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IHS Energy Acquires Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA)
Move Creates Global Powerhouse for Strategic Energy Insight and Analysis

Wednesday, September 1, 2004

IHS Energy, the leading global source of oil and gas information, analysis and software announced today it has acquired Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), the preeminent strategic knowledge advisor to the world’s energy industry and to financial institutions and governments.
“This powerful combination will create a depth and range of analytical capability that does not currently exist,” said Ron Mobed, president and COO of IHS Energy. “Together, IHS Energy and CERA will build upon our global expertise and resources to provide comprehensive advisory services to the energy industry — from global information and operations support, to market insight and strategy.”
“Today’s energy industry faces challenges in new competition, evolving markets, changing regulatory regimes and new technologies,” said Daniel Yergin, chairman of CERA. “We see a definitive shift based upon growing demand, the emergence of major new consuming countries, the need for new supplies, and environmental requirements — underlined by the fact that the world oil market is tighter today than it was at the beginning of the 1973 oil crisis. By bringing IHS Energy and CERA together, we are creating a unique, independent, broadly based partnership that will enable companies to address these challenges with the most timely, precise and actionable analysis and data available.”
Yergin will become a member of the executive leadership of IHS Energy and will continue to serve as chairman of CERA, which will maintain its focus on delivering thought-leadership, strategic insights and analysis of market fundamentals for companies and organizations in the global oil, natural gas and electric power industries.
“CERA has built a unique leadership position across the entire energy spectrum, and we are committed to supporting and enhancing its distinctive mission,” said Mobed. “IHS Energy and CERA together form the largest, most geographically complete, and most intellectually strong partnership under one umbrella. We are proud to be joining forces, and look forward to making an even greater contribution to the growth and productivity of the energy industry worldwide.”
"The timing of this merger is based upon our common view of the needs ahead,” said Yergin. “We have great respect for IHS Energy’s global capabilities, its commitment to meeting the needs of the energy industry, and its core contribution to decision-making in the oil industry worldwide. This new partnership of IHS Energy and CERA provides the capabilities to meet the growing knowledge requirements of the oil industry, the newly emerging global gas business, the electric power industry and the financial community.”

GillesH38 a écrit :je signale en passant que les scénarios du CERA pour le pétrole sont à peu près ceux du GIEC. Méchants d'un coté, gentils de l'autre ? ils disent la même chose....

energy_isere a écrit :Aucune réaction dans ce forum sur le CERA ?

Pas grave d' autres y pensent, comme dans LeBlogEnergie.

Dans un scénario improbable de consommation débridée, le CERA ne voit aucun risque de pénurie de pétrole jusqu'en 2030

Par Raymond Bonnaterre le 24 novembre 2009 LeBlogEnergie

http://www.leblogenergie.com/2009/11/da ... %A9tr.html

Dans un scénario improbable de consommation débridée, le CERA ne voit aucun risque de pénurie de pétrole jusqu'en 2030

Par Raymond Bonnaterre le 24 novembre 2009 LeBlogEnergie

IHS CERA: Oil Supply To Grow Through 2030, Then Struggle

HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--Global oil capacity will grow over the next 20 years but after that supply may not meet demand, according to a study released Tuesday by IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

Capacity could grow as much as 115 million barrels a day, or 25% over current levels, according to study of more than 100,000 projects worldwide.

"Post-2030 could struggle to meet but this would take the form of a decades-long "undulating plateau," rather than a sharp fall," the report said.

The peak oil theory, the idea that the world will run out of oil, is a controversial one.

The Guardian newspaper in the U.K. reported last week that a whistleblower has accused the International Energy Agency of underplaying the prospect of an oil shortage.

The unnamed official claimed the agency was bowing to pressure from the U.S. to downplay the depletion of oil reserves to avoid triggering panic buying, the Guardian reported.

The debate over peak oil rages on. The New York Times’ Green Inc. blog discussed Tuesday the latest report from IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a consulting firm with a historically optimistic view of oil resources. According to the report, released this week, the firm predicts that oil supplies will be on the rise over the next two decades, then plateau and remain flat for a couple more decades after that. More specifically, CERA shows how oil supplies will reach 115 million barrels per day (bpd) around 2030, up from today’s rate of 92 million bpd.

IHS analysts put together their forecast based on production data obtained from more than 450 fields around the world, including both OPEC nations and companies slated to tap into new resources. Their conclusions are based on three main findings:

1) The average rate of decline is far less than many pessimists assume,
around 4.5 percent
2) 60 percent of the world’s oil comes from 550 “so-called giant oil fields,”
which are in no danger of suddenly drying up
3) The world’s oil endowment, or how much oil there is in the world, is far
bigger than peak oil theorists allow for

But perhaps the most crucial finding of the whole report is that future oil production will be driven by the “above ground elements of the equation.”

