Cera : pas de pic prévisible avant 2020

[GillesH38]

Je parie qu'ils ne tiendront pas le pari !

[energy_isere]

Je parie qu'ils ne tiendront pas le pari !

En effet.

Revirement énorme des prévisions du CERA

CERA Official Acknowledges “Peak Oil is Here”

Speaking at the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) in Washington DC on 8 June, CERA Global Oil Group Managing Director Jim Burkhard began and ended his talk by stating that “CERA acknowledges that peak oil is here, you heard it from a CERA person.”

Mr. Burkhard spoke at a CSIS session on “Transforming the Transportation Sector: Energy Security, Climate Change and Transportation”.

During his presentation, Mr. Burkhard explained that in acknowledging that peak oil is here, CERA’s interpretation is that US gasoline demand peaked in 2008 and is expected to decline in future years. He also stated that CERA maintains its position that the reasons for US liquid fuel demand having peaked are economic and geopolitical in their nature, rather than in any way driven by geologic factors.

ASPO-USA Advisory Board member Scott Pugh was present and provided this report.

Mr. Burkhard’s presentation should be available soon under “Events” at:

http://www.csis.org/researchfocus/energy/

http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/0 ... l-is-here/

[Alain75]

“CERA acknowledges that peak oil is here, you heard it from a CERA person.”



During his presentation, Mr. Burkhard explained that in acknowledging that peak oil is here, CERA’s interpretation is that US gasoline demand peaked in 2008 and is expected to decline in future years. He also stated that CERA maintains its position that the reasons for US liquid fuel demand having peaked are economic and geopolitical in their nature, rather than in any way driven by geologic factors.

Wow, mais donc ils maintiennent un certain degré de flou ... pic de la demande uniquement ? Attendons la presentation !

[energy_isere]

bien vite repéré par Aerobar !

http://aerobarfilms.over-blog.com/article-32483624.html

[ABC]

Je parie qu'ils ne tiendront pas le pari !

En effet.

Revirement énorme des prévisions du CERA

Il faut être juste, le CERA continue d'écarter l'idée d'un pic géologique prochain, et parle d'un pic de consommation. Il n'a pas changé sur le fond.

[Raminagrobis]

Il faut être juste, le CERA continue d'écarter l'idée d'un pic géologique prochain, et parle d'un pic de consommation. Il n'a pas changé sur le fond.

Je pense qu'un certain nombre de lobbys n'admettront jamais le peak oil. Ils diront que c'est l'économie qui a fait baisser la demande et par là la production.

Il y en a encoore qui nie la réalité du pic des USA (après 40 ans!) en disant que la production américaine a baissé à cause des écolos qui voulaient pas qu'on fore au large de la Californie, ou à cause des compagnies pétrolières qui ont choisit d'arrêter de forer aux US pour aller ailleurs (ce qui est particulièrement du grand n'importnawak puisqu'on fore encore aujourd'hui chaque année plus de puits aux USA que n'importe où ailleurs dans le monde).

[ABC]

Je suis assez d'accord, certains inventeront n'importe quelle histoire à dormir debout pour ne pas reconnaître qu'ils se sont trompés.
Par contre, j'ai quand même le sentiment que cela va être très dur à maintenir leur position...

[FOWLER]

Pas forcément puisqu'une majorité préfère une confusion rassurante qu'une vérité inconfortable.

[Cheb]

Il y en a encoore qui nie la réalité du pic des USA (après 40 ans!) en disant que la production américaine a baissé à cause des écolos qui voulaient pas qu'on fore au large de la Californie,

ou qui ne voulaient pas qu'on aille forer dans les parcs nationaux où certaines prospections étaient soi disant 'prometteuses' ....

[sceptique]

Je pense qu'un certain nombre de lobbys n'admettront jamais le peak oil. Ils diront que c'est l'économie qui a fait baisser la demande et par là la production.

Il y en a encore qui nie la réalité du pic des USA (après 40 ans!) en disant que la production américaine a baissé à cause des écolos qui voulaient pas qu'on fore au large de la Californie, ou à cause des compagnies pétrolières qui ont choisit d'arrêter de forer aux US pour aller ailleurs (ce qui est particulièrement du grand n'importnawak puisqu'on fore encore aujourd'hui chaque année plus de puits aux USA que n'importe où ailleurs dans le monde).

