La production pétroliére des USA

[energy_isere]

Oil Prices Continue To Climb As Pace Of Drilling Continues To Slow

By Julianne Geiger - Aug 04, 2023,

The total number of active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 5 again this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published Friday.

The total rig count fell to 659 this week. So far this year, Baker Hughes has estimated a loss of 120 active drilling rigs. This week’s count is 416 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019 prior to the pandemic.
The number of oil rigs declined by 4 this week to 525, down by 96 so far in 2023. The number of gas rigs stayed the same at 128, a loss of 28 active gas rigs from the start of the year. Miscellaneous rigs lost 1 rig this last week.

The rig count in the Permian Basin slipped by 5 rigs—18 rigs below this same time last year. The rig count in the Eagle Ford fell by 1, and is now 18 fewer than this time last year.

Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells (which is cheaper than drilling new wells), fell this week. The frac spread count slipped to 268 in the week ending July 28, down from 274 in the week prior. The frac spread count is 10 higher than where it started the year.

Crude oil production levels in the United States stayed at 12.2 million bpd in the week ending July 28, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates—on par with production levels at the beginning of the year. U.S. production levels are now up 100,000 bpd versus a year ago.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... -Slow.html

[energy_isere]

USA Oil Output to Hit Record This Year

by Bloomberg|Julia Fanzeres, Chunzi Xu|Wednesday, August 09, 2023

US oil production this year will rise faster than previously expected, providing additional crude supplies to a market that has tightened because of Saudi Arabian output cuts, according to a new government forecast.

Higher-than-expected well productivity and rising crude prices will help boost US production to a record 12.8 million barrels a day in 2023, up from a previous forecast of 12.6 million, according to a monthly report from the US Energy Information Administration released Tuesday. The US averaged about 11.9 million barrels a day in 2022.

The additional US production would help supply a market that has tightened after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies cut output to prop up prices. Cartel leader Saudi Arabia recently extended its 1 million barrel per day production cuts for another month, sending its output to the lowest in years.

Production in both the US and globally is forecast to increase further next year. World output will grow to 103 million barrels a day in 2024, up 1.7 million barrels per day from this year, the EIA said. Over 70% of that growth is expected to come from non-OPEC countries, led by the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Norway. US output will climb to 13.1 million barrels a day next year, the agency said.

Meanwhile, US consumption of refined products this year will be lower than previously expected, the EIA said. The country will use 4% less jet fuel in the third quarter than in its prior forecast as the US air travel boom starts to lose steam. The agency’s forecasts for gasoline and diesel consumption also were adjusted lower for both the third quarter and full year.

Still, the EIA’s forecast for total oil demand in the US this year was increased because of the growing use of natural gas liquids.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/usa_o ... 3-article/

Difficile à croire alors que la production est scotchée à 12.2-12.3 millions de b/jour entre janvier et juillet de cette année.

[tita]

Difficile à croire alors que la production est scotchée à 12.2-12.3 millions de b/jour entre janvier et juillet de cette année.

Petites précisions à ce propos. L'EIA produit différents rapports, et c'est pas toujours coordonné entre eux. En particulier, les 12.2-12.3 Mb/j que tu cites proviennent du rapport hebdomadaire, qui est basé sur des estimations.

Hier, ils ont relevé leurs estimations à 12.6 Mb/j, alors qu'en effet c'était resté à 12.2-12.3 Mb/j depuis janvier. Mais c'est un ajustement pour se raccorder au rapport mensuel, plus fiable, qui lui est à 12.6 Mb/j depuis janvier, avec une production à presque 12.8 Mb/j en mars.

Crude Oil Production Re-benchmarking Notice: When we release the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) each month, the weekly estimates of domestic crude oil production are reviewed to identify any differences between recent trends in survey-based domestic production reported in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) and other current data. If we find a large difference between the two series, we may re-benchmark the weekly production estimate on weeks when we release STEO. This week’s domestic crude oil production estimate incorporates a re-benchmarking that increased estimated volumes by 417,000 barrels per day, which is about 3.3% of this week’s estimated production total.

Faut pas prendre les chiffres du rapport hebdomadaire comme fiables. C'est pourquoi j'observe surtout le rapport mensuel.

Y'a un troisième rapport important, c'est le STEO, qui fait des prédictions sur la production. Là, c'est remonté récemment, avec une projection à 13 Mb/j fin 2023, et 13.4 Mb/j fin 2024. Là aussi, faut prendre des pincettes. Par contre, ça reprend les chiffres du rapport mensuel.

