oleocene.org

tita a écrit : ↑

09 juil. 2025, 18:37

USA:
Production pétrole 2024: 13.21 Mb/j (13.44 Mb/j en décembre 2024)
Production pétrole 2025: 13.37 Mb/j (13.48 Mb/j en décembre 2025)
Production pétrole 2026: 13.37 Mb/j (13.25 Mb/j en décembre 2026)

Monde
2018: 100.43/99.7 (production/consommation en Mb/j)
2019: 100.25/100.26
2020: 93.85/91.7 (Confinement)
2021: 95.63/96.63 (remontée)
2022: 100.18/99.49 (plus de confinement)
2023: 102.21/101.85
2024: 102.80/102.74
2025: 104.60/103.54
2026; 105.72/104.59

USA EIA Reveals Latest USA Crude Oil Production Forecast

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone Staff | Monday, July 21, 2025


The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed its latest U.S. crude oil production forecast in its July short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month.

In its July STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, will average 13.37 million barrels per day across 2025 and 2026. The STEO highlighted that this output came in at 13.21 million barrels per day in 2024.

The EIA forecast in its July STEO that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.36 million barrels per day in the third quarter of this year, 13.43 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 13.42 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, 13.48 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.33 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.26 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

.......................

tita a écrit : ↑

21 déc. 2024, 08:25

Monde:
2024 Production/Consommation tout liquide: 102.52 Mb/j / 102.86 Mb/j
2025 Production/Consommation tout liquide: 104.18 Mb/j / 104.48 Mb/j

USA:
Production pétrole 2024: 13.24 Mb/j (13.62 Mb/j en décembre 2024)
Production pétrole 2025: 13.52 Mb/j (13.63 Mb/j en décembre 2025)

2018: 100.43/99.7 (production/consommation en Mb/j)
2019: 100.25/100.26
2020: 93.85/91.7 (Confinement)
2021: 95.68/97.53 (remontée)
2022: 100.17/100.05 (plus de confinement)
2023: 102.02/102.15
2024: 102.52/102.86
2025: 104.18/104.48

EIA Reveals Latest USA Oil, Gas Proved Reserves Figures

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone Staff | Monday, June 30, 2025

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed its latest U.S. crude oil and natural gas proved reserves figures in a report posted on its site recently.

According to the report, which includes data up to 2023, U.S. crude oil and lease condensate proved reserves decreased 3.9 percent year over year from 2022, from 48.3 billion barrels to 46.4 billion barrels.

North Dakota crude oil and lease condensate reserves decreased 12.3 percent from 2022, the report showed, highlighting that, at 611 million barrels, this was the largest annual net decline reported among all states. The second largest net decline of oil reserves occurred in Alaska, according to the report, which pointed out that the state saw an 11.4 percent, or 384 million barrel, drop.

New Mexico crude oil and lease condensate proved reserves increased 6.1 percent from 2022 to 2023, the report highlighted. At 380 million barrels, this was the largest net increase in 2023, the EIA report revealed.

The report also showed that U.S. crude oil and lease condensate production increased 7.8 percent year over year from 2022 to 2023.

Natural Gas

Proved reserves of U.S. natural gas decreased 12.6 percent year over year, from 691.0 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) to 603.6 Tcf, the EIA report stated, adding that this was the first annual decrease in U.S. natural gas reserves since 2020.

Alaska saw the largest annual net decline among all states in 2023, according to the report, which revealed natural gas proved reserves in the state decreased 22.7 percent, or 28.5 Tcf. Texas had the second largest net decline in proved reserves of natural gas, according to the report, which revealed that the state’s proved reserves drop was 12.6 percent, or 21.4 Tcf.

Montana reported the largest annual net increase in proved reserves of natural gas from 2022 to 2023, the report highlighted, revealing the state’s proved reserves rise came in at 11.2 percent, or 70 billion cubic feet.

The report went on to point out that U.S. natural gas production increased 3.4 percent in 2023.

Preparation, Definition
.........................

US Oil Production to Peak in 2027, Natural Gas by 2032: EIA
By Andrew Topf - Apr 16, 2025,

> Despite doubling per well output since 2019, the Permian’s rig rate gains are slowing and decline curves are steepening, meaning producers must “run faster to stay in place,”

> EIA: The U.S. is forecast to hit a 14 million bpd oil peak in 2027.

> EIA: natural gas to peak at 119 BCFD in 2032

.........................

tita a écrit : ↑

14 juin 2024, 10:25

Petit récap en milieu d'année sur les prédictions de l'EIA.

Monde:
2024 Production/Consommation tout liquide: 102.57 Mb/j / 102.99 Mb/j
2025 Production/Consommation tout liquide: 104.72 Mb/j / 104.52 Mb/j

USA:
Production pétrole 2024: 13.24 Mb/j (13.55 Mb/j en décembre 2024)
Production pétrole 2025: 13.7 Mb/j (13.92 Mb/j en décembre 2025)

L'EIA s'attend à une augmentation de la consommation plutôt importante (+1 Mb/j en 2024, +1.53Mb/j en 2025), ainsi qu'une production mondiale qui suivrait. Côté US, elle s'attend à un ralentissement en 2024 (+310 kb/j), et une hausse un peu plus marquée en 2025 (460kb/j).