A ce sujet, j'ai bataillé ferme avec MINITAX sur Liberaux.org l'an dernier. Ce qui remarquable c'est qu'il s'agit de quelqu'un de cultivé et pas bête. Et pourtant, il est dans le déni complet de la réalité. Son discours, largement partagé est, en gros, le suivant :

Les USA n'ont pas franchi leur pic. D'ailleurs, quand ils le désireront (et que les écolos seront internés), leur production remontera.

Un peu comme le gars qui se croit immortel : difficile de lui prouver le contraire !

[energy_isere]

CERA affirme maintenant que la consommation des pays de l' OCDE à passé un peak de consommation du pétrole dés 2005.
Et que ce pic ne sera jamais plus atteint de nouveau du fait des amélioration des consommation des voitures, de la saturation du marché auto dans les pays de l' OCDE, et de la population vieillissante, et de l'amélioration de l' isolation des logements.

Attention ! Ils ne disent pas pic pétrolier mondial. Ce dont ils parlent c' est sur le périmétre OCDE.

C' est dans le New York Times.

Oil Demand Has Peaked in Developed Nations, Never to Return -- Report

Reduced petroleum demand in developed nations could make their economic growth less vulnerable to oil price shocks, the report states.

Nonetheless, global oil demand is still expected to grow, overall, driven by China and other developing nations as the world economy recovers.

But demand for oil that has fallen in recent years in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, nations won't be made up, the analysts say.

"The economic downturn has been masking a larger trend in the oil demand of developed countries," said Daniel Yergin, the company's chairman. "The fact is that OECD oil demand has been falling since late 2005, well before the Great Recession began."

The biggest reason, the group says, is that oil demand in the transportation sector -- which is the United States' dominant use of oil and accounts for 60 percent of OECD petroleum demand -- is flattening.

The trend has been noticed elsewhere, as well. Exxon Mobil Corp. CEO Rex Tillerson said this month that U.S. gasoline demand peaked in 2007.

The Cambridge Energy Research Associates, or CERA, analysis cites several reasons why demand in developed nations -- which accounts for slightly more than half the world's total -- won't recover. Among them: Car ownership rates have reached "saturation," while populations are aging and population growth ranges from low to negative.

Also, OECD governments, driven by global warming and energy security worries, have tightened fuel efficiency standards, while high prices in recent years have also pushed consumers away from gas guzzlers.

In the United States, the Obama administration plans to implement rules that push corporate average fuel economy, or CAFE, standards to a fleetwide average of 35.5 miles per gallon by 2016, four years ahead of the schedule Congress laid out in a 2007 energy law.

Use of alternative fuels like ethanol has also grown.

"New technologies such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and next-generation biofuels could also have a greater impact in the future," the report states.

Global demand will nonetheless grow, fueled mostly by developing nations, CERA finds. The company forecasts world demand to increase from 83.8 million barrels per day this year to 89.1 mbd in 2014.

"Just 900,000 bpd [barrels per day] of growth is expected to come from OECD countries, just a fraction of the 3.7 million bpd of demand lost over the course of 2005 to 2009," the report states.

But CERA cautions that developed nations will hardly be through with oil anytime soon. The demand reduction in OECD countries between the 2005 peak and 2030 is expected to be "fairly modest," it states.

Demand for oil in developed nations peaked in 2005, and changing demographics and improved motor-vehicle efficiency guarantee that it won't hit those heights again, IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates says in a new report.

http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/10/13 ... 24104.html

[energy_isere]

le CERA a sorti un nouveau rapport. Toujours aussi brillant pas de peak oil visible avant 2030 à 115 millions de baril/j.

Dans The Wall Steet Journal :

IHS CERA: Oil Supply To Grow Through 2030, Then Struggle

HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--Global oil capacity will grow over the next 20 years but after that supply may not meet demand, according to a study released Tuesday by IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

Capacity could grow as much as 115 million barrels a day, or 25% over current levels, according to study of more than 100,000 projects worldwide.