L'article fait référence à ce rapport, avec une production moyenne sur 2023 de 12.8 Mb/j, mais sur la base de prédictions sur les mois de juin à décembre.

On peut noter qu'en 2019, la production US moyenne était de 12.3 Mb/j. En 2023, on est à une production moyenne de 12.6 Mb/j (janvier à mai), selon le rapport mensuel. Donc y'a de fortes chances que la production US soit plus élevée en 2023 qu'en 2019, établissant un nouveau record.

[Jeudi]

L’inscription à oleocene demande toujours de répondre 1970?

[energy_isere]

This Is When USA Oil Output Will Average Over 13MM Barrels Per Day

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone Staff|Tuesday, August 15, 2023

U.S. crude oil production will average more than 13 million barrels per day in the second quarter of next year and keep rising, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released in August.

The latest STEO sees crude oil production in the country coming in at 13.01 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2024, before increasing to 13.08 million barrels per day in the third quarter of next year, and 13.27 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2024.

U.S. crude oil production is expected to average 12.81 million barrels per day in the third quarter of this year and 12.93 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the August STEO shows. This output averaged 12.67 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2023, 12.63 million barrels per day in the first quarter, 12.30 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2022, 12.05 million barrels per day in the third quarter of last year, 11.77 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and 11.52 million barrels per day in the first quarter, the August STEO showed.

Overall, the EIA’s latest STEO projects that U.S. crude oil output will average 12.76 million barrels per day in 2023 and 13.09 million barrels per day in 2024. Production averaged 11.91 million barrels per day last year, according to the STEO.
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https://www.rigzone.com/news/this_is_wh ... 0-article/

[energy_isere]

Rig Count Decline Accelerates Amid Rising U.S. Crude Oil Production

By Julianne Geiger - Aug 18, 2023

The total number of active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 12 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published Friday.

The total rig count fell to 652 this week. So far this year, Baker Hughes has estimated a loss of 136 active drilling rigs. This week’s count is 54 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019 prior to the pandemic.
The number of oil rigs fell by 5 this week to 520, down by 101 so far in 2023. The number of gas rigs fell by 6 to 117, a loss of 39 active gas rigs from the start of the year. Miscellaneous rigs fell by 1.

The rig count in the Permian Basin stayed the same—18 rigs below this same time last year. The rig count in the Eagle Ford also stayed the same, and is now 19 fewer than this time last year.

Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells (which is cheaper than drilling new wells), fell again this week. The frac spread count rose to 262 in the week ending August 11, up from 257 in the week prior. The frac spread count is 4 moew than where it started the year.

Crude oil production levels in the United States rose for the second week in a row, to 12.7 million bpd in the week ending August 11, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates—the highest production levels according to weekly data since 2019. U.S. production levels are now up 500,000 bpd versus a year ago.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... ction.html

[energy_isere]

Permian Rig Count Drops Amid Rising U.S. Crude Production

By Julianne Geiger - Aug 25, 2023

The total number of active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 10 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published Friday.

The total rig count fell to 632 this week. So far this year, Baker Hughes has estimated a loss of 133 active drilling rigs.
The number of oil rigs fell by 8 this week to 512, down by 93 from a year ago. The number of gas rigs fell by 2 to 115, a loss of 43 active gas rigs from a year ago. Miscellaneous rigs remained the same.

The rig count in the Permian Basin fell by 7 to 320, while rigs in the Eagle Ford dropped by 1, to 52 rigs.

Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells (which is cheaper than drilling new wells), fell this week. The frac spread count fell to 256 in the week ending August 18, down from 262 in the week prior. The frac spread count is 2 less than where it started the year.

Crude oil production levels in the United States were at 12.8 million barrels per day in the week ending August 18, representing the third consecutive weekly increase in production, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/P ... ction.html

[tita]

Crude oil production levels in the United States were at 12.8 million barrels per day in the week ending August 18, representing the third consecutive weekly increase in production, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates.

Après plusieurs mois où le rapport hebdomadaire sous-estimait fortement la production US (de 400-500 kb/j, cf mes messages sur le rapport mensuel), je pense qu'actuellement ils sont dans une sur-estimation. Je confirmerai ça dans 3 mois quand les données mensuelles seront connues.

