Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Toute l'acualité, discutée à la lumière de la déplétion des réserves d'hydrocarbures.

Modérateurs : Rod, Modérateurs

Avatar de l’utilisateur
energy_isere
Modérateur
Modérateur
Messages : 57394
Inscription : 24 avr. 2005, 21:26
Localisation : Les JO de 68, c'était la
Contact :

Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par energy_isere » 01 janv. 2019, 14:42

Bloomberg voit un prix du baril à 70 dollars en 2019.
$70 Oil Could Be Right Around The Corner

By Tim Daiss - Dec 31, 2018,

Oil markets have always been cyclical, and now even more so with advanced electronic trading, more speculation (which often results in wider oil price swings) and more producers, including the resurgence of U.S. oil production, now reaching over 11 million barrels per day. Added to the cocktail of uncertainty are also a myriad of geopolitical and economic factors, including ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, angst of U.S. Federal Reserve policy, and wars in Syria, Yemen and elsewhere, which make it increasingly difficult to forecast the direction for future oil prices.

This dynamic has proven true over the past two-and-a-half months as market pundits have watched (often in amazement) how global oil prices reached multi-year highs in October, only to quickly plunge by 40 percent to date. Prices for global oil benchmark, London-traded Brent crude futures were trading in the mid-$80’s range in early October, while U.S. oil benchmark, NYMEX-traded West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were hovering in the mid $70’s-range, a comfortable price point for U.S. shale oil producers, and around $25per barrel above the average oil production break-even point for shale producers.

However, amid all of the dismal economic news and problematic geopolitical developments, a group of bankers are sounding optimistic once again over future oil price forecasts. On Friday, Bloomberg said that many of the world’s largest banks are forecasting a rebound in oil prices next year as fears of a recession prove misplaced.

According to a Bloomberg survey of oil analysts, Brent will average $70 a barrel in 2019, almost a third higher than its price on Thursday. Michael Cohen, head of energy and commodities research at Barclays Plc in New York, said “we could even see something similar to a V-shaped recovery next year, on two very important conditions. One, that the reduction in OPEC exports leads to a reduction in inventories. And two, that we don’t see a further deterioration in macroeconomic conditions.”

The Bloomberg report added that despite a recent darkening outlook for the global economy amid prolonged trade disputes between the U.S. and China, and as the U.S. Federal Reserve embarks on tightening monetary policy, most commentators aren’t seeing an actual recession biting the oil market next year. The median forecast of 24 oil analysts in the Bloomberg survey projects that Brent crude futures will average exactly $70 a barrel in 2019. The price on Thursday was about $53.50 while the average so far in 2018 has been about $72. Meanwhile, the median forecast for WTI is $61.13. WTI futures traded at about $45.27 on Monday.
......
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/7 ... orner.html

Avatar de l’utilisateur
energy_isere
Modérateur
Modérateur
Messages : 57394
Inscription : 24 avr. 2005, 21:26
Localisation : Les JO de 68, c'était la
Contact :

Re: Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par energy_isere » 07 janv. 2019, 23:08

Goldman Sachs revoit a la baisse le prix du baril pour 2019.
Why Goldman Just Drastically Slashed Its Oil Price Prediction

By Irina Slav - Jan 07, 2019,

Goldman Sachs reduced its outlook for oil prices this year citing abundant supply, Bloomberg reports, quoting a note to clients.

The investment bank’s analysts now expect Brent crude to average US$62.50 a barrel this year, down from an earlier projection of US$70 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate, according to Goldman Sachs, will average US$55.50 a barrel, compared with an earlier estimate of US$64.50 a barrel.

The price outlook revision was motivated by expectations of another glut despite the OPEC+ production cuts aimed at removing 1.2 million bpd from the global market and continued growth in U.S. shale oil production, as well as higher output in Brazil and Canada.

The bank’s analysts said, with regard to their expectations of oversupply, that OPEC produced a lot more crude oil in the last months of 2018, which means the cartel begins 2019 with more total production than it had at the beginning of last year, when larger production cuts were in effect.

What’s more, the Goldman analysts noted, pipeline bottlenecks in the Permian, which have pressured WTI previously, will likely clear faster than expected, driving a price rise in the U.S. benchmark.

“We expect that the oil market will balance at a lower marginal cost in 2019 given higher inventory levels to start the year, the persistent beat in 2018 shale production growth amidst little observed cost inflation, weaker than previously expected demand growth expectations (even at our above consensus forecasts) and increased low-cost production capacity,” analyst Daniel Courvalin wrote in the note.

