[Uranium] Ressources, production et consommation mondiale

[energy_isere]

suite de ce post du 21 dec 2024 viewtopic.php?p=2404172#p2404172

Mauritanie : Aura nomme Mohamed Sid'Ahmed DG des opérations sur sa mine d'uranium Tiris

Agence Ecofin 24 mars 2025

L'australien Aura Energy poursuit les efforts de développement de sa future mine d'uranium Tiris en Mauritanie, dont l’entrée en production est attendue d'ici 2027. La société compte sur le leadership de nouveaux cadres pour mener à bien ce projet.

La compagnie minière australienne Aura Energy a annoncé dans une note publiée ce lundi 24 mars la nomination de l'ingénieur mauritanien Mohamed Sid'Ahmed (photo) au poste de directeur général des opérations (GMO) pour son projet d'uranium Tiris. Ce nouveau développement survient dans un contexte où la société travaille à accélérer le développement de cet actif, qui est bien placé pour devenir la première mine d'uranium de ce pays sahélien.

Diplômé de l'École nationale supérieure des mines de Rabat (2002-2004), Mohamed Sid'Ahmed est déjà doté d'une certaine expérience dans la mise en œuvre de projets miniers clés, notamment en Afrique de l'Ouest. Jusqu'à sa nomination, il occupait en effet le poste de directeur général des opérations de la mine Goulamina de Léo Lithium au Mali. Auparavant, l'ingénieur a également tenu des postes de direction chez Kinross à la mine d'or de Tasiast, et pour les compagnies Teranga Gold Corporation et Endeavour Mining.

« De nationalité mauritanienne, cadre et ingénieur minier expérimenté, Mohamed apporte une grande expertise technique, opérationnelle et de gestion dans le cadre de projets nationaux et internationaux {...}. Sa nomination renforce le leadership opérationnel d'Aura alors que la société progresse vers la production » lit-on dans le communiqué.

Parallèlement à ce recrutement, notons qu'Aura Energy a aussi rapporté quelques avancées dans les travaux d'ingénierie et les efforts pour mobiliser les 230 millions USD nécessaires pour la construction de la future mine. À cet effet, on apprend notamment que les études hydrogéologiques approfondies réalisées sur le projet Tiris ont été achevées avec succès, mettant en évidence un potentiel d'approvisionnement hydrique suffisant pour soutenir les opérations de ce complexe.

Sur le volet du financement par ailleurs, Aura indique être en pourparlers avec une « banque de développement occidentale souveraine » pour obtenir un financement par emprunt pouvant couvrir 50 à 60% du coût total du projet. À l'étape actuelle, cette institution financière procède actuellement à des vérifications préalables, prévoyant une visite sur le site du projet en avril 2025 pour une éventuelle approbation du crédit.

La compagnie n'a néanmoins pas indiqué les pistes qu'elle envisage d'explorer pour mobiliser le reste des fonds. Cela pourrait prendre plus de temps que prévu, étant donné qu'Aura fait mention dans sa note d'un prolongement du calendrier de financement. On ignore quel impact cette décision aura sur le calendrier global du projet, alors que la décision finale d'investissement (FID) était attendue pour le 1er trimestre 2025.

Pour rappel, Aura prévoit actuellement de lancer la production d'uranium à Tiris en 2027. D'après le plan actuel du projet, l'opérateur prévoit de produire 2 millions de livres d'uranium sur une durée de vie de 25 ans. D'autres options de développement sont néanmoins en cours de planification, et pourraient voir la production annuelle d'environ 4 millions de livres sur 16 ans ou encore 3 millions de livres sur 18 ans.



Quoi qu'il en soit, la concrétisation de ce projet pourrait faire de la Mauritanie le deuxième producteur ouest-africain d'uranium, à un moment où l'énergie nucléaire bénéficie d'un regain d'intérêt à l'échelle mondiale. De quoi soutenir la diversification de l'industrie minière nationale, encore dominée par l'exploitation de l'or et du minerai de fer.

https://www.agenceecofin.com/nomination ... nium-tiris

la page de Aura Energy sur le projet Tiris : https://auraenergy.com.au/project-portf ... m-project/

il y a une vidéo de 5 mn qui présente le projet.

[energy_isere]

The Uranium Gap: Existing Resources Set To Run Dry By 2080s

Ricardo Goulart April 08, 2025.