Je vais essayer de comparer ces chiffres avec ceux qu'on aura dans 6 mois, en décembre.

India is Leading Source of Oil Demand Growth in EIA Forecast

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone Staff | Friday, November 22, 2024

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said India has emerged as the leading source of growth in global oil consumption in its forecast.

“Over 2024 and 2025, India accounts for 25 percent of total oil consumption growth globally,” the EIA noted in its November STEO.

The organization highlighted in the STEO that it expects consumption of liquid fuels in India to increase by 0.3 million barrels per day both this year and next year, “driven by rising demand for transportation fuels”.

“We expect an increase of 1.0 million barrels per day in global consumption of liquid fuels in 2024,” the EIA revealed in its November STEO.

“We expect even more growth next year, with global oil consumption rising by 1.2 million barrels per day,” it added.

The EIA pointed out in its STEO that non-OECD countries drive almost all global oil consumption growth in its forecast, noting that much of this growth is in Asia.

The organization projected that China’s petroleum and liquid fuels consumption will grow by less than 0.1 million barrels per day in 2024 “before recovering to almost 0.3 million barrels per day 2025”.

“We have revised China’s 2024 consumption downward several times over the past year,” the EIA highlighted in the STEO.

“In China, rapidly expanding electric vehicle ownership, rising use of liquefied natural gas for trucking goods, and decelerating economic growth have limited consumption growth for transportation fuels,” it added.
................................

EIA: Led By Permian, US Oil Output to Grow by 500K B/D in 2025
Rig counts are down since 2023, but well productivity is marching forward.

August 22, 2024 By Trent Jacobs

The US is on track to produce an average of 13.7 million B/D of crude oil in 2025—an increase of approximately 500,000 B/D over this year’s projected average.

The forecast comes from the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short-term energy outlook report.

The report highlights that the growth in productivity is expected despite the ongoing decline in the number of active drilling rigs across the US.

This is largely because the engine of US growth, the prolific Permian Basin shared between Texas and New Mexico, continues to power ahead.

The Permian is home to nearly double the number of rigs in operation compared to the rest of the Lower 48 states combined—313 rigs in the Permian vs. 165 elsewhere, according to the EIA. At the beginning of 2023, those numbers stood at 352 and 242 , respectively.

EIA data also show that as of July new Permian wells were generating a combined 433,000 B/D in their first month of production, which was more than enough to offset declines from older wells.

Natural gas production is following a similar trend, with new wells in the region yielding 780,000 MMscf/D in their first month.

“Growing well productivity suggests that operators in the Permian are successfully implementing more advanced drilling and completion techniques, including longer lateral lengths, optimized well spacing, and enhanced fracturing designs,” the EIA concluded.

The EIA forecasts a 430,000 B/D increase in Permian oil production from 2023 levels, reaching 6.3 million B/D by the end of this year. With further productivity gains anticipated, Permian output could slow but is still expected to rise by another 300,000 B/D in 2025.
......................................

The projections are mixed for the other two major oil basins in the US.

The Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas should see production decline from 1.16 million B/D in 2023 to 1.1 million B/D in 2024, a 5% decrease. However, the trend may reverse in 2025 as the EIA forecasts a 4.5% increase to 1.15 million B/D.

North Dakota’s Bakken Shale is already on the rebound with oil production increasing almost 5% from 2023 to an average of 1.28 million B/D in 2024. That figure may grow another 3% next year to 1.32 million B/D.

The EIA also expects the Federal Gulf of Mexico to see a mixed trend, with production shrinking by 3.7% from 1.87 million B/D in 2023 to 1.8 million B/D in 2024. A recovery of 2.8% to 1.85 million B/D is forecast in 2025.

In its latest short term energy outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its U.S. crude oil production forecast for 2024.

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone Staff | Friday, June 21, 2024

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its U.S. crude oil production forecast for 2024.

The EIA now sees total U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, averaging 13.24 million barrels per day this year. In its previous May STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil output would average 13.20 million barrels per day.

Of the 13.24 million barrel per day production figure in the EIA’s June STEO, Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, take the largest share, with 11.02 million barrels per day, the STEO showed. The Permian region dominates Lower 48 states production, with 6.31 million barrels per day, followed by the Bakken region, with 1.30 million barrels per day, and the Eagle Ford region, with 1.08 million barrels per day, the STEO outlined.

The Appalachia region is forecast to produce 0.16 million barrels per day this year and the Haynesville region is forecast to produce 0.03 million barrels per day this year, the STEO revealed. The rest of the Lower 48 states are projected to produce 2.14 million barrels per day, according to the STEO, which pointed out that regional production is based on geographic regions and not geologic formations.

The Federal Gulf of Mexico is anticipated to produce 1.81 million barrels per day in 2024 and Alaska is forecast to produce 0.41 million barrels per day this year, the report outlined.

Total U.S. crude oil production is anticipated to average 13.17 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.33 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.50 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, according to the report.
..........................