“Looking ahead, we can see that the upstream industry faces many challenges,” said Peter Jackson, the study’s main author. “The longer-term problem lies not below ground, but in obtaining the investment and resources that the industry will need to grow supply significantly from current levels.”

What this basically means is that the supply of oil itself is not going to dry up and disappear, but rather that oil production will be hampered by geopolitical constraints. Future problems in the oil world will stem from limited opportunities to invest in new supply, limited access to the necessary technology to reach said supply, and political tug-of-wars. In other words, it may be in the ground, but it may not be practical to obtain. It’s the idea of “practical peak oil.”

As HeatingOil.com has reported frequently over the last month, opinions on peak oil are all over the place. 70 percent of geologists at the Petroleum Geology Conference recently said peak oil was still a cause for concern, while veteran commodities trader and analyst Stephen Schork thinks it’s a political phenomenon, much like CERA. The International Energy Agency says peak oil won’t happen for a good long time, but have also been accused recently of inflating their numbers.

So what’s the real scoop? Sadly, even if there is enough oil in the ground, some of it might very well be impossible to get to without an obscene amount of money or cost to people and the environment. We likely have more than a few minutes before severe oil shortages are a reality, but it seems like developing alternative forms of energy would be in everyone’s best interest.

Time and the Latest CERA Report: Why 2030 for the Peak?

Oil Demand Has Peaked in Developed Nations, Never to Return -- Report

Reduced petroleum demand in developed nations could make their economic growth less vulnerable to oil price shocks, the report states.

Nonetheless, global oil demand is still expected to grow, overall, driven by China and other developing nations as the world economy recovers.

But demand for oil that has fallen in recent years in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, nations won't be made up, the analysts say.

"The economic downturn has been masking a larger trend in the oil demand of developed countries," said Daniel Yergin, the company's chairman. "The fact is that OECD oil demand has been falling since late 2005, well before the Great Recession began."

The biggest reason, the group says, is that oil demand in the transportation sector -- which is the United States' dominant use of oil and accounts for 60 percent of OECD petroleum demand -- is flattening.

The trend has been noticed elsewhere, as well. Exxon Mobil Corp. CEO Rex Tillerson said this month that U.S. gasoline demand peaked in 2007.

The Cambridge Energy Research Associates, or CERA, analysis cites several reasons why demand in developed nations -- which accounts for slightly more than half the world's total -- won't recover. Among them: Car ownership rates have reached "saturation," while populations are aging and population growth ranges from low to negative.

Also, OECD governments, driven by global warming and energy security worries, have tightened fuel efficiency standards, while high prices in recent years have also pushed consumers away from gas guzzlers.

In the United States, the Obama administration plans to implement rules that push corporate average fuel economy, or CAFE, standards to a fleetwide average of 35.5 miles per gallon by 2016, four years ahead of the schedule Congress laid out in a 2007 energy law.

Use of alternative fuels like ethanol has also grown.

"New technologies such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and next-generation biofuels could also have a greater impact in the future," the report states.

Global demand will nonetheless grow, fueled mostly by developing nations, CERA finds. The company forecasts world demand to increase from 83.8 million barrels per day this year to 89.1 mbd in 2014.

"Just 900,000 bpd [barrels per day] of growth is expected to come from OECD countries, just a fraction of the 3.7 million bpd of demand lost over the course of 2005 to 2009," the report states.

But CERA cautions that developed nations will hardly be through with oil anytime soon. The demand reduction in OECD countries between the 2005 peak and 2030 is expected to be "fairly modest," it states.

Demand for oil in developed nations peaked in 2005, and changing demographics and improved motor-vehicle efficiency guarantee that it won't hit those heights again, IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates says in a new report.

Raminagrobis a écrit :Je pense qu'un certain nombre de lobbys n'admettront jamais le peak oil. Ils diront que c'est l'économie qui a fait baisser la demande et par là la production.

Il y en a encore qui nie la réalité du pic des USA (après 40 ans!) en disant que la production américaine a baissé à cause des écolos qui voulaient pas qu'on fore au large de la Californie, ou à cause des compagnies pétrolières qui ont choisit d'arrêter de forer aux US pour aller ailleurs (ce qui est particulièrement du grand n'importnawak puisqu'on fore encore aujourd'hui chaque année plus de puits aux USA que n'importe où ailleurs dans le monde).

Les USA n'ont pas franchi leur pic. D'ailleurs, quand ils le désireront (et que les écolos seront internés), leur production remontera.

Raminagrobis a écrit : Il y en a encoore qui nie la réalité du pic des USA (après 40 ans!) en disant que la production américaine a baissé à cause des écolos qui voulaient pas qu'on fore au large de la Californie,