As the world accelerates its transition toward low-carbon energy sources, nuclear power is experiencing a resurgence. Long praised for its ability to provide stable, emissions-free electricity, nuclear energy is now being reembraced by governments seeking to decarbonize without compromising reliability. But the global push for nuclear power is running headlong into a critical supply-side issue: uranium, the essential fuel for most reactors, is being consumed at a rate that far outpaces current exploration and mine development. Without major new discoveries and investment, currently identified uranium resources are forecast to be exhausted by the 2080s.


Current Uranium Resource Estimates

Global uranium reserves are classified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) into Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR) and Inferred Resources (IR). These categories represent deposits known through geological data and sampling, with varying degrees of certainty.

As of the latest IAEA/NEA "Red Book" publication, the world’s economically recoverable uranium resources—those that can be mined at costs below $130/kg—total approximately 6.1 million tonnes. When including less certain and more expensive resources, that figure rises modestly. Yet, under current consumption rates, even this extended resource base has a finite lifespan. With global reactors consuming roughly 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of uranium annually, and demand projected to grow, the depletion trajectory is clear.


Rising Demand from Nuclear Expansion

What makes this depletion timeline urgent is the rapid and widespread expansion of nuclear generation capacity. More than 60 reactors are currently under construction worldwide, with dozens more in planning. China, in particular, is leading the charge, targeting at least 150 new reactors over the next two decades. India, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, and several European and African nations are also ramping up nuclear ambitions.

Meanwhile, small modular reactors (SMRs) are gaining traction. Though smaller in scale, their potential for wide deployment in remote areas, industrial applications, and decentralized grids could further increase aggregate uranium demand.

This resurgence is driven by both climate imperatives and geopolitical considerations. As energy security rises on the policy agenda—particularly in the wake of gas supply disruptions—nuclear power is being viewed not just as a climate solution but as a strategic asset. However, this sharp increase in planned capacity has not yet been matched by a corresponding commitment to secure long-term fuel supply.


The 2080s Depletion Timeline

If uranium consumption continues on its current trajectory, identified global reserves could be largely exhausted by the 2080s. This assumes moderate reactor fleet expansion and conventional fuel cycle usage. In more aggressive nuclear growth scenarios—such as those outlined by the World Nuclear Association—the exhaustion point could arrive significantly earlier, particularly if no major new mines are developed and secondary supply sources (such as military stockpiles and re-enrichment tails) are depleted.

It’s important to recognize that mine depletion is not a sudden event but a gradual process. Production from existing mines will decline over time, increasing the urgency of finding and developing new sources well in advance of peak demand. The long timelines required for exploration, permitting, and mine construction mean that decisions made—or not made—today will determine supply availability decades from now.

Exploration and Supply Development Challenges

The global uranium sector has suffered from chronic underinvestment since the price crash that followed the Fukushima disaster in 2011. With prices languishing for much of the last decade, exploration budgets were slashed and many projects were shelved. Even as uranium prices have rebounded recently—driven by demand projections and geopolitical uncertainty—the pipeline of advanced projects remains thin.

Developing a new uranium mine typically takes 10 to 15 years, from initial exploration to commercial production. This timeline includes resource definition, environmental assessments, community engagement, licensing, and construction—each of which carries political and financial risk.

In jurisdictions such as Canada, Australia, and parts of Africa, permitting and regulatory uncertainty further complicate the outlook. In Kazakhstan, the world’s largest producer, geopolitical factors may increasingly affect the ability of Western utilities to secure long-term supply contracts.


Technological and Strategic Responses

To address the looming gap, several efforts are underway. Technological advances in geological modelling, remote sensing, and data analytics are helping companies identify previously overlooked deposits. Junior miners and mid-tier companies are revisiting previously uneconomic projects as uranium prices rise.

There is also renewed interest in reprocessing spent fuel and in fast reactor technologies that could extract more energy from uranium. However, these technologies remain limited by cost, political acceptance, and infrastructure readiness.

On the strategic front, governments and utilities are taking action. The United States has committed funding to support domestic uranium enrichment and conversion capabilities. European countries are stockpiling enriched uranium to reduce supply vulnerability. China is securing long-term supply through overseas joint ventures and off-take agreements.

Still, these efforts are patchwork in nature and do not yet match the scale of the challenge.

Implications for Energy Policy and Security

If the supply gap is not addressed, the implications could be far-reaching. Rising uranium prices could make nuclear projects less competitive compared to other low-carbon options. Fuel shortages could delay new reactor deployments or force early shutdowns. Countries heavily reliant on imported uranium may face strategic vulnerabilities akin to those experienced during oil and gas crises.