Pendant un moment, y'avait pas trop de différences, ce qui me laissait penser qu'ils avaient amélioré leurs méthodes d'estimations. Mais avec les fortes sous-estimations entre janvier et juillet, je continue de penser que ça sert pas à grand chose de prendre ça comme un indicateur fiable.

Le nombre de forages a diminué de quasiment 20% depuis fin 2022. Pour le bassin permien, c'est une diminution de 10%. Je pense que la production va soit se stabiliser, soit diminuer. Elle ne va pas chuter (comme en 2020).

[tita]

Derniers chiffres mensuels de l'EIA pour la production de juin dernier.

La production a augmenté, passant de 12'637 kb/j à 12'844 kb/j, soit une augmentation de 207 kb/j. La production offshore a augmenté de 147 kb/j à 1'853 kb/j ce qui fait que la production onshore a augmenté de 60 kb/j. Sur les 5 derniers mois, la production onshore a augmenté de 326 kb/j. Les estimations hebdomadaires étaient à 12'320 kb/j, une sous-estimation de 524 kb/j

Sur les 12 derniers mois (juin. 2022-juin. 2023), la production US a augmenté de 1044 kb/j.

Petite surprise, avec une augmentation de la production onshore, malgré le fait que les forages et nombre de puits complétés sont en diminution. La production US atteint un record à nouveau depuis mars 2020, tout proche de son record absolu à 13 Mb/j en novembre 2019. C'est aussi un rapport qui fait des révisions très loin dans le temps, 10 ans, de 1-2 kb/j de différence.

Le décalage entre les estimations hebdomadaires et mensuelles était énorme en juin. Récemment, l'EIA a révisé ses estimations hebdomadaire pour recoller à la production réelle.

Dans le prochain rapport, ce serait pour moi une surprise de voir la production augmenter.

[energy_isere]

Drilling Continues To Disappoint As Oil Prices Climb

By Julianne Geiger - Sep 01, 2023,

The total number of active drilling rigs in the United States fell by 1 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published Friday.

The total rig count fell to 631 this week. So far this year, Baker Hughes has estimated a loss of 148 active drilling rigs. This week’s count is 444 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019 prior to the pandemic.
The number of oil rigs stayed the same this week at 512, down by 109 so far in 2023. The number of gas rigs fell by 1 to 114, a loss of 42 active gas rigs from the start of the year. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same this week.

The rig count in the Permian Basin fell by 1 this week—23 rigs below this same time last year. The rig count in the Eagle Ford fell by 2, and is now 21 fewer than this time last year.

Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells (which is cheaper than drilling new wells), fell again this week. The frac spread count fell to 246 in the week ending August 25, down from 256 in the week prior. The frac spread count is 12 fewer than where it started the year.

Crude oil production levels in the United States stayed the same this week, at 12.8 million bpd in the week ending August 25, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates—sitting at the highest production level since 2019. U.S. production levels are now up 700,000 bpd versus a year ago.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... Climb.html

[tita]

Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells (which is cheaper than drilling new wells), fell again this week. The frac spread count fell to 246 in the week ending August 25, down from 256 in the week prior. The frac spread count is 12 fewer than where it started the year.

J'ai jamais vraiment trop regardé cette stat. Je me basais sur les complétions données par l'EIA (le rapport DPR). Pour l'historique, c'est ici:

https://www.aogr.com/web-exclusives/us- ... count/2023

Tout comme pour le décompte des forages, ça n'indique pas combien de puits sont complétés, mais combien d'équipes sont actives. Le "Rig count" compte combien d'appareils de forages sont actifs (creusent des puits).

Ce décompte se situe à 244 actuellement. Il était monté à presque 300 en mars-avril, et était descendu à 50 en mai 2020, le niveau le plus bas de ces dernières années. En 2016, il était tombé à ~150.

[energy_isere]

Rig Count Sees Small Gain As WTI Holds At $87

By Julianne Geiger - Sep 08, 2023,

The total number of active drilling rigs in the United States rose by 1 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published Friday.

The total rig count rebounded to 632 this week. So far this year, Baker Hughes has estimated a loss of 147 active drilling rigs. This week’s count is 443 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019 prior to the pandemic.
The number of oil rigs rose by 1 this week to 513, down by 108 so far in 2023. The number of gas rigs fell by 1 again this week to 113, a loss of 43 active gas rigs from the start of the year. Miscellaneous rigs rose by 1 this week.

