Prédictions NOAA sur la saison cyclonique 2006

[sceptique]

Pas vraiment HS, plutot un avant gout de ce qui va se généraliser aux USA. D'un autre coté pour les libéraux américains le problème porte en soi sa solution : quand les pauvres, faute de soins, seront morts le problème sera réglé. De plus on pourra ainsi récupérer définitivement les sommes allouées pour le "social". A noter que les "blancs riches" en Floride (fief du frérot Bush) font face aux cyclones, eux.
Finalement, la société américaine est d'une logique implacable.

[frgo84]

Hurricane warning issued for Florida

Monday, June 12, 2006; Posted: 2:07 p.m. EDT (18:07 GMT)

story.alberto.0945.noaa.jpg
Satellite image shows Tropical Storm Alberto off Florida's west coast at 9:45 a.m. EDT.
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TAMPA, Florida (AP) -- Forecasters issued a hurricane warning for parts of Florida's Gulf Coast on Monday as the first named storm of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season quickly gained strength in the Gulf of Mexico.

The warning from Longboat Key near Sarasota to the Ochlockonee River south of Tallahassee means Tropical Storm Alberto was expected to produce hurricane conditions within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Longboat Key to Englewood. (Projected path)

"We're talking about powerful forces of nature," Florida Gov. Jeb Bush said. "People need to take this very seriously."

At 2 p.m., Alberto's winds were at 70 mph, up from 50 mph earlier Monday. The storm was centered about 155 miles south of Apalachicola and was moving northeast at about 10 mph, National Hurricane Center forecasters said.

The storm's sustained winds would have to hit 74 mph to make it a hurricane.(Web site taking bets on deadliness of hurricanes -- 2:28)

Alberto's core wasn't expected to reach Florida until Tuesday, but with tropical storm-force wind stretching 230 miles from the center, powerful gusts may be felt long before it makes landfall.

The storm's outer bands brought rain on the state Sunday, and forecasters warned that tornadoes were possible in west-central and northwestern Florida Monday night.

Heavy rain from Alberto drenched Havana, Cuba, and Pinar del Rio province to the west throughout the weekend, causing some minor street flooding. The official Prensa Latina news agency reported Monday a handful of old buildings around Havana crumbled in the heavy rains, a common occurrence during even the weakest storms, but there were no immediate reports of other major damage or injuries.

In Florida, 4 to 10 inches of rain could fall on the peninsula through Tuesday, forecasters said.

The prospect of a rain -- as long as it didn't come with hurricane-force wind -- was welcomed by firefighters who have been battling wildfires for six weeks on Florida's Atlantic coast.

"A good soaking rain would do a lot to help stop the fires in our area," said Pat Kuehn, a spokeswoman for Volusia County Fire Services. "It has been a hard fire season. We've had several fires a week here." (Watch people in Florida keep an eye on storm -- 1:30)

The tropical depression that produced Alberto formed Saturday, nine days after the official start of the hurricane season, in the northwest Caribbean, which can produce typically weak storms that follow a similar track this time of year, forecasters said. It became a named storm when its sustained winds reached 39 mph.

Scientists say the 2006 season could produce as many as 16 named storms, six of them major hurricanes.

Last year's hurricane season was the most destructive on record. Hurricane Katrina devastated Louisiana and Mississippi and was blamed for more than 1,570 deaths among Louisiana residents alone.

It also was the busiest in 154 years of storm tracking, with a records 28 named storms and a record 15 hurricanes. Meteorologists used up their list of 21 proper names -- beginning with Arlene and ending with Wilma -- and had to use the Greek alphabet to name storms for the first time.

The first named storm of 2005 was Tropical Storm Arlene, which formed June 9 and made landfall just west of Pensacola in the Florida Panhandle.

C'est le premier de la saison.

[Tiennel]

Quelqu'un sait-il à quoi correspond l'impressionnante anomalie thermique au large de Terre-Neuve ?



A part cela, le GOMEX a l'air bien sage pour le moment.

[fabinoo]

Quelqu'un sait-il à quoi correspond l'impressionnante anomalie thermique au large de Terre-Neuve ?

A notre canicule du mois d'août, pourquoi ?

Plus sérieusement, je ne sais pas, mais elle n'a pour l'instant rien d'anormal, il y en a de temps en temps comme ça, en positif ou négatif. Si elle devait durer plusieurs mois, ce serait moins normal.

[ataman]

le site Stormtrack indiqué par Devenson propose sur la colonne de gauche des liens et des pubs qui lui donnent une couleur très bushiste (amusant pour un site ayant trait au risque climatologique...), dont un extraordinaire: http://betoniraq.com/
ou comment faire du jus en spéculant sur l'Irak, sidérant ! Monumental !
Kolossaaaal !

[Yves]

Up, c'est un sujet important. En plus, la Méditerranée est en train de bouillir !!

[AJH]

Bonjour

Malgrès le peu d'activité cyclonique à ce jour, NOAA maintient sa prévision d'une année 2006 très active ...

NOAA CONTINUES TO PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL HURRICANE SEASON

August 8, 2006 —
With the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season upon us, experts from NOAA are reiterating their prediction for an above-normal number of storms. NOAA scientists warn this year's relatively quiet start is not an indication of what the remainder of the season has in store. (Click NOAA image for larger view of updated 2006 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. Please credit “NOAA.”)

"This year's three named storms may pale in comparison to the record nine storms that formed through early August 2005, but conditions will be favorable for above-normal activity for the rest of this season—so we are not off the hook by any means," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

.../...

For the entire 2006 season, which ends November 30, NOAA is projecting a total of 12 to 15 named storms of which seven to nine will intensify to hurricanes, including three or four becoming major hurricanes—rated at Category 3 or higher. This forecast is slightly lower than the outlook issued in May, but remains above the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Suite: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2678.htm