asking refiners to prioritize American consumers over maximizing profits by supplying fuel-starved Europe, which is facing an unprecedented energy crunch after the invasion of Ukraine triggered US sanctions on Russian oil supply. While US retail gasoline prices have eased after hitting a record nationwide average above $5 a gallon in June, the White House remains under pressure to tackle inflation ahead of the midterm elections.

US government officials said the administration isn’t actively considering export controls and the letter shouldn’t be construed as a direct threat to limit shipments abroad. An Energy Department official said emergency measures being considered include tapping a little-used emergency diesel fuel reserve, the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve located in New England, which contains a cache of 1 million barrels of ultra-low sulfur distillates.

https://energynow.com/2022/08/biden-adm ... northeast/

[tita]

Derniers chiffres mensuels de l'EIA pour la production de juin dernier.

La production a augmenté, passant de 11'615 kb/j à 11'816 kb/j, soit une augmentation de 201 kb/j. La production offshore a augmenté de 183 kb/j à 1791 kb/j ce qui fait que la production onshore a augmenté de 18 kb/j. Sur les 5 derniers mois, la production onshore a augmenté de 364 kb/j. Les estimations hebdomadaires étaient à 12'000 kb/j, une sur-estimation de 184 kb/j.

Sur les 12 derniers mois (juin. 2021-juin. 2022), la production US a augmenté de 460 kb/j.

Rien de neuf. Le creux de janvier a été rattrapé sur la production onshore, mais on reste à une production stable depuis novembre. Côté offshore, on peut noter qu'en août 2019 la production avait atteint 2'044 kb/j et qu'on ne s'en est plus tellement rapproché depuis.

[tita]

Baisse importante (-9) du nombre de machines de forage pétroliers aux USA. Hausse (+4) pour les forages gaziers.

Le plus surprenant, c'est dans le bassin permien où ça a diminué de 7. Perso, ça semble confirmer une stagnation qu'on observe depuis début juillet, où les forages pétroliers étaient à 595 unités, contre 596 actuellement. On reste loin des 888 forages pétroliers de mi-novembre 2018.

Dans le rapport hebdomadaire de l'EIA, la production US est aussi stagnante depuis début juillet. De même, on constate une baisse du stock de produits pétroliers aux USA, qui laisse présager que les prix de l'énergie vont rester à haut niveau pendant un bon moment encore.

[energy_isere]

Oil Rig Count Slides In Tough Week For Crude

By Julianne Geiger - Sep 09, 2022,

The number of total active drilling rigs in the United States dropped by 1 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published on Friday.

The total rig count fell to 759 this week—256 rigs higher than the rig count this time in 2021.

Oil rigs in the United States fell by 5 this week, to 591. Gas rigs rose by 4, to 166. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 2.

The rig count in the Permian Basin dropped by 2 to 340 this week. Rigs in the Eagle Ford stayed the same at 71. Oil and gas rigs in the Permian are 86 above where they were this time last year.

Primary Vision's Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells—a more frugal use of finances than drilling new wells—fell 5 to 282 for the week ending September 2, compared to 240 a year ago.

Crude oil production in the United States remains unchanged for the week ending September 2. U.S. crude oil production stayed at 12.1 million bpd for the second consecutive week, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates. U.S. production levels are up 400,000 bpd on the year, and up 2.1 million bpd versus a year ago.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... Crude.html

[tita]

Derniers chiffres mensuels de l'EIA pour la production de juillet dernier.

La production a légèrement augmenté, passant de 11'788 kb/j à 11'800 kb/j, soit une augmentation de 12 kb/j. La production offshore a augmenté de 10 kb/j à 1762 kb/j ce qui fait que la production onshore a augmenté de 2 kb/j. Sur les 5 derniers mois, la production onshore a augmenté de 337 kb/j. Les estimations hebdomadaires étaient à 12'100 kb/j, une sur-estimation de 300 kb/j.

Sur les 12 derniers mois (juillet. 2021-juillet. 2022), la production US a augmenté de 453 kb/j.

Toujours une production relativement stable depuis novembre 2021. Un truc aussi, c'est que le nombre de forages pétroliers était de 450 en novembre 2021, et il est désormais de 600 depuis juillet 2022 et n'augmente plus. C'est assez peu probable qu'on retourne à la production de novembre 2019 (13 Mb/j) de sitôt. Il faudrait une augmentation de 1.2 Mb/j, et ça prendrait plus de 2 ans au rythme actuel.

[energy_isere]

U.S. Oil Rig Count Jumps Amid Selloff In Crude

By Julianne Geiger - Oct 14, 2022

The number of total active drilling rigs in the United States rose by 7 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published on Friday.

The total rig count rose to 769 this week—226 rigs higher than the rig count this time in 2021.

Oil rigs in the United States rose by 8 this week, to 610. Gas rigs slipped by 1, to 157. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 2.

The rig count in the Permian Basin rose by 1 to 346 this week. Rigs in the Eagle Ford slipped by 1 to 71.Oil and gas rigs in the Permian are 79 above where they were this time last year.

Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells—a more frugal use of finances than drilling new wells—rose by 1 to 291 for the week ending October 7, compared to 284 a month ago and 263 a year ago.

Crude oil production in the United States had a disappointing week, particularly after a week of barb-trading between Saudi Arabia and the United States over oil production levels. U.S. crude production fell to 11.9 million bpd for the week ending October 7, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates. U.S. production levels are up just 200,000 bpd so far this year and up 600,000 bpd versus a year ago.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... Crude.html

[tita]

Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells—a more frugal use of finances than drilling new wells—rose by 1 to 291 for the week ending October 7, compared to 284 a month ago and 263 a year ago.

Une autre façon d'observer, c'est le DUC dans le rapport de l'eia, où le nombre de complétions est affiché. C'est différent du nombre de "Frac Spread" qui désigne le nombre d'équipes, ici c'est le nombre de complétions que ces équipes ont réalisé.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

Le nombre de forage a quasiment rejoint le nombre de complétions. Il y avait un grand nombre de DUC en juin 2020 (8'803), qui est descendu à 4'283 actuellement. Cette baisse s'est stabilisée, et le nombre de DUCs est au plus bas depuis 2013.

[energy_isere]

Baker Hughes Shows Weak U.S. Drilling Activity

By Julianne Geiger - Oct 28, 2022

The number of total active drilling rigs in the United States fell 3 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published on Friday.

The total rig count slipped to 768 this week—224 rigs higher than the rig count this time in 2021.

Oil rigs in the United States fell 2 this week, to 610. Gas rigs fell 1 to 156. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 2.

The rig count in the Permian Basin held steady again this week at 346. Rigs in the Eagle Ford fell 1 to 70. Granite Wash and Williston also saw a decrease of a single rig, while Cana Woodford saw a 2-rig gain. Arkoma Woodford saw a single rig gain.

Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells—a more frugal use of finances than drilling new wells—rose for the seventh week in a row, to 298 for the week ending October 21, from 295 in the previous week. This compares to 288 a month ago and 265 a year ago.

Crude oil production in the United States was unchanged in the week to October 21, at 12 million bpd, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates. U.S. production levels are up just 300,000 bpd so far this year and up 700,000 bpd versus a year ago.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... ivity.html