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World will face oil crunch ‘in five years’

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mrlargo a écrit :et pendant ce temps, la presse française continue de ronronner...

Mathieu G. a écrit :y'a eu un supplément sur le pétrole dans libé l'année dernière. Il était titré "Vive le pétrole cher"

SuperCarotte a écrit : Et bien... que de progrés en quelques mois (voir même quelques semaines), on m'aurait annoncé tout cela y'a même pas un an je l'aurais pas cru

MrLargo a écrit :et pendant ce temps, la presse française continue de ronronner...

Le Monde a écrit :Les pays consommateurs en sont largement responsables. Ils ne veulent pas se lancer dans une politique d'efficacité énergétique, pourtant la moins coûteuse. C'est une priorité absolue. Il faut notamment prendre des mesures sévères dans le secteur des transports comme la surtaxation des grosses cylindrées, la réduction des 4 × 4, les limitations de vitesse...

Le monde a écrit :Je ne crois pas aux analyses des tenants du "peak oil". Le fondement de leur théorie, c'est de dire que l'on ne trouve plus de gisements géants. Pourquoi ? Parce que les réserves sont dans des pays où les compagnies nationales ont le monopole. Pourquoi voulez-vous, aux cours du pétrole actuels, que la Saudi Aramco fasse de l'exploration-production ? Les réserves géologiques restent très abondantes, mais se trouvent dans des régions fermées aux investissements occidentaux, comme le Moyen-Orient, ou de moins en moins ouvertes, comme la Russie et le Venezuela.

Oil and gas may run short by 2015, say industry experts

22 July 2007 The Independant : http://environment.independent.co.uk/cl ... 790960.ece

Humanity is approaching an unprecedented crisis when not enough oil and gas will be produced to keep industrial civilisation running, the world's top oilmen warned last week.

The warning – which is being hailed as a "tipping point" on both sides of the Atlantic – marks the first time that the industry has accepted that it may soon no longer be able to meet demand for its products. In Facing the Hard Truths about Energy, it gives authoritative support to concern about impending shortages, following a similar alert by the International Energy Agency less than two weeks ago.

The 420-page report, the most comprehensive study ever carried out into the industry, has been produced by the National Petroleum Council, a body of 175 authorities that reports to the US government. It includes the heads of the world's big oil companies including ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Occidental Petroleum, Shell and BP.

It is also remarkable for the conversion of its chairman, Lee Raymond, the recently retired chief executive of ExxonMobil, who led opposition against action to tackle global warming, and became environmentalists' most prominent bogeyman. The report argues for "an effective global framework" to manage emissions of carbon dioxide – "incorporating all major emitters" – and urges the US to cut the pollution that causes climate change.

The report concludes that "the global supply of oil and natural gas from the conventional sources ... is unlikely to meet ... growth in demand over the next 25 years". It says that "many observers think that 80 per cent of existing oil production will need to be replaced by 2030" to keep up present supplies "in addition to volumes required to meet existing demand." But, it adds, there are "accumulating risks to replacing current production and increasing supplies".

Though vast amounts of oil and gas remain underground, "complex challenges" and "global uncertainties" are likely to put an end to "the sufficient, reliable and economic energy supplies upon which people depend". And the crunch could come sooner, with oil production becoming "a significant challenge as early as 2015". This chimes with the International Energy Agency's prediction that oil supplies could become "extremely tight" in five years.

The predictions should send a shiver down humanity's collective spine as a shortage of oil and gas has been predicted to cause industrial collapse, market crashes, resource wars and a rise in poverty. Some forecast that fascist regimes will rise out of the chaos.

Chris Skrebowski, editor of the Energy Institute's Petroleum Review, said the report's publication showed the industry "'fessing up that it really has a problem on its hands". Until now, he said, "companies, full of share options, have been terrified of frightening the markets" by revealing the truth.

The report says the fuel efficiency of cars should be increased "at the maximum rate possible" and there should be a crackdown on 4x4s. It calls for "aggressive energy efficiency standards for buildings, and measures to "set an effective cost for emitting carbon dioxide" to combat global warming.

Les éléments combustibles de l'hydrogène

Les éléments combustibles de l'hydrogène nous fourniraient une source d'énergie permanente, propre et renouvelable, puisqu'ils combinent chimiquement l'hydrogène et l'oxygène pour produire de l'électricité, de l'eau et de la chaleur. Toutefois, la difficulté est qu'il n'y a pas assez d'hydrogène pour tout le monde et que les quelques moyens propres de le produire sont coûteux.