"Post-2030 could struggle to meet but this would take the form of a decades-long "undulating plateau," rather than a sharp fall," the report said.

The peak oil theory, the idea that the world will run out of oil, is a controversial one.

The Guardian newspaper in the U.K. reported last week that a whistleblower has accused the International Energy Agency of underplaying the prospect of an oil shortage.

The unnamed official claimed the agency was bowing to pressure from the U.S. to downplay the depletion of oil reserves to avoid triggering panic buying, the Guardian reported.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-200 ... 09760.html

dans cet autre lien l' analyse est plus pertinente :

The debate over peak oil rages on. The New York Times’ Green Inc. blog discussed Tuesday the latest report from IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a consulting firm with a historically optimistic view of oil resources. According to the report, released this week, the firm predicts that oil supplies will be on the rise over the next two decades, then plateau and remain flat for a couple more decades after that. More specifically, CERA shows how oil supplies will reach 115 million barrels per day (bpd) around 2030, up from today’s rate of 92 million bpd.

IHS analysts put together their forecast based on production data obtained from more than 450 fields around the world, including both OPEC nations and companies slated to tap into new resources. Their conclusions are based on three main findings:

1) The average rate of decline is far less than many pessimists assume,
around 4.5 percent
2) 60 percent of the world’s oil comes from 550 “so-called giant oil fields,”
which are in no danger of suddenly drying up
3) The world’s oil endowment, or how much oil there is in the world, is far
bigger than peak oil theorists allow for

But perhaps the most crucial finding of the whole report is that future oil production will be driven by the “above ground elements of the equation.”

“Looking ahead, we can see that the upstream industry faces many challenges,” said Peter Jackson, the study’s main author. “The longer-term problem lies not below ground, but in obtaining the investment and resources that the industry will need to grow supply significantly from current levels.”

What this basically means is that the supply of oil itself is not going to dry up and disappear, but rather that oil production will be hampered by geopolitical constraints. Future problems in the oil world will stem from limited opportunities to invest in new supply, limited access to the necessary technology to reach said supply, and political tug-of-wars. In other words, it may be in the ground, but it may not be practical to obtain. It’s the idea of “practical peak oil.”

As HeatingOil.com has reported frequently over the last month, opinions on peak oil are all over the place. 70 percent of geologists at the Petroleum Geology Conference recently said peak oil was still a cause for concern, while veteran commodities trader and analyst Stephen Schork thinks it’s a political phenomenon, much like CERA. The International Energy Agency says peak oil won’t happen for a good long time, but have also been accused recently of inflating their numbers.

So what’s the real scoop? Sadly, even if there is enough oil in the ground, some of it might very well be impossible to get to without an obscene amount of money or cost to people and the environment. We likely have more than a few minutes before severe oil shortages are a reality, but it seems like developing alternative forms of energy would be in everyone’s best interest.

http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/ihs-cera ... -20301118/

Mais on prefera lire ce qu' en dit The Oil Drum :
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5975

Time and the Latest CERA Report: Why 2030 for the Peak?

[energy_isere]

Pour le rapport de IHS CERA, c' est ici que ca se passe :
http://www.cera.com/aspx/cda/client/rep ... =10720#top

La vie est belle au CERA : (la courbe supérieure en pointillés bleus)



Il y a un pdf "summary" en accés libre d'ou j' ai extrait ce graphe. 13 pages.

Pour le reste des analyses détaillées, c' est evidemment pas gratuit.

[energy_isere]

Aucune réaction dans ce forum sur le CERA ?

Pas grave d' autres y pensent, comme dans LeBlogEnergie.

Dans un scénario improbable de consommation débridée, le CERA ne voit aucun risque de pénurie de pétrole jusqu'en 2030

Par Raymond Bonnaterre le 24 novembre 2009 LeBlogEnergie

http://www.leblogenergie.com/2009/11/da ... %A9tr.html

[GillesH38]

je signale en passant que les scénarios du CERA pour le pétrole sont à peu près ceux du GIEC. Méchants d'un coté, gentils de l'autre ? ils disent la même chose....