The forecast update, however, comes days after the latest quarterly Dallas Fed Energy Survey revealed business activity in the U.S. oil and gas sector slowed down considerably in the fourth quarter of the year as benchmark oil prices plunged by over a quarter, suggesting shale oil production growth may slow down in 2019.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... ction.html

Avatar de l’utilisateur
CP3
Gaz naturel
Gaz naturel
Messages : 806
Inscription : 21 janv. 2007, 20:03
Localisation : Vaucluse
Contact :

[Chiffres] Ça monte ! (en dollar)

Message par CP3 » 21 janv. 2019, 12:09

https://www.challenges.fr/economie/le-b ... 019_637476

A peine cela avait baissé , on nous reparle déjà d' un risque de forte hausse Le tout avec une problématique de pic pétrolier pas trop encore suggéré .



"Le prix du pétrole reverra sans doute les 100 dollars en fin d’année 2019"

Par Guillaume Allier le 19.01.2019


INTERVIEW - Pour Benjamin Louvet, gérant matières premières chez OFI Asset Management, le prix du baril de pétrole devrait retrouver des niveaux records en fin d'année 2019 ou début 2020.
*** Vu que ca parle du prix du pétrole à un an, c'est déplacé dans ce fil. ***

Avatar de l’utilisateur
energy_isere
Modérateur
Modérateur
Messages : 57394
Inscription : 24 avr. 2005, 21:26
Localisation : Les JO de 68, c'était la
Contact :

Re: Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par energy_isere » 06 avr. 2019, 10:48

Fitch: Oil To Average $62.50 In 2020

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 05, 2019

Brent Crude prices are expected to average $62.50 a barrel next year, down from $65 this year as slowing global economic growth could impact oil demand growth, Dmitry Marinchenko, senior director at Fitch Ratings, told Reuters in an interview published on Friday.

Fitch sees Brent Crude prices falling further down in coming years, to average $57.50 a barrel by 2022.

According to the ratings agency, global economic growth will slow down to 2.8 percent this year and next, compared to 3.2-percent growth for 2018.

“If the global growth slowdown becomes more pronounced, or even if recession materialises, then demand for oil could fall sharply, which is the main risk for global oil prices,” Marinchenko told Reuters.

Just before OPEC and allies decided in December to launch a new round of production cuts to rebalance the market and support oil prices, Fitch said that “we believe that supply controls will support medium-term oil prices in the range of USD60-USD65 a barrel for Brent crude. In the longer term, we continue to expect prices to fall below USD60/bbl driven by the falls to marginal producers' full-cycle costs.”

At the beginning of December, Fitch expected Brent to average $62.50 a barrel in 2020 and $60 per barrel in 2021, reflecting the rating agency’s expectations that OPEC and its Russia-led allies “will manage output to keep average prices above USD60/bbl in the medium term, although its ability to secure prices above USD70/bbl may be limited by US pressure.”

Early on Friday, Brent Crude was just below the $70 mark—at $69.11, down by 0.42 percent on the day at 06:35 a.m. EDT. WTI Crude was down 0.21 percent at $61.97.

OPEC and partners are meeting in June to review their pact, and according to Fitch’s Marinchenko, the future of the agreement will largely depend on how much supply Venezuela and Iran will be providing to the market at the time. Quotas may need to be revised and readjusted, as oil production in Venezuela will continue to drop, Marinchenko told Reuters.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... -2020.html

Avatar de l’utilisateur
mobar
Hydrogène
Hydrogène
Messages : 9062
Inscription : 02 mai 2006, 12:10
Localisation : Essonne

Re: Le futur prix du baril dans la boule de cristal

Message par mobar » 06 avr. 2019, 17:53

Je parie pour un pétrole à moins de 5$/bl en 2100
Il sera remplacé par l'électricité et l'hydrogène renouvelables pour l'énergie et la mobilité et par la biomasse pour les applications en carbochimie

Les dernières utilisations seront captées par les membres de la secte des Oléocéniens qui en feront un usage immodéré lors de rassemblements de 4X4 pétaradants
Ceci est mon sang!
Amen
"C'est quand il n'y a plus d'espoir qu'il ne faut désespérer de rien" Sénèque
https://youtu.be/0pK01iKwb1U

Répondre