The rig count in the Permian Basin rose by 1 this week—20 rigs below this same time last year. The rig count in the Eagle Ford fell by 1, and is now 22 fewer than this time last year.

Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells (which is cheaper than drilling new wells), fell for a third week in a row for week ending September 1, to 244, down from 246 in the week prior. The frac spread count is 12 fewer than where it started the year.

Crude oil production levels in the United States stayed the same this week, at 12.8 million bpd in the week ending September 1, according to the latest weekly EIA estimates—sitting at the highest production level since 2019. U.S. production levels are now up 700,000 bpd versus a year ago.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... At-87.html

[tita]

Après plusieurs mois de baisse, le décompte des forages remonte avec 2 semaines d'afilèe de hausse.

[tita]

Après plusieurs mois de baisse, le décompte des forages remonte avec 2 semaines d'afilèe de hausse.

Et cette semaine, c'est de nouveau nettement à la baisse. -8 pour les forages pétroliers, -3 pour les forages gaziers.

[energy_isere]

How Much Crude Oil Will the USA Produce in 2023 and 2024 ?

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone Staff|Tuesday, September 19, 2023

Well, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released last week, U.S. crude oil production will average 12.78 million barrels per day in 2023 and 13.16 million barrels per day in 2024.

Broken down quarterly, the EIA sees U.S. crude oil output averaging :
12.86 million barrels per day in the third quarter,
12.94 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter,
13.03 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year,
13.09 million barrel per day in the second quarter of 2024,
13.15 million barrel per day in the third quarter, and
13.36 million barrel per day in the fourth quarter.

This production averaged 12.63 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 12.71 million barrels per day in the second quarter, the September STEO highlighted.

According to the STEO, in 2023, the Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, will produce 10.51 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of Mexico will produce 1.85 million barrels per day, and Alaska will produce 0.43 million barrels per day. In 2024, the Lower 48 will produce 10.85 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of Mexico will produce 1.90 million barrels per day, and Alaska will produce 0.41 million barrels per day, the STEO showed.

Lower 48 output is projected to average 10.59 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 10.60 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 10.66 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 10.75 million barrels per day in the second quarter of next year, 10.90 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 11.06 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the report revealed.

This production averaged 10.31 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 10.52 million barrels per day in the second quarter, the STEO highlighted.

In its previous STEO, which was released in August, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production would come in at 12.76 million barrels per day in 2023 and 13.09 million barrels per day in 2024. Lower 48 production was expected to come in at 10.52 million barrels per day in 2023 and 10.81 million barrels per day in 2024, Federal Gulf of Mexico output was expected to average 1.81 million barrels per day this year and 1.87 million barrels per next year, and Alaska production was anticipated to average 0.43 million barrels per day in 2023 and 0.41 million barrels per day in 2024.

“We forecast global liquid fuels production will increase by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023 despite recent voluntary decreases in production from OPEC+,” the EIA noted in its September STEO.

“Global production in our forecast increases by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024. Non-OPEC production is the main driver of global production growth in our forecast, increasing by 2.0 million barrels per day in 2023 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2024, led by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana,” the EIA added.

“We expect Russia’s production will decline by 0.3 million barrels per day on average this year and remain relatively unchanged in 2024. We forecast that OPEC crude oil production will fall by 0.8 million barrels per day in 2023 and increase by 0.4 million barrels per day in 2024,” the EIA continued.

According to figures available on the EIA website, which stretch from the 1850s to 2022 and were last updated in August 2023, yearly U.S. field production of crude oil has never averaged 13 million barrels per day.

The highest output figure shown in the data came in 2019, when U.S. field production of crude oil was revealed to have averaged 12.311 million barrel per day. This production came in at 11.911 million barrels per day in 2022, 11.268 million barrels per day in 2021, and 11.318 million barrels per day in 2020, according to the data.

According to the Energy Institute’s (EI) first, and the overall 72nd, annual statistical review of world energy, U.S. crude oil and condensate production was 11.887 million barrels per day last year.

This figure marked a 5.6 percent year on year increase in production and 14.6 percent of global crude oil and condensate output in 2022, which was the highest of any nation last year, the EI review outlined.

Russia came in second with 10.669 million barrels, which marked a two percent year on year increase and 13.1 percent of the global total, and Saudi Arabia came in third with 10.509 million barrels per day, which marked an 11.9 percent year on year increase and 12.9 percent of the global total, the EI review showed.

https://www.rigzone.com/news/how_much_c ... 1-article/