There is also the risk of geopolitical competition over uranium resources, especially in politically unstable regions. As with other critical minerals, uranium could become a tool of influence in broader strategic rivalries.

To avoid such outcomes, policymakers need to recognize uranium not merely as a commodity, but as a foundational input for long-term energy planning. This includes supporting exploration incentives, streamlining permitting, and facilitating investment in new mining projects.


Conclusion

The nuclear renaissance is well underway, but it may falter unless matched by a corresponding expansion in uranium supply. With currently identified resources expected to be exhausted by the 2080s—potentially sooner under accelerated nuclear adoption—the industry faces a significant challenge.

Addressing the uranium gap requires long-term thinking and immediate action. The lead times are long, the risks are real, and the stakes are high. For a world increasingly reliant on nuclear energy to meet its climate and security goals, the time to invest in the future of uranium is now.

https://www.gfmreview.com/commodities/t ... y-by-2080s

[energy_isere]

Invest now to secure long-term uranium future, Red Book says

Tuesday, 8 April 2025

The trend of declining uranium exploration and mine development expenditure has been reversed - but substantial investment in new mining projects will be essential to meet nuclear power generation projections to 2050 and beyond, according to the latest edition of the key OECD/IAEA joint report.



Uranium 2024: Resources, Production and Demand is the latest edition of the uranium reference produced jointly by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency. Commonly known as the Red Book, the first edition was published in 1965.

The data reported in the latest edition covers calendar years 2021 and 2022, drawn from 62 country reports on uranium exploration, resources, production and reactor-related requirements which are either prepared from officially reported government data and narratives, or by the secretariats of the two agencies. The report includes projections for nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through to 2050, and discussion of long-term uranium supply and demand issues. Some information for 2023 and 2024 is also included in its discussions.

Total global uranium resources are largely unchanged compared with the previous edition of the Red Book, with just more than 7.9 million tU of total identified resources recoverable at up to USD260/kgU. Australia continues to dominate world resources, with 28% of identified recoverable resources at up to USD130/kgU and 24% of the identified recoverable resources at up to USD260/kgU, followed by Kazakhstan and Canada. Globally, 95% of total identified resources in the USD130/kgU category, and more than 90% in the USD260/kgU category, is located in just 15 countries.

But the overall picture for exploration and mine development expenditures has changed dramatically, with a "persistent downward trend" that had been seen from 2015 to 2020 coming to an end. "Annual expenditures, which decreased to approximately USD380 million in 2020 from more than USD1.5 billion in the years prior to the downturn, recovered to USD800 million in 2022," the Red Book notes. "Preliminary data for 2023 expenditures suggest a further increase to USD840 million … Total expenditures reflect a response to the depressed uranium market that lasted from mid-2011, and a recent recovery that started in late-2020."

Decreased expenditures from 2015 to 2020 were due to persistently low uranium prices that slowed exploration and mine development projects. Rising uranium prices and increased interest in nuclear energy since 2020 have reversed that trend, and total exploration and mine development expenditures for 2021, 2022 and preliminary estimates for 2023 amongst the 27 reporting countries came to USD2.1 billion. Expenditure in six countries - Canada, China, Russia, India, Namibia and Uzbekistan - accounted for 90% of the total, with Canada alone accounting for 34%.

After five years of declining uranium production as major uranium-producing countries limited their output in response to a depressed uranium market, global uranium production also increased from 2020 to 2022, the report said.

Globally, 49,490 tU was produced in 17 countries in 2022 - a 4% increase on 2020 - and increased still further to 54,345 tU in 2023. Kazakhstan remained the world's largest producer, accounting for 43% of world production, followed by Canada, Namibia, Australia and Uzbekistan. In-situ leaching (ISL, also known as in-situ recovery) accounted for nearly 60% of global production in 2022, although the restart of the McArthur River underground mine in Canada meant that ISL's share of production for 2023 was around 23%.

Global nuclear capacity is expected to increase in the coming years as energy demand grows, the report found, with growing electricity demand and also alignment with national energy security objectives among the key factors shaping this growth. East Asia is projected to experience the largest increase, with additional capacity between 90% and 220% of the 111 GWe of existing nuclear in the region at the end of 2022.

"Security of supply will be essential for further nuclear capacity expansion and will, in turn, result in greater uranium demand," the report says. The current uranium resource base is sufficient to meet even high-demand projections to 2050 and beyond, but cumulative demand could exceed the world's current known resource base by the 2080s under the high-demand scenario and the 2110s under the low-demand scenario.
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https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/arti ... -book-says