Le gaz en Chine

[energy_isere]

Le nouvel appétit de la Chine pour le gaz, au cœur du dynamisme du marché à long terme


Agence Ecofin 3 juillet 2023

Les efforts de la Chine pour obtenir des contrats à long terme ont commencé en 2021, sous l’impulsion de l’amélioration des relations avec les États-Unis et de la nécessité de diversifier les importations face aux perturbations géopolitiques.

Malgré l’atténuation de la crise énergétique mondiale, la Chine s’approvisionne en gaz, à un rythme jamais enregistré. Pékin aide en effet les acheteurs publics à conclure des contrats à long terme et à investir dans des terminaux d’importation, partout dans le pays. D’ailleurs, le pays est en passe de devenir le premier importateur mondial de gaz naturel liquéfié (GNL) en 2023.

D’après le cabinet d’analyses norvégien Rystad Energy, les importations chinoises de GNL pourraient doubler pour atteindre 138 millions de tonnes d’ici 2033. Il faut remarquer que les entreprises chinoises signent actuellement plus de contrats à long terme que n’importe quel autre pays dans le monde.

Cette année, la Chine a représenté 33 % des volumes mondiaux de GNL à long terme signés. Ces contrats offrent plus de stabilité des prix par rapport au marché spot volatile, ce qui les rend plus intéressants pour la sécurité énergétique et les objectifs de croissance économique de la Chine.

Pour expliquer ce nouvel appétit, les autorités du ministère de l’Énergie ont indiqué que le pays cherche à éviter les pénuries d’énergie en diversifiant ses sources d’approvisionnement. Elles ont ajouté que le pays pourrait revendre les cargaisons contractées à d’autres acheteurs pendant les périodes de faible demande intérieure.

Tout ceci arrive dans un contexte où la Chine stimule sa production nationale de gaz et explore la possibilité d’acheminer du gaz russe par voie terrestre, grâce à de nouveaux gazoducs. Le gouvernement chinois encourage les géants de l’énergie à augmenter la production nationale de gaz, à réduire les coûts de forage et à renforcer l’autosuffisance.

https://www.agenceecofin.com/gaz/0307-1 ... long-terme

[energy_isere]

CNOOC Limited Discovers in China Deep Coalbed Methane Field with Proved Gas In-place of over 100 Billion Cubic Meters

le 23/10/2023 europetrole

CNOOC Limited announces that it has discovered the Shenfu deep coalbed methane (CBM) field in China, adding proved gas in-place of over 100 billion cubic meters.

The Shenfu deep CBM field is located in Yulin, Shaanxi Province at the eastern edge of Ordos Basin. With continued research and exploration, the Company has advanced its understanding of deep coalbed methane formation mechanism, reservoir transformation and differentiated drainage technology, which have led to the successful discovery of the Shenfu deep CBM field. The discovery well SM2-33-CH1 encounters 16.5 meters of coal seam at a burial depth of approximately 2,011 meters, which is tested to produce approximately 19,000 cubic meters per day after fracturing operations. The Chinese governmental authorities have evaluated and approved the proved gas in-place of over 110 billion cubic meters, making it China's first large deep CBM field of the scale. It is another major onshore discovery by CNOOC Limited after the discovery made in Linxing, Shanxi Province, with similar proved gas in-place volumes.

https://www.euro-petrole.com/cnooc-limi ... -n-i-26203

[energy_isere]

China's Natural Gas Imports Rose by 14% in First Half of 2024

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jul 12, 2024

China’s imports of natural gas, including via pipeline and LNG cargoes, increased by 14.3% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period of last year.

China imported 64.65 million tons of natural gas in the first six months of 2024, LNG Prime reported on Friday, citing data from China’s General Administration of Customs.
The Chinese import bill for the first half fell by 0.8% to $31.7 billion, the data showed, as LNG prices were lower than year-ago levels early this year.

Chinese imports of natural gas inched up by just 0.4% in June 2024 compared to the same month last year.

China boosted its natural gas imports in the period January to April, as it looked to stockpile fuel for the power plants ahead of the summer amid international prices that were half last year’s levels in the first four months of 2024. Chinese imports of natural gas were estimated to have jumped by 21% between January and April compared to a year earlier.

The Asian benchmark LNG prices averaged a little over $9 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the first quarter of 2024, compared to an average LNG price for delivery into north Asia of $18 per MMBtu in the first quarter of last year, per Bloomberg’s estimates.

However, spot LNG prices for delivery to North Asia increased in the late spring and early summer and have topped $12/MMBtu in recent weeks, which resulted in a decline in Chinese spot demand, analysts told Reuters last week.
China could beat its 2021 all-time high of LNG imports this year, as industrial and commercial sectors are set to drive demand for the super-chilled fuel, an official at state-held energy giant PetroChina said in May.

Chinese LNG imports hit a record high of 78.8 million metric tons in 2021. The following year saw the first decline in LNG imports as prices soared in the energy crisis after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Last year, China imported around 71.2 million metric tons of LNG.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... -2024.html

[energy_isere]

China Natural Gas Consumption Expected to Rise by Up to 7.7% This Year

By Irina Slav - Jul 24, 2024

China’s natural gas consumption is this year expected to be between 6.5% and 7.7% higher than last year’s, potentially reaching 425 billion cubic meters, Xinhua reported, citing data from the National Energy Administration.

Domestic production could supply around half of that, as it is seen reaching 246 billion cubic meters, up 10 billion cubic meters on 2023, the regulator also said.
Last year, China consumed 394.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas, which was 7.6% higher than 2022 consumption. Domestic production hit 230 billion cubic meters last year, which was a record, set to be broken this year.

Production continued to grow strongly this year as well. Over the first half, it increased by 6% as state companies are boosting domestic output with new field start-ups. Total production stood at 123.6 billion cubic meters in January to June. In June alone, China’s natural gas production jumped by 9.6% compared to the same month of 2023, according to the official statistics data.

At the same time, imports went up as well, as the country’s total consumption rose. Over the first half of the year, imports, including pipeline and LNG, added 14.3% to 64.65 million tons, not least because gas prices declined, making the commodity more affordable for Chinese buyers.

The Asian benchmark LNG prices averaged a little over $9 per million British thermal units in the first quarter of 2024, compared to an average LNG price for delivery into north Asia of $18 per MMBtu in the first quarter of last year, per Bloomberg estimates.
China has been working hard to boost its domestic production of energy commodities to reduce its reliance on imports. Earlier this month, the government in Beijing set up a new umbrella company to that end, including oil giants CNPC and Sinopec as well as companies from other industries, such as China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp and steelmaker Baowu, as well as equipment manufacturer Sinomach and Dongfang Electric Group, a maker of power generators.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... -Year.html

[energy_isere]

CNOOC Adds Massive Gas Reserves in South China Sea Discovery

By Charles Kennedy - Aug 07, 2024,

China’s authorities have approved the proved gas in-place volumes of over 100 billion cubic meters in a new discovery in the western part of the South China Sea, which is the world’s first large ultra-shallow gas play in ultra-deepwater, state oil and gas giant CNOOC said on Wednesday.

The proved gas in place at the Lingshui 36-1 gas field, which stands at over 100 billion cubic meters, is now made official after the Chinese governmental authorities approved it, two months after the company announced the major exploration breakthrough in ultra-shallow gas play in ultra-deepwater South China Sea.
The Lingshui 36-1 gas field is located in the western South China Sea, with an average water depth of approximately 1,500 meters (4,921 ft). The main gas-bearing play is the Ledong Formation of Quaternary, with an average burial depth of 210 meters (689 ft). The field has been tested to produce over 10 million cubic meters per day of open-flow natural gas, CNOOC says.

“Ultra-shallow gas reservoirs are important sources of hydrocarbon in deep waters,” CNOOC’s Chief Geologist Xu Changgui said.

Zhou Xinhuai, CEO and President of the Chinese giant, commented,

“The newly discovered ultra-deep-water ultra-shallow gas field is an important composition of the trillion-cubic-meters gas region in the South China Sea.”
CNOOC and other Chinese state-owned energy giants are boosting domestic oil and gas exploration and production to keep up with government guidance for increased production to enhance China’s domestic energy supply and energy security.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... overy.html

[energy_isere]

China’s Gas Demand Surges with Urban Growth and LNG Boom

By Irina Slav - Nov 15, 2024,

China has been the focus of oil traders' attention for years thanks to its seemingly insatiable demand for the fuel. Now, the country is about to cast itself as the star of the natural gas show as well.

Last year, China’s natural gas consumption hit 394.5 billion cu m—a 7% annual increase, analysts from Columbia University’s Center of Global Energy Policy wrote in a recent paper. The authors noted that while most of the new demand came from industrial consumers, urban heating and cooking demand rose much faster, adding 10% versus 8% for industrial gas consumption. It seems this trend will accelerate.

In a recent column looking into China and natural gas, energy analyst John Kemp wrote that demand for natural gas for heating and cooking purposes in Chinese cities would drive the country’s overall gas demand growth, even as it remains a small part of the electricity generation mix.

Kemp noted the expansion of China’s natural gas pipeline infrastructure, driven by that very same urban gas demand, which saw the total length of transmission and distribution pipelines swell from less than 40,000 km in 2000, to over 1 million km as of last year. The expansion was prompted by the rising numbers of households connected to the gas grid: from fewer than 50 million back in 2003 to 471 million in 2023, Kemp wrote, citing data from the Chinese statistics bureau.

So, the demand for natural gas in China is on the rise, and the biggest contributors to this rise are retail consumers in large cities. It is this retail demand that gas traders and producers should probably focus on with a view to their own future demand prospects, although electricity generation and petrochemicals will also be factors driving gas demand higher in the coming years.

According to Kemp, gas for electricity generation is somewhat negligible because most of China’s electricity still comes from coal and hydro, as well as a massive amount of wind and solar installations. Reuters’ Gavin Maguire also recently noted that natural gas generation only makes up a tiny portion of the total energy mix, at a puny 2.8% this year, down from 3% last year.

However, Maguire also pointed out that this puny 2.8% was, in absolute terms, a record high amount for gas power generators, at 188 TWh for the first eight months of the year. The amount was an increase of 1.5% from the first eight months of 2023 and a reason for optimism among gas bulls. This optimism, however, should be accompanied by caution because China is unlikely to plan on boosting its reliance on gas for power generation—not when it already depends on imports for between 40 and 45% of its consumption, per Kemp.

Of course, these numbers may be a reason for caution among Chinese planners, but they are the opposite for gas producers. China has already become the world’s largest importer of liquefied natural gas, and it’s only going to grow larger, according to one Cheniere Energy executive.

Chinese demand for natural gas is set to jump by more than 50% by 2040, from 400 billion cubic meters now to more than 600 billion cu m, Cheniere director of LNG origination Yingying Zhou said at the Asia Gas Markets conference in October. He added that Cheniere expected China to become the world’s first market with 100 million tons of LNG demand very soon. LNG will represent about 25%-30% of China’s total natural gas demand in this scenario.

LNG demand specifically will benefit from the increased appeal of LNG-powered trucks in China, which are replacing diesel-powered vehicles. In just the first half of this year, LNG truck sales rose by 104% on the year, after logging a 307% surge in 2023, the CGEP paper said. In absolute numbers, the 2023 total stood at 152,000 trucks—and that growth pattern continues this year. Likewise, LNG subsequently saw strong LNG demand—that is, until prices rose.

China may be the biggest importer of LNG and is likely to get bigger, but it is a price-sensitive buyer, too, and sellers would do well to bear this in mind. The country has been gobbling up LNG cargos to fill its storage ahead of winter and avoid another energy crunch, but it has been gobbling up relatively cheap LNG cargos—precisely because they were relatively cheap. The moment spot prices spike, China starts importing less LNG.

The country is also boosting its domestic supply of the commodity to limit its dependence on imports. Last year, total gas output rose by 5.6% over the previous year. This year, it has continued to grow, adding 6% in just the first half of the year.

China, then, will be a key force to reckon with in the natural gas space even as it continues building out its wind and solar capacity. It will rightly be the focus of traders’ attention for years to come, just as it is with crude oil now. Yet it would pay not to pin all demand growth hopes on China alone—the country is demonstrating rather disciplined approach to demand management in that energy supply segment.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas ... -Boom.html

[energy_isere]

La baisse des importations chinoises de gaz sème le doute chez les exportateurs

RFI le : 04/04/2025

C’est le nouveau casse-tête du marché du gaz : la Chine, première consommatrice d’hydrocarbures, achète moins de gaz sur le marché international et cherche à en produire de plus en plus sur son territoire. Un changement de stratégie qui n'est pas sans conséquence pour le secteur.


Cette tendance se traduit par une réduction des importations de gaz par voie maritime. Sur les deux premiers mois de l’année, ces achats ont atteint leur plus bas niveau depuis sept ans et pour le Premier trimestre, on se dirige vers une baisse de 20 %. La tendance est si forte que plusieurs cabinets d'analyse ont baissé les prévisions d'achats de la Chine pour 2025.

La première explication est que la demande a diminué, mais aussi que le pays s'approvisionne autrement : l'Empire du Milieu importe plus de gaz par pipeline de Russie et du Kazakhstan et la production locale chinoise est en hausse, + 6 % l’année dernière. Les géants chinois des hydrocarbures tels que Sinopec et Cnooc ont relevé leurs objectifs de production de gaz. Le gaz représente désormais 54 % de la production de Petrochina, selon l'agence Bloomberg.

Les équilibres du marché en question

Exxon Mobil, Shell ou TotalEnergies avaient tablé ces dernières années sur une croissance de la demande chinoise pendant des décennies. « En 2024 encore, la Chine représentait à elle seule plus d’un quart de la croissance de la demande mondiale de gaz », explique Greg Molnar, l'expert en gaz de l'Agence internationale de l'Énergie (AIE).

Ces compagnies pétrolières internationales ont investi des milliards de dollars dans des projets de GNL aux États-Unis et au Qatar avec l'objectif d'augmenter la capacité de production de 50 % dans les cinq prochaines années. Le ralentissement des achats chinois sème dorénavant le doute sur le rôle que jouera la Chine dans les prochains mois dans la croissance du marché et sur l'état de la demande chinoise.

D'autant que le pays a considérablement réduit aussi ses achats pour une livraison immédiate, mais privilégie désormais des contrats de GNL à long terme, indexés sur le pétrole, « ce qui met en évidence la relative conscience des prix des acheteurs chinois », relève l'expert de l'AIE.

Les Européens peuvent-ils en profiter ?

À court terme, cette situation pourrait faire l’affaire des Européens, qui sont en concurrence avec l'Empire du Milieu pour acheter du GNL. Moins de bateaux qui partent vers la Chine, c’est plus de volumes disponibles pour l’Europe, et peut-être à meilleur prix.

Un atout de taille pour les acheteurs européens qui ont vidé leur stock ces derniers mois et vont devoir le reconstituer avant l’hiver prochain. Les importations de GNL en Europe occidentale ont d’ailleurs atteint leur plus haut niveau pour un mois de mars, jamais enregistré depuis 2017, selon les données de suivi des navires compilées par Bloomberg.

Autre conséquence, la demande actuelle et la moindre croissance de la demande chinoise pousse « de nombreux acheteurs chinois à renforcer leurs capacités de négoce et à revendre leurs cargaisons de GNL à d’autres marchés, qui sont prêts à payer une prime dans les conditions de marché tendues actuelles », note Greg Molnar.

https://www.rfi.fr/fr/podcasts/chroniqu